The automotive "chip shortage" is expected to ease in the fourth quarter

On September 6, Daimler CEO Kang Songlin said that the global semiconductor shortage will continue until next year. Institutions predict that global automobile production may be reduced by more than 7 million vehicles in 2021. my country's domestic automobile chip supply problem is expected to improve month by month starting from the fourth quarter.

The production side is constrained

The shortage of automotive chips has intensified. Especially since mid-August, the global automotive industry has been under pressure to suspend and reduce production due to the impact of Malaysia's chip packaging and testing capacity.

Kang Songlin believes that the "chip shortage" is expected to begin to ease in the fourth quarter of this year, but "structural" demand issues will affect the automotive industry in 2022.

According to the delivery information released by NIO, NIO delivered 5,880 smart electric vehicles in August. A relevant person in charge of NIO told a reporter from China Securities Journal that the epidemic has severely restricted the supply of some parts of NIO, and the production end has been restricted, which has affected the delivery volume of that month. At present, there is still great uncertainty in chip supply. The supply chain team is communicating with Bosch and STMicroelectronics to solve the chip supply problem, and at the same time continues to seek chip resources and make strategic stocking.

According to NIO's calculations, the epidemic affected NIO's production by about 2,000 to 3,000 vehicles in August. NIO lowered its third-quarter delivery forecast from 23,000 to 25,000 vehicles to 22,500 to 23,500 vehicles.

According to AutoForecastSolutions, as of August 9, the global automobile production reduction due to chip shortages has reached 5.85 million units. It is estimated that the global automobile production reduction in 2021 may exceed 7 million units.

From the sales perspective, Zhang Feng (pseudonym), sales manager of a GAC ​​Trumpchi 4S store, recently told a reporter from China Securities Journal, "The entire industry is short of chips and inventory is insufficient. It will take at least one and a half months to pick up a new car order." It is expected that there will not be too many discounts in the "Golden September and Silver October" in the auto market, and some cars will be 20,000 to 30,000 yuan more expensive than last year.

Implement chain strengthening and chain supplementation actions

Affected by factors such as the shortage of automotive chips, production and sales in the automobile market have declined for three consecutive months.

Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told a reporter from China Securities Journal that the chip shortage may cause a reduction of 500,000 to 700,000 vehicles in the domestic automobile market in August. It is highly likely that automobile sales in the third and fourth quarters will decline year-on-year, but the cumulative sales for the whole year will be higher than last year. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers previously predicted that the total automobile sales in 2021 will be around 27 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%.

CITIC Securities' automotive industry analysts predict that the industry will still face certain production pressure in mid-to-early September, but the industry's production is expected to return to a relatively ideal level from mid-to-late September. Passenger car sales are expected to decline by about 7% month-on-month in the third quarter, but this will be the worst performance of the year, and will improve month by month from the fourth quarter. The current terminal demand is strong, and inventory remains low. We are optimistic about the industry opportunities brought about by the release of terminal demand.

Regarding how to solve the chip shortage problem, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, recently said that we should make up for the shortcomings of the industry, improve the level of the entire industrial chain, and implement chain strengthening and chain supplementing actions. We should accelerate the research and development and industrialization of automotive chips and operating systems, guide enterprises to optimize the layout of the supply chain, and improve the stability, security and competitiveness of the industrial chain.