Seven highlights outline the blueprint for the development of new energy vehicles

The achievement of "China ranks first in the world in terms of production and sales scale of new energy vehicles " is closely related to new energy subsidies. With the comprehensive decline of new energy subsidies at the end of 2020, the future of the new energy vehicle industry has become a topic of widespread concern in the industry.

Without subsidies, will new energy vehicles completely lose their competitiveness? Will the scale of production and sales decline sharply? This may be the biggest doubt in the minds of all practitioners in the new energy vehicle industry. Against this background, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently officially released the draft "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" for comments (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), giving the industry a "reassurance". What will be the future path of new energy, how big will the market be, and what will be the policy orientation? We interpret them one by one through the plan. 　　

The final word: unwavering development of new energy vehicles

The reason why the "Plan" is a reassurance is because of the following three points: First, the department that drafted the document is the national competent department of the new energy vehicle industry and represents the national will; second, the name of the plan has determined that it belongs to the category of top-level industrial design. Although it has no mandatory effect, it has a programmatic role; third, the content of the "Plan" puts forward clear goals and ideas for the future direction of the industry, and it is relatively positive.

The "Plan" is a programmatic document, and one of the most worthy points to explore is: Will new energy vehicles be the main strategy for becoming a strong automobile country in the next fifteen years?

In fact, the idea of ​​"pure electric drive strategic orientation" was clearly put forward in the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)" released in 2012. During the subsidy implementation period, almost no car companies would question the implementation of this strategic orientation. Therefore, during the period of 2012-2018, almost all domestic car companies regarded the development of new energy vehicles as a key task, and a large amount of funds, manpower and resources were poured into it.

『 Sales volume of new energy vehicles in various countries in 2018 』

But at this point, almost all domestic automakers are beginning to panic. Will they do it after 2021? What direction will the country's banner point to? Will the tone of the argument change? These are the most important issues for automakers at the strategic level.

The "Plan" has made it clear: we will unwaveringly develop new energy vehicles, unwaveringly use new energy vehicles as the main strategic tool for building a strong automobile country, and unwaveringly promote our country to the center of the global automobile industry through new energy vehicles.

The unquestionable tone also sends a clear signal to all sectors of the industry: all future supporting policies will be guided by the "Plan" and will continue to be designed around the strategy of building a strong new energy vehicle country.

The supporting policies we are talking about cover various aspects such as double points, taxation, road rights, R&D projects, infrastructure, etc. We are determined to never give up until the goal is achieved and firmly establish the new energy vehicle industry as the world leader.

Therefore, all car companies should no longer worry about pessimistic scenarios such as "sudden change of wind direction, drastic tightening, and collapse". The tone has been set and the general trend is irreversible. All car companies must also focus on this main strategy and continue to focus on new energy vehicles. There is no way back, and they must move forward.

Going out and bringing in, the global automobile industry center relies on the "unequal" production and sales

Currently, new energy vehicles have many problems such as driving range, cost, charging infrastructure, and safety, but compared with various top-level strategic issues such as national energy strategic security, huge profit transfer in the automobile industry, and environmental protection, they are not on the same level.

Therefore, after comprehensively considering the current problems and industrial progress, the decision-makers made the important decision to build a global automotive industry center through new energy vehicles, and the macro-management ideas focused on "going out" and "bringing in".

First, we should bring in foreign companies. Whether it is the opening of equity ratio or investment management regulations, foreign-invested enterprises will not be treated differently in the field of new energy vehicles in the next 15 years. This opening-up will be unprecedented and continuous, and it will also give foreign investors an extra "reassurance". There is only one intention for this: to gather as many new energy vehicle companies as possible in the domestic market, to form the largest scale effect, and thus firmly grasp the first position with the advantages of a strong industrial chain.

The second is going global. Going global is a symbolic element for China to truly become a new energy vehicle power, so the decision-makers will highly encourage going global in the next 15 years. Specifically, differentiated support routes will be implemented for complete vehicles and parts, with complete vehicles focusing on developing countries and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative; while excellent parts companies will vigorously advance into traditional automobile powers including Europe, the United States and Japan. The biggest means of support from the decision-makers will be to gradually open up the control of capital outflows and give a broader green light to foreign investment in new energy vehicles, including allowing the use of international financing platforms for flexible handling.

The final result of the two-pronged approach of "bringing in" and "going out" may be "unequal production and sales". In other words, it will become a normal situation for domestic new energy vehicle production to exceed sales, and the excess production will be exported to the global market. The decisive factors lie in the free trade zone policies, whether the products have cost advantages, and whether the standards and regulations are mutually interoperable and recognized.

Emphasis on systematic construction is conducive to the formation of several advanced smart cities

In terms of specific descriptions, this "Plan" places more emphasis on systematic construction than other programmatic policies. It not only emphasizes the systematization of R&D, production, sales, and operations in new energy vehicles, but also focuses on the systematization of intelligent connected vehicles in many places throughout the text.

But no matter what, the above action plans are all aimed at optimizing the environment. As the main body of the carrier, it is impossible for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to "start all at once" and promote the application of intelligent connected vehicles in cities across the country at the same time. Therefore, on the basis of optimizing the environment, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is likely to do one thing next: select key excellent cities and conduct pilot projects to carry out smart city construction with intelligent connected vehicles as the core, which will specifically cover most areas such as 5G communications, road equipment, cloud data centers, city command platforms, car companies and product launch operations. From the perspective of enterprises, shared travel service providers led by OEMs such as Cao Cao Travel and T3 Travel will have priority development opportunities.

The hybrid technology route was kicked out

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) have been completely relegated to the sidelines. This is an extremely clear signal released by the "Plan" and will greatly influence the choice of technological route for automakers.

Although my country determined the "three vertical and three horizontal" research and development layout of new energy vehicles as early as the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, and identified pure electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles as the three key products, in subsequent policies, except for a very short period of time when pure hybrid vehicles were given subsidies in the bus market, they have basically been treated coldly across the board.

"Thirteenth Five-Year Plan New Energy Vehicle R&D Layout" 

In the 13th Five-Year Plan for the development of new energy vehicles, the inclusion of hybrid power systems into the three core system integration technology sequences has given some parts of the industry a glimmer of hope, hoping that they can have a real fight in the HEV field after the subsidies are completely cancelled.

However, in this "Plan", HEV is directly and clearly kicked out, which is equivalent to giving those who are eager to try it out. This means that when car companies are planning their technical routes, most of them will completely ignore general hybrid technology.