The myth of autonomous driving: Is the much-praised OTA really a panacea?

Leifeng.com, let me start by borrowing a line from a classic movie: "Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're going to get next." Here, it doesn't feel out of place to replace life with OTA. Admittedly, this technology has its own advantages, and there is even a trend in the industry to mention OTA, but we also need to recognize the disadvantages of this technology, after all, it is going to change a very complex and critical system.

Recently, OTA seems to have become a dragon-slaying technique, and self-driving cars will not be able to do without it in the future. Leifeng.com believes that cars are not smartphones, and system bricking or crashes will not only bring you trouble, but also involve your life safety.

We are entering an era of high mobility and high plasticity, so even complex systems need to be upgraded quickly and with less friction. However, speed is there, but what about risk? Does it increase with speed?

For consumers, the most attractive thing about OTA is that they can get the latest features remotely at the most appropriate time and place. Car owners no longer have to take a long time to drive their cars to 4S stores, wait for a long time, and watch technicians connect their cars with a laptop computer via USB cable and then clumsily install the upgrade package manually.

The new form of OTA is tantamount to a disaster for 4S stores, because it will cut the last bond between 4S stores and consumers.

For many 4S stores, the repair and maintenance of sold vehicles is not only an important source of profit, but also an important opportunity to win over consumers with their service attitude and establish a strong bond. Only in this way can consumers choose to continue to consume in the same 4S store when they change cars later.

From this perspective, OTA has indeed cut off the 4S stores' retreat, and they no longer have the opportunity to attract consumers to make impulse purchases during repairs and maintenance.

Data released by NHTSA shows that 60% of automobile recalls in the United States are not completed, which means that many cars on the road now have many defects and may become landmines at any time. Once a problem occurs, it will not only cause disaster to the owner, but also may affect others.

It is conceivable that with OTA, even if there is a problem with the hardware, car owners may not bother to drive to the 4S store because they think OTA can save everything.

4S stores are also annoyed by OTA, because many car owners, while enjoying OTA, will call to ask what the upgrade content is. Since most car owners are not insiders, it takes a lot of communication costs to explain to them. In the long run, car owners have no desire to communicate with 4S, and this link will naturally collapse and disintegrate.

The collapse of the 4S model actually has little to do with consumers. What is most disturbing is actually the content of the OTA upgrade.

The arrival of OTA will significantly increase the expectations of car owners. They will always be waiting to get the latest features with one click, so the pressure of weekly/monthly upgrades will be on engineers.

Last May, Tesla and Consumer Reports (CR) had a very interesting exchange of ideas. At that time, CR said that the Model 3's braking performance was worse than that of the Ford F-150. Musk responded quickly, saying that Tesla would be able to solve the problem soon. Sure enough, a few days later, Tesla pushed a push to solve the Model 3's "unable to brake" problem.

Quickly fixing the brakes via OTA seems like a blessing, but if you think about it, why didn't Tesla solve this most basic safety problem when it left the factory? Is selling semi-finished products to car owners and then slowly updating them the reason they use OTA? This is probably not a blessing but a curse, right?

Next, let’s talk about what kind of “chocolate” is in the OTA box:

1. Have the fast-acting OTA upgrades been rigorously tested before being pushed? Or are the engineers just going through the motions under tremendous pressure?

Ironically, the old-school solution that is now ridiculed seems to be more logical, more controllable and safer, and manufacturers can also control the impact of upgrades more accurately.

2. Can car owners understand what changes OTA brings to the vehicle and adjust their driving style based on these changes?

If your car does not reach Level 5 fully autonomous driving, the driver must still be responsible for his or her own safety. Once the system changes drastically, the driver may not be used to it and will be in a panic in an emergency, leading to an accident. In addition, the vehicle's reaction may also scare passengers and affect the experience.

3. Are the issues fixed via OTA a secret that manufacturers cannot reveal? What about consumers’ right to know?

Suppose the manufacturer discovers a major problem with a vehicle that can be fixed with software. Perhaps before this, a car owner may have been involved in an accident because of the problem. Can the manufacturer cover up its mistakes and evade responsibility through OTA?

4. Will manufacturers address some hardware issues through OTA software upgrades?

Suppose a self-driving car you're riding in has a defective or critical component that's very expensive to replace, and the manufacturer claims they "fixed" the problem (e.g., the alarm no longer sounds) via OTA. Did they cover up the problem with software, or is this "Band-Aid" only palliative?

5. Will OTA solve one problem but create more problems?

It is entirely possible that this could cause friction with other components or some unexpected results.

If OTA successfully takes over your car's central control system, any software failure will become insignificant. However, when it changes the core driving capabilities of the vehicle, the consequences may be serious.

In Leifeng.com's view, on the one hand, OTA provides a low-cost and easy way to update vehicles. With just a "snap of the fingers", thousands of cars can be instantly transformed. On the other hand, it can easily implant defects into thousands of "time bombs", which can lead to eternal damnation if not paid attention to, not to mention the terrible scene of being targeted by bad guys.

So, there may really be some rotten or even poisonous chocolates in this OTA box.