Is it worth switching to semiconductor now?
I graduated from a 985 university in Northeast China, majoring in metallurgical engineering. I joined a steel mill after graduation in 2023. I worked shifts, but the efficiency was not good and my salary was getting lower and lower. Now I want to switch to the semiconductor industry. Is it worth going?
Some netizens replied:
The office of the design house exudes an unusual atmosphere. Several buildings you are familiar with near Zhangjiang Road have experienced several waves of farewell ceremonies. On the day of the farewell party, the wall paint of one building fell off . But we have to wait and see. Now the hc (HC in recruitment refers to headcount, that is, the number of employees expected to be recruited) is obviously less. Several verification brothers I know have greasy hair and run around the Jinke Road subway station every day. What has changed is their hairstyle, but the food at the nearby Xibei is still unpalatable. But they know and are grateful that they can still get their salary this month, which is the money saved by delaying the layoff of their leader .
Of course, the most shocking thing is the army of biochemical and environmental materials Verilog and VHDL created by the training courses during the bubble period a few years ago . There is a brother in the group who is even more amazing and joined the digital team after graduating from junior college. Of course, the most amazing thing is the fab guy who made a surprise attack on MOS structure on Youku and entered the SRAM market. I have great respect for them, but their eyes were a little empty at the farewell party.
Fab is even more ridiculous. You magically discovered that the treatment in every company you just joined is pretty good. After a period of brutal output, you will find that the income is getting less and less every year. Overtime pay is continuously cut, and benefits are taken away one after another. Starting from the third year, they even stopped pretending and started to work for free . Unlike design house, fab cows and horses are indignant in their own small groups, and their desire to survive is extremely strong. Some groups even have HR undercovers . The leaders know that it is meaningless to draw cakes, so they all give up the performance. Three years later, the company has more managers than cows and horses. Fresh graduates with three years of experience become team leaders to cooperate with the performance. While eating cakes, they lead the team to participate in the company's swearing-in ceremony. The company's turnover rate can be called a vegetable market, but as long as you are Buddhist enough and insist on pretending to work hard every day, you can still live a fairly peaceful life. Although many people want to force you to work hard, as long as you are not a fool, you will take the initiative to keep the intranet communication tools offline .
In fact, in Shi Xiaosheng's eyes: men are afraid of choosing the wrong career, and women are afraid of marrying the wrong man, and semiconductors are an above-average choice.
Let’s talk about the semiconductor cycle. In case you joined the National Army in 1994, at least there is no problem with the direction.
Like other industries, the semiconductor industry also has cyclical laws. Any industry that has a long reaction time in the process of chain transmission will show cyclical changes. The cyclical changes of the entire industrial chain form the cycle of the chip semiconductor industry, which is about a cycle every 3-3.5 years. Although the cyclicality is different from industries such as coal and pork, since 1975, the output value of semiconductors has increased from US$5 billion to nearly US$500 billion, a growth of nearly 100 times. Therefore, in the iteration of versions from generation to generation, although there are cyclical changes, the overall trend is upward.
Since 1978, the global semiconductor industry has experienced 11 cycles, and the cycle that began in 2019 is the 12th cycle. In the past semiconductor cycles, an average cycle lasted 42.6 months, with the rising period and the falling period lasting 21.8 months and 20.8 months respectively, basically half of the rising period and half of the falling period .
The semiconductor industry has attracted much attention in this cycle that started in mid-2019. The reason why this cycle has attracted so much attention is that it is relatively stronger than in recent decades. The strength of this cycle is due to the explosion of demand in the upward cycle, as well as the technological disputes between countries, the increase in international logistics and transportation costs due to the epidemic, and the substantial monetary easing by countries around the world in 2020. These four factors have led to an unprecedented increase in the price of chip semiconductors.
Starting from January 2022, the semiconductor industry began to experience varying degrees of year-on-year and month-on-month declines. When the performance turning point began to appear, it was basically confirmed that the semiconductor industry cycle entered a downward phase. Therefore, we can boldly infer that a new round of upward cycle will come in 2024.
A reporter from Electronics News asked: After experiencing the downward cycle in 2023, many market research institutions and semiconductor manufacturers regard 2024 as a "transition year" or "adjustment year" for a turnaround. How do you view the trend of the semiconductor market in 2024?
Jing Cui, Chairman and Party Secretary of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation:
Judging from the situation of China's semiconductor industry in 2023, wafer manufacturing and packaging and testing businesses have slowed down, but semiconductor equipment has maintained rapid growth. This basically verifies the industry's counter-cyclical expansion law that "entering a downward cycle means expanding production", so wafer fabs are actively expanding production for the next upward cycle. In fact, this is exactly the case in the domestic market. Capacity expansion is progressing in an orderly manner, and demand for local equipment continues to increase. Therefore, China's semiconductor industry should be able to recover steadily in 2024 .
Xie Zhonghui, Chief Marketing and Strategy Officer of Sinochip Technology Co., Ltd.:
2024 can indeed be regarded as a critical "transition year" for the semiconductor industry.
First, from the perspective of global economic recovery, with the implementation of economic stimulus policies in various countries and the continuous maturity of emerging technologies such as 5G, Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence, demand in the semiconductor industry is expected to gradually pick up.
Secondly, supply chain optimization and capacity adjustment will also play an important role in 2024. After the rapid expansion in the past few years and the subsequent destocking, many semiconductor manufacturers pay more attention to the stability and efficiency of the supply chain, which will help ease the contradiction between supply and demand and provide the market with more stable and high-quality products.
Thirdly, technological innovation remains the core driving force for the development of the industry. For example, in the field of EDA, we are committed to developing more intelligent and automated design tools to help customers shorten product development cycles and improve design efficiency. We believe that through continuous technological innovation, the semiconductor industry will be able to overcome market fluctuations and achieve sustainable development.
Finally, the policy environment will also have an impact on the market trend in 2024. The support policies of various governments for the semiconductor industry and investment in key technologies will inject new vitality into the industry.
In general, there are many positive signs of recovery in the market.
Although the semiconductor market in 2024 still faces many uncertainties, we still have reason to be optimistic
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Hu Weihao, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Beijing Eswin Computing Technology Co., Ltd.:
The semiconductor industry is a relatively typical cyclical industry. After nearly two years of downward cycles, it is currently in a recovery phase. We have seen that the pressure on semiconductor inventory has been released, inventory has gradually returned to normal levels, and market demand has improved moderately. At the same time, AIGC represented by ChatGPT has been widely used in various industries around the world. AI's demand for basic hardware, especially high-computing chips and high-bandwidth memory, continues to grow rapidly; the automotive industry's "new three trends (electrification, intelligence, and networking)", especially the rapid growth in production and sales of new energy vehicles, will also drive a substantial increase in demand for automotive semiconductors. Based on the above momentum, the semiconductor industry is expected to recover in 2024 and gradually enter a new round of growth cycle .
After the direction is clear, what specific chain should be chosen?
Semiconductors are divided into four categories: integrated circuits, discrete devices, optoelectronic devices, and sensors.
According to the chain division, there are IC design, IC manufacturing, IC packaging and testing, etc.
I believe you can find out which chain to enter from the picture below.
That’s all. Thank you.
Note: The cover image is from the Douban movie "Inception" stills
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