The White Paper on the Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry (2015 Edition) was released

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Integrated circuits are the core of the information technology industry. They are strategic, basic and leading industries that support economic and social development and safeguard national security. In 2014, the development of the global integrated circuit industry ended the unstable situation of high growth and cyclical fluctuations in the past and began to enter a stable development stage. The pace of industrial structure adjustment accelerated, and the IC design industry and foundry industry showed a sudden rise. In recent years, the global status of China's electronic information industry has rapidly improved, and the industrial chain has become increasingly mature, providing good opportunities for the development of my country's integrated circuit industry. The promulgation and implementation of the "National Integrated Circuit Industry Promotion Outline" has clarified the main tasks of my country's integrated circuit industry development and through the establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Development Leading Group and the establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, my country's integrated circuit industry has bid farewell to the previous model of special independent operations, and strengthened the top-level design of the industry, improved the policy system, and coordinated the development of the entire industry, pointing out the way for the development of my country's integrated circuit industry.

1. Development of the global integrated circuit industry in 2014

According to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), the global semiconductor market size reached US$333.1 billion in 2014, a year-on-year increase of 9%, the fastest growth rate in the past four years. With the increasing concentration of the industry, the industry development has gradually ended the past high growth and cyclical fluctuations and entered a stable development stage.

Figure 1: Global IC market size and growth rate, 2008-2014

Data source: WSTS, December 2014

From the perspective of the industrial chain structure, the manufacturing industry, IC design industry, and packaging and testing industry account for 50%, 27%, and 23% of the global semiconductor industry's overall operating income, respectively. From the perspective of product structure, the sales of analog chips, processor chips, logic chips, and memory chips in 2014 were US$44.21 billion, US$62.21 billion, US$85.93 billion, and US$78.61 billion, respectively, accounting for 16.1%, 22.6%, 32.6%, and 28.6% of the global integrated circuit market share, respectively.

II. Development of my country's integrated circuit industry in 2014

According to statistics from the China Semiconductor Industry Association, the sales revenue of my country's integrated circuit industry reached 301.54 billion yuan in 2014, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, 4 percentage points higher than in 2013. The scale of the industry continued to grow rapidly, with the growth rate in each quarter showing a trend of slowing down at the beginning and then increasing.

Figure 2 Sales scale and growth of my country's integrated circuit industry from 2011 to 2014

Data source: China Semiconductor Industry Association (CSIA), 2014.2

From the perspective of the industrial chain structure. In 2014, all links of the integrated circuit industry chain showed a growth trend. Among them, the design industry grew the fastest, with sales of 104.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%; the chip manufacturing industry sales revenue was 71.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%; the packaging and testing industry sales were 125.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The rapid development of the IC design industry has led to a general shortage of domestic chip foundry and packaging and testing capacity. From the perspective of the market structure. Communications and consumer electronics are the most important application markets for integrated circuits in my country, and the two together account for 48.9% of the overall market. Among them, the network communication field is still the main driving force for the growth of China's integrated circuit market in 2014. The decline in global computer production and sales directly led to a slowdown in the growth of China's computer field integrated circuit market. In 2014, the market share of computer integrated circuits further declined, a year-on-year decline of 13.28%.

III. Three major advances in important innovations

First, the 14nm FinFET process chip officially entered the market. The 14nm process node is generally regarded by the industry as a technological turning point in integrated circuit manufacturing. In the technical process of realizing the 14nm process, there are currently two main technical routes. One is the FinFET structure tri-gate transistor technology that Intel has begun to adopt in the 22nm process. The other is the FD-SOI fully depleted technology adopted by companies such as IBM and STMicroelectronics in the 22nm process node.

Second, 3D-NAND storage technology is commercializing. In October 2014, Samsung announced the start of mass production of 3-bit MLC 3D V-NAND flash memory for solid-state drives (SSDs). The advantage of 3D V-NAND technology is that it can not only improve the storage density and write speed of chips, but also reduce chip power consumption. As of December 2014, four memory manufacturers in the world have launched their own 3D-NAND development roadmaps. Overall, this technology is expected to enter the market in 2016 and replace traditional NAND flash memory.

Third, the wearable market is driving wireless charging technology toward maturity. Mobile smart terminal users are increasingly demanding battery life, prompting chip design companies to start developing new power supply technologies, among which wireless charging technology has become the focus of the industry. By the end of 2014, many chip manufacturers including Broadcom, IDT, Texas Instruments (TI), MediaTek, and ON Semiconductor have actively launched wireless charging solutions targeting the wearable device market, and have made corresponding changes to the development strategy of the surrounding power management platform.

IV. Three issues that deserve attention

First, the "arms race" among international chip giants is becoming increasingly fierce, and my country's chip manufacturing industry is facing increasing international pressure; second, the lack of core intellectual property rights means that 4G equipment will still face patent risks in the process of accelerated replacement; third, the implementation of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund will face challenges in several aspects, such as the selection of investment entities and the identification of overseas M&A targets.

V. Prospects for the development of the integrated circuit industry in 2015

First, the scale of the industry continues to increase, and the market leads the global growth. In 2015, driven by the continued growth of the global semiconductor market and the continued strong domestic demand in China, as well as the implementation of the national information security strategy and the continuous improvement of industrial support policies, the domestic integrated circuit industry will continue to maintain a relatively fast growth rate, laying a solid foundation for my country's integrated circuit industry to meet the development of the "13th Five-Year Plan".

Second, the three sub-sectors are advancing in parallel, and the industrial structure is becoming more reasonable. With the gradual completion of the integration of Spreadtrum and RDA business by Tsinghua Unigroup, it will become the world's third largest mobile phone chip supplier, and the strength of my country's IC design industry will be further enhanced. With the completion, commissioning and expansion of several 12-inch chip production lines such as SMIC Shenzhen, Shanghai Huali Microelectronics and SMIC Beijing, the scale of the domestic chip manufacturing industry will continue to expand rapidly in 2015. In the field of packaging and testing, the industry will also show a trend of stable growth driven by the continued expansion of production capacity by domestic enterprises and the acceleration of domestic capital's mergers and acquisitions of foreign capital.

Third, the technological level continues to improve, and the international gap is gradually narrowing. In the next few years, my country's integrated circuit technology will continue to advance along the three directions of Moore's Law, beyond Moore's Law, and the use of new materials and new devices. In addition to providing integrated circuit products, design companies also provide customers with complete application solutions. The baseband chips and application processors of mobile smart terminals remain at the forefront of the world. The process feature size of the chip manufacturing industry has been promoted to 20nm industrialization, and the new 16/14nm process has achieved a major breakthrough. The packaging and testing industry has promoted the large-scale promotion of 3D/2.5D packaging based on TSV technology, and the gap between my country and the world's leading level has been further narrowed.

Fourth, the strength of domestic enterprises has doubled, and is expected to reshuffle the global landscape. The strength of Chinese IC enterprises continues to grow. HiSilicon has been the largest fabless manufacturer in China since 2012, and is expected to rank among the top 10 fabless manufacturers in the world in 2015. In addition, Tsinghua Unigroup has become a giant in the domestic IC industry after acquiring Spreadtrum and RDA and obtaining a stake from Intel; at the end of 2014, Changdian Technology acquired Singapore's STATS ChipPAC, the world's fourth largest semiconductor packaging and testing company, and is expected to enter the top five in the global packaging industry. Overall, driven by the growth of the domestic complete machine market, the strength of Chinese IC enterprises will continue to improve in 2015, and they will begin to enter the first echelon of the world, and the global industry competition landscape is expected to be reshuffled.

Fifth, the policy environment is getting better and better, and funds are leading the investment boom. With the gradual implementation of the details of the "National Integrated Circuit Industry Development Promotion Outline" and the launch of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund project, domestic leading companies have successively launched acquisitions and reorganizations, driving the integration of the entire integrated circuit industry. At the same time, it has also driven the investment boom in the integrated circuit market. At present, the total scale of the first phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund is expected to reach 138.72 billion yuan, with an oversubscription of 18.72 billion yuan. It is expected that the next five years from 2015 will become a period of intensive investment by the fund, while leveraging trillions of social funds to enter the integrated circuit field, thereby driving the active flow of industry capital.

Source: China Electronics News, Electronic Information Industry Network

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