Can Intel, which has undergone a comprehensive transformation, recreate its glory days?

source: This article is translated from Market Realist by Semiconductor Industry Observer ,Thanks.

Recently, Intel announced that it would acquire Mobileye, the world's largest supplier of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), for more than $15 billion. The industry seems to be full of confidence in Intel's layout in autonomous driving. Since its establishment in 1968, Intel has created brilliance in several fields such as DRAM, PC processors and server chips. Intel has almost always seized every industrial transformation and used its strong manufacturing and design capabilities to become a leader. However, there is one exception, and that is the era of smartphones pioneered by Apple.

Due to its slow response and miscalculation in the mobile market, Intel missed the golden decade of the mobile market, which led to the glory of a number of manufacturers such as ARM and Qualcomm. But in the past two years, Intel has made a comeback. After cutting off its mobile product line, Intel has focused on the Internet of Things, 5G, artificial intelligence, and automotive electronics, and strived to seize the next wave of blue ocean markets through a large number of acquisitions and internal research and development. Can Intel get what it wants this time?

Intel and its major business transformations

After achieving record revenues in fiscal 2016, Intel (INTC) stock price rose to a 52-week high of $38.45 on January 27, 2017. Then it began to slide. Strong earnings cannot maintain a high stock price because the price is mainly based on future growth opportunities, not past growth.

Intel is going through a major transformation from a chip-centric company to a data-centric company. It invests in things that generate data or require computing data. So 2017 may not be Intel's year.

Potential market scope for Intel expansion in 2021

Intel's transformation began in 2016 when it reorganized its organization, made business changes to top management, and laid off 12,000 people. The transformation will go further in 2017 with the launch of its 10nm (nanometer) products, Optane products, AI (artificial intelligence) products, advanced mobile modems, and IoT products.

Judging from its current actions, Intel is expanding its TAM (potential market area) from US$45 billion centered on PCs (personal computers) and server CPUs (central processing units) to PCs, data centers, NVM (non-volatile memory), mobile devices and the Internet of Things, totaling US$220 billion.

The transformation puts Intel in direct competition with Nvidia (NVDA), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Broadcom (AVGO) in the data center, mobile and networking markets, respectively.

Analysts and investors believe that growth in IoT, memory and PSG (Programmable Solutions Group) still only account for 11.6% of its revenue. Even in the data center segment, which only accounts for 29% of its revenue and 58% of its operating income, high-margin enterprise products are declining, and low-margin cloud and network products are growing rapidly.

These growth segments require huge investments that hurt the company's profits. Over the next three years, Intel expects its gross margins to decline slightly, its revenues to increase in the low single digits, and its EPS (earnings per share) to grow faster than its operating income.

In 2017, Intel's competitors AMD and Nvidia will both launch new generations of products and have strong growth opportunities. Nvidia can benefit from Tesla's (TSLA) car installation of an autonomous driving platform. AMD can benefit from its Ryzen CPU, which, after years of silence, expects to gain some market share from Intel in the PC and server markets.

From this perspective, fiscal 2018 looks relatively better for Intel as its product transformation begins to bear fruit. We will explore the short-term and long-term growth opportunities and risks facing Intel.

In what areas does Intel conduct research and development?

Intel (INTC) is in the midst of a major transformation, where it is taking existing technologies and taking risks in new technologies. Such a large-scale transformation requires huge investments and has made Intel the world's top semiconductor R&D investor.

According to a January 2017 McClean Report, Intel spent $12.7 billion on R&D in 2016. This accounted for 23% of the total global semiconductor R&D spending of $56.5 billion in 2016. The company's R&D expenses as a percentage of its revenue increased from 14.5% in 2005 to 16.4% in 2010 and then to 22.4% in 2016.

Intel's R&D expenditures from 2015 to 2017

So where is Intel's R&D focus?

As stated at the outset, Intel has shifted its R&D focus from PCs (personal computers) to mobile modems, AI (artificial intelligence), 5G networks, self-driving cars, non-volatile memory, and the Internet of Things (IoT).

Intel has nearly doubled down on its R&D efforts in the IoT space. It is working with BMW, Mobileye (now acquired), and HERE to develop an autonomous car platform. It is developing drones, MR (merged reality) headsets, and Atom processors for IoT devices. Intel has also expanded its 10nm node and is developing a 7nm node.

Intel increased its R&D spending in the mobile, memory and data center sectors by double digits. It is working with Nokia, AT&T (T), Ericsson (ERIC) and other telecom operators to develop 5G technology and its standardization. It hopes to integrate Nervana Systems' AI technology into its server processors. It is also developing Xpoint-based 3D Optane products.

But we also need to see that although Intel's R&D expenses continue to grow, the rate is slowing down.

Because all of these projects are capital intensive. Despite cost savings from restructuring, Intel's operating expenses increased in 2016. They are likely to continue to increase in 2017. However, its R&D expense growth rate has slowed from 9.0% in 2011 to 5.0% in 2016. The slowdown is due to lower global semiconductor sales (QQQ), which fell 1% in 2015 and then rose to low single-digit levels in 2016.

In addition to R&D spending, Intel also increased capital expenditures by $2.4 billion to $12 billion in 2017. R&D spending covers the cost of developing new products or processes, while capital expenditures include the cost of manufacturing products through capacity expansions or factory modernizations.

Next, let's look at the capital expenditures Intel is targeting.

In the previous part of this series, we saw that Intel (INTC) is shifting its R&D spending toward growth areas. At the same time, capital expenditures increased to $12 billion in 2017, indicating that its R&D activities are shifting to product launches.

At Intel's 2017 Investor Day, Intel said it would spend $2.5 billion on memory and increase its capital expenditures on capacity expansion. Intel has converted its fab in Dalian, China to produce 3D NAND. It is now looking to accelerate the production of its 3D XPoint products co-developed with Micron Technology (MU).

In terms of capacity expansion, Intel can use its capital to expand production of its 10nm node. Intel also announced plans to invest $7 billion in a new factory in Arizona.

Intel's capital expenditure trends from 2013 to 2017

New fab supports Intel's manufacturing layout

The new plant is expected to be completed in the next four years and is expected to use a 7nm process to manufacture microprocessors for data centers and Internet of Things (IoT) devices. The fab will bring about 3,000 direct high-skilled, high-wage jobs and 10,000 indirect jobs.

This brings us to the question of why a company cut 12,000 jobs in 2016 and invested $7 billion in new fabs at a time when other semiconductor companies were closing their fabs.

So why is Intel investing in a new fab? Intel CEO Brian Krzanich said the Trump administration's "tax and regulatory policies" encourage domestic manufacturing. He said he supports the administration's "policies to level the playing field around the world" and efforts to create jobs in the United States.

Over the years, the United States' global semiconductor manufacturing capacity has fallen from 30.0% in 1990 to 13.0% in 2015. The decline is due to high U.S. tax rates and huge subsidies from overseas countries such as China. Stacy Smith, Intel's head of manufacturing, operations and sales, said that it can cost about $2 billion more to build a wafer fab in the United States than in China.

As for how Intel will benefit from the new fab? Some analysts believe Intel's new fab is driven by its own growth goals, rather than by Donald Trump. The company is moving toward 7nm nodes, data center technologies for artificial intelligence and self-driving cars.

These technologies are complex, dynamic, and require close monitoring of manufacturing. By keeping production in the United States, Intel can better control its production. Intel hopes to keep the majority of its chip manufacturing in the United States.

Intel (INTC) spends a lot of its capital expenditures on capacity expansion. As each node becomes more advanced, its complexity increases, and the cost of research and development also increases. These complex nodes require more equipment, which increases capital expenditures.

Due to the process advancement difficulties, Intel expanded its technology roadmap from two processors per node to three processors per node. This was done to increase equipment life, reduce depreciation, and get a better return on capital. The new roadmap was effective for the launch of the third 14nm processor, Skylake. However, it faces competition from AMD's new Ryzen CPUs manufactured on Samsung's 14nm process. AMD claims that Ryzen offers performance similar to Skylake.

Intel's 14nm product strategy

It seems that Intel will usher in its fourth 14nm processor

There have been rumors that Intel may be developing a fourth processor on its 14nm node, codenamed Coffee Lake, due to delays in ramping up the 10nm node. This rumor was rekindled at Intel's 2017 Investor Day, where Intel showed a slide detailing its 14nm product roadmap for 6th, 7th, and 8th generation processors, each offering a 15.0% performance increase.

Intel has already launched three processors on the 14nm node - Broadwell, Skylake and Kaby Lake, which are the 5th, 6th and 7th generation processors respectively. The 8th generation Coffee Lake processor will be launched in the second half of 2017. It will be the fourth processor on the 14nm node.

Even at 14nm, Intel has slightly improved the process by tweaking the design. Some unnamed sources claim that Intel calls Skylake 14nm, Kaby Lake 14nm+, and Coffee Lake 14nm++. The source states that Coffee Lake processors are built on FinFET (Fin Field Effect Transistor) technology, which has 3D transistors and houses the latest GPU (Graphics Processing Unit). Simply by adding an improved GPU, the performance of the CPU can be significantly improved.

Coffee Lake is a surprise, as Intel will have completed production of its 10nm process by the end of 2017. If Intel launches its first 10nm processor, Cannon Lake, in the second half of 2017 or early 2018, 14nm and 10nm chips will coexist. This raises the question of how Intel will brand its 10nm chips.

"If Cannonlake is available at the end of the year, it would be interesting to see if we market it," said Murthy Renduchintala, president of Intel's Client and Internet of Things business and System Architecture Group. "We haven't decided on that yet."

However, some analysts believe that Intel’s 10nm process may be delayed. Later, we will see whether the delay in the process node will affect Intel’s progress in the market.

10nm and beyond will cause trouble for Intel

Intel (INTC) is extending its technology roadmap as the cost and complexity of advanced nodes increase. BlueFin Research Partners analyst Steve Mullane said Intel's 10nm process could be delayed by two to three months.

Mullane said discussions at the SPIE (Society of Photographic Instrument Engineers) conference indicated that Intel is preparing to place 10nm process equipment in its Israeli factory, but it faces yield issues for mass production. This may delay the production ramp of the 10nm node.

Standard Node Trend

Intel's delay in launching advanced nodes has given competitors an opportunity to close the technology gap. Samsung (SSNLF) has already launched its 10nm process node, and TSMC (TSMC) will launch its 10nm node in the first half of 2017. Intel's 10nm node is unlikely to be launched before the end of 2017. GF (GlobalFoundries), which broke away from AMD, plans to skip 10nm and directly launch the 7nm node in 2018.

Competitor activity may indicate that Intel has lost process leadership. But advertised nodes are different from actual nodes. A research report states that IC Knowledge normalizes these nodes using ASML formulas based on node measurements of CPHP (contact poly half pitch) and MMHP (minimum metal half pitch) projections. The report shows that Intel's process nodes are closest to its advertised nodes.

Samsung's 14nm and TSMC's 16nm nodes are equivalent to Intel's 22nm node. Samsung's new 10nm node is equivalent to Intel's 14nm node. Intel's 10nm node is likely equivalent to Samsung and TSMC's 7nm node. Therefore, Intel can maintain its process leadership until Intel launches its 10nm node in 2018, and TSMC, Samsung, and GF launch their 7nm nodes.

So we think Intel may lose its process leadership after 2018.

Even after the node is standardized, Intel may lose its process leadership after 2018. According to Intel's technology expansion roadmap, it will optimize its nodes over the next four years. This means that it may not launch its 7nm node before 2021.

By that time, Samsung, TSMC, and GF will have launched their 5nm nodes, giving them a lead over Intel. It's possible that Intel's process nodes beyond 10nm may even lag behind its competitors.

By then, Samsung, TSMC, and GF will have launched their 5nm nodes, putting them ahead of Intel. Intel's process nodes within 10nm may even lag behind its competitors.

Intel's process lead helps it command a premium price. If it loses that lead, it could be forced to cut prices in order to stay competitive. We'll look at that in the next part of this series.

Intel's process lead helps it command a premium. If it loses its lead, it may be forced to cut prices to remain competitive. We'll continue to watch this.

But according to some analysts, Intel will lose its process leadership, which will have a significant impact on the processor giant.

Earlier we saw that Intel's (INTC) technology expansion roadmap could cause the company to lose its process leadership after 2018. Intel is an IDM (integrated device manufacturer), and more advanced process nodes give it a competitive advantage in the PC (personal computer) and server processor markets.

Intel's IDM model also helps it customize its processes based on processor designs rather than using standard processes from foundries. If the company loses its process leadership, it could lose market share in the PC and server markets.

The Link Between Intel's Process and Product Leadership

Early signs of competition are already evident. AMD launched its Ryzen CPU (central processing unit) based on Samsung's 14nm node, which is inferior to Intel's 14nm node. Nevertheless, Ryzen matches the performance of Intel's 14nm Broadwell-E i7 6900k processor. If AMD can achieve similar performance on the lower-level node, it may outperform Intel on the upper-level node. This will help AMD win some share in the PC processor market, where Intel has more than 80.0% market share.

Let's look at another example, Qualcomm's (QCOM) Snapdragon 835 chip, which will be based on Samsung's 10nm process. Samsung's 10nm node is similar to Intel's 14nm node. Rumor has it that the upcoming Snapdragon 835 may perform better than or similar to Intel's 10nm Canon Lake chip.

If Samsung and TSMC's process nodes are more advanced than Intel's, ARM-based server chips could potentially compete with x86 server chips in terms of performance, efficiency, and cost. This would help Qualcomm, Applied Microelectronics, and Cavium's ARM-based server chips gain share in the data center processor market, where Intel holds 99.0% of the market.

If Intel fails to offer a better chip architecture than its competitors, it could lose pricing power and be forced to cut prices. This would significantly hurt its profits. The biggest blow would come if Intel loses share in the data center market, which is Intel's most profitable segment, accounting for more than 50% of its operating profit.

If Intel fails to maintain its market leadership and pricing power, some analysts expect its profit margins and average selling prices to decline over the next five years. However, the company is seeking to maximize its profits in the short term.

Intel (INTC) could lose its process leadership after 2018 as it slows down its node progress and competitors move quickly to advanced nodes. This could reduce Intel's market share and hurt its profits.

While this is a long-term scenario, Intel is looking to maximize profits in the short term by adopting Nvidia's (NVDA) marketing strategy to sell Kaby Lake and Coffee Lake processors. Intel's plan is to launch these processors first for high-priced laptops, followed by lower-priced desktops.

CCG Mobile Product Roadmap

Nvidia first launched its high-end gaming Pascal GPUs (graphics processing units) GTX 1080 and 1070 for desktops, and then dropped to the mid-range and low-end processor GTX 1050. Nvidia increased its gaming revenue by 59.0% in the third quarter of fiscal 2017 by selling high-end GPUs. It then captured the mainstream market by launching lower-end versions and achieved a sequential increase of 8.0% in gaming revenue in the third quarter of fiscal 2017.

So far, Intel has introduced its new architectures first for PCs (personal computers) and then for servers. For example, it launched Skylake processors for desktops and laptops in mid-2016 and will now launch Skylake-based Xeon V5 server processors in the first half of 2017.

Now, Intel is reducing its spending in the PC market. The first sign will be seen when it launches its 7nm (nanometer) processors. At the 2017 Investor Day, Diane Bryant, executive vice president and general manager of Intel's Data Center Group, said the company plans to launch its 7nm processors first for data centers, because data center processors are more expensive. Later, it may launch laptop processors, which require lower prices. Bryant said Intel may not launch desktop processors.

This is the strategy Nvidia used. When Nvidia launched its Pascal architecture, it launched it first for its data center customers and then rolled it out to its gaming customers.

Recently Google (GOOG) announced that it will be the first cloud service company to use Intel's Skylake Xeon server processors. This news is surprising because Intel did not mention it in its fiscal 2016 fourth quarter earnings call or 2017 investor day, and shareholders were pessimistic about its data center business.

The unexpected news is an example of Intel's new strategy of giving details about products and having partners make announcements. This is completely opposite to AMD's marketing strategy, which releases multiple teasers and releases multiple previews at various levels. While this builds expectations among customers, it also reminds competitors of their product strategies. But Microsoft's announcement of a partnership with ARM servers also sounded the alarm for Intel.

Intel's revenue trend analysis

As we can see from the previous article, Intel (INTC) is seeking to transform from a chip-centric company to a data-centric company. Its R&D expenses and capital expenditures are increasing because its growth areas require huge investments and they are not yet sufficient to replace its PC business.

This may slow Intel's growth in the short and medium term, but it will provide strong growth opportunities in the long term.

Intel's revenue from fiscal years 2012 to 2017

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016, Intel's revenue grew to a record high of $16.4 billion, up 10.0% year-over-year. Revenue came from strong growth in its CCG (Client Computing Group), DCG (Data Center Group), IoT (Internet of Things), and Memory Group.

Intel's fiscal revenue increased 7.0% year-over-year in 2016 to a record high of $59.4 billion. About 3.0% of the growth came from the addition of Altera. In fiscal 2016, Intel's DCG and IoT revenues hit record highs. However, the company expects its revenue growth to slow in fiscal 2017-2019.

After reporting strong seasonal sales for gaming and other high-end PC systems, Intel expects its revenue to fall 9.8% in the first quarter of fiscal 2017. This will reduce its ASP (average selling price) as demand shifts to lower-end PCs. Data center sales are expected to remain weak. This may be offset by strong growth in non-volatile memory and the Internet of Things market.

Intel expects sales to remain at $59.4 billion in fiscal 2017 if we include the Intel Security Group. However, if we remove the security business from the estimates of 2016 and 2017 earnings, Intel's revenue is expected to be low in fiscal 2017.

Intel is likely to face strong competition from AMD's Ryzen desktop and server processors. However, this competition could be offset by strong growth in the mobile business, driven by Apple's (AAPL) modem demand. Intel is seeking to replace Qualcomm (QCOM) as the sole modem supplier for the iPhone by 2018. Intel could also benefit from a supply shortage of 3D NAND, which is letting it raise prices.

Over the next three years, through 2019, Intel expects its revenue to rise in the low single digits, even though its growth rate is expected to rise in the double digits. This is due to the small size of its growth segment. On the other hand, its client computing segment revenue is expected to fall to the low single digits over the next three years.

Next, let's see if Intel can maintain its high margins despite an increase in spending.

Next, let's see if Intel can maintain high profits despite increased spending.

Intel (INTC) is in the process of restructuring, planning to cut 15,000 jobs and spin off its Intel Security Group business. The company's restructuring cost $2.3 billion, but it achieved $1.6 billion in savings. Despite these savings, the company's operating expenses rose in fiscal 2016.

The benefits are expected to be seen in fiscal 2017, when Intel expects its non-GAAP earnings per share to rise 3.0% to $2.80. But those gains were below the mid-single digit of analysts' earnings growth estimates from the restructuring. That's because the company is increasing its spending on high-growth segments such as the Internet of Things, memory and data centers.

Intel's profit margin from fiscal year 2012 to 2017

Intel's non-GAAP gross margin fell from 65.0% in Q3 FY 2016 to 63.0% in Q4 FY 2016, even with strong product mix. This was due to two one-time costs the company incurred during the quarter.

The first expense is a $315 million long-term cross-licensing and patent purchase agreement, primarily related to communications technology, which does not involve any enforcement challenges but could save the company the expense of potential patent litigation.

The second expense is bigger and has to do with product quality issues. Intel CFO Bob Swan said in its fiscal 2016 fourth quarter earnings that the company faced "slightly higher than expected failure rates under certain usage and time constraints." He assured investors that it was just a design flaw. The company is working with its customers and has created a separate reserve so it won't affect its 2017 profits.

Intel's non-GAAP gross margin was almost flat at 63.2% in fiscal 2016. The company expects margins to remain around 63.0% in fiscal 2017. Even with improvements in ASP and unit costs, product mix will pose a challenge in 2017. PC unit costs will decline, but DCG costs will rise as the company transitions from 22nm to 14nm. Notably, Micron Technology (MU) costs will rise when the process switches to 14nm.

The factory ramp-up of 10nm process and memory, as well as the high costs of IoT, modems, and data centers, will offset the higher ASP in memory and DCG. As a result, Intel expects gross margin to decline slightly in the next three years.

On the operational side, however, things may be slightly better.

To control expenses, Intel has restructured, which won't reduce expenses, but has prevented them from growing significantly. Its operating expenses increased 12.8% year-over-year to $23.8 billion, mainly due to $1.8 billion in restructuring charges. Intel expects its operating expenses to fall to $20.5 billion in 2017, still $400 million more than its operating expenses in 2015, and that doesn't even include Intel's security division.

However, if we consider non-GAAP figures that exclude the impact of restructuring, Intel's operating margin improved slightly.

Non-GAAP operating margins for Intel and its competitors

As shown in the above chart, the profitability of the industry has changed in 2016. In 2015, Intel's profitability was higher than Nvidia (NVDA). However, with the emergence of deep learning, the application of Nvidia's Pascal GPU (graphics processing unit) in the data center market increased. This made Nvidia a direct competitor to Intel in the data center field.

Intel's direct competitor AMD returned to profitability in 2016. Intel's operating margin rose by less than a percentage point. Only Qualcomm (QCOM) saw a slight decline in operating margin in fiscal 2016 as some of its Apple (AAPL) modem business moved to Intel.

All three competitors are growing rapidly in high-growth markets and could pose a threat to Intel.

Intel's operating margin is expected to rise to 28.7% in fiscal 2017 from 27.7% in fiscal 2016. Its operating expenses are expected to fall by one percentage point during the period. The increase in spending could be partially offset by lower spending on restructuring and separating its security business as the company transitions to faster-growing markets.

For fiscal 1Q17, Intel expects its operating margin to fall to 28.0% from its fiscal 4Q16 margin of 30.0% as seasonal weakness lowers revenue more than expenses. However, the 28.0% margin is higher than the 24.0% margin reported in fiscal 1Q16, indicating improvement from restructuring.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2017, Intel expects its operating margin to fall to 28.0% from 30.0% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016, as seasonal weakness that lowered revenues more than offset expenses. However, the 28.0% margin is higher than 24.0% in the first quarter of 2016, indicating an improvement from restructuring.

While growth has slowed across the semiconductor industry, some segments have outperformed the industry. In the next part of this series, we will look at Intel's business segments and see how they impact the company's earnings.

We see Intel (INTC) reducing spending in the declining PC (personal computer) market to focus on high-growth markets. This has caused CCG (Client Computing Group) revenue contribution to decline from 62.0% in FY2014 to 55.0% in FY2016, even with the addition of mobile business to CCG in 2015.

Intel has scaled back capital spending on PC processors. It has adopted a segmentation strategy, focusing on growing the gaming and notebook segments. The company also eliminated some CCG jobs in 2016 as part of the restructuring.

Going further, starting with the 7nm node, Intel will stop introducing new CPU (central processing unit) architectures and processing nodes in CCG. Intel plans to introduce the first 7nm CPU for data centers.

Intel Client Computing Group (CCG) revenue from Q3 FY2015 to Q4 FY2016

Even as Intel scaled back its efforts in the PC space, CCG revenues rose 3.0% to $9.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2010. This was driven by strong demand for its 7360 LTE (Long Term Evolution) modem used in high-end gaming PCs and iPhones.

Average selling prices increased by 6.0% as the core mix reached an all-time high, driven by record shipments of high-end i7 processors. Its inventory declined slightly during the quarter.

According to Gartner, CCG revenue increased 2.0% year-over-year to $32.9 billion in fiscal 2016, even as global PC shipments fell 6.2% year-over-year. The revenue growth was due to increased orders for LTE modems. This is the first time Apple has used a modem other than Qualcomm (QCOM).

As PC shipments continue to decline, Intel is not looking to boost revenue or gain market share. It plans to make as much profit as possible. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is taking advantage of this opportunity by entering the high-end PC business with its Ryzen CPUs. AMD's goal is to gain some market share from Intel.

Intel CCG's operating profit rose 6.8% in the fourth quarter to $3.5 billion as the segment helped it maximize profits. The business unit's operating profit increased 30.0% year-over-year due to 14nm cost efficiencies, reduced spending, and a richer product mix.

For fiscal 2017, the company expects CCG revenue to decline but profits to increase as it continues to reduce spending and target high-margin products. However, its profits may take a hit as AMD steals some share of the high-end market by offering CPUs with similar performance at just half the price.

Intel is likely to continue increasing spending on its modem business to return to the mobile processor market as it looks to compete with Qualcomm in the 5G race.

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