Apple monopolizes key components, while Android phones start to use 3D sensors

Source: Content from "Central News Agency", thank you.

TrendForce, a global market research organization, pointed out that Apple's iPhone X has brought about a 3D sensing craze. Due to the high technical threshold, suppliers with mass production capabilities are still quite limited, resulting in a tight supply of vertical cavity surface emitting lasers (VCSELs), a key component of 3D sensing. It is estimated that the penetration rate of 3D sensing in smartphones this year will only be 13.1%, and Apple is still the only one to bear the burden.

Looking ahead to 2018, TrendForce's TrendForce Research Institute predicts that the global smartphone 3D sensing penetration rate will grow from 2.1% in 2017 to 13.1% in 2018, and Apple will remain the main adopter.

Apple iPhone X has brought about a 3D sensing craze, and the key component VCSEL has become a market favorite. However, due to the high technical threshold, suppliers with mass production capabilities are still quite limited, resulting in a tight supply of VCSEL, which affects the follow-up speed of the Android camp.

Huang Jingzhe, an analyst at TrendForce, said that there are three main technical barriers to the production of 3D sensing modules: first, it is difficult to produce high-efficiency VCSEL components, and the current average photoelectric conversion efficiency is only about 30%; second, the DOE, a necessary component of structured light technology, and the CIS of infrared light lenses both require extremely high technical background; third, the production process of 3D sensing modules needs to consider the problem of thermal expansion and contraction, which increases the difficulty of module assembly. These factors have led to the low production yield of 3D sensing modules at this stage.

In addition, Huang Jingzhe said that in response to market demand, although some manufacturers are actively expanding production, the overall low yield of VCSEL has led to insufficient market supply. Currently, the mass production of VCSEL is more economical with 6-inch wafers, but the production capacity of most manufacturers remains at 3-inch or 4-inch, making the overall supply and demand situation in the market even tighter.

Observing the development of 3D sensing, Huang Jingzhe said that Lenovo and Asus had previously launched mobile phone products equipped with Google Tango modules, but the market response was limited. It was not until the introduction of the TrueDepth camera module in the iPhone X in 2017 that 3D sensing regained market attention.

At this stage, the market is most concerned about who will be the first in the Android camp to follow up with 3D sensing modules. Huawei, which is currently the most popular, will release the P20 at the end of March. However, this product is reportedly only equipped with a rear 3D sensing module, and its main application function is to enhance AR functions, not iPhone X's face recognition. This shows that the Android camp will first adopt the ToF solution with a lower technical threshold.

In addition, Huang Jingzhe pointed out that there is a patent agreement between Lumentum, the main supplier of VCSEL, and Apple, which means that if the Android camp wants to follow suit in the short term, it can only choose EEL (edge-emitting laser) instead of VCSEL. However, EEL has poor photoelectric conversion efficiency and high cost, which will make it difficult for the Android camp's 3D sensing solutions to compete with Apple in terms of efficiency and cost.

Based on this, TrendForce conservatively estimates that in 2018, there may be only two Android manufacturers following suit, including Huawei and the highly popular Xiaomi, but the production volume will not be too large, so Apple will still be the largest adopter of mobile phone 3D sensing. It is expected that the total production of smartphones equipped with 3D sensing modules in the world will reach 197 million in 2018, of which iPhone accounts for 165 million. In addition, the market output value of 3D sensing modules in 2018 is estimated to be about US$5.12 billion, of which the proportion contributed by iPhone is as high as 84.5%. It is expected that by 2020, the overall output value will reach US$10.85 billion, and the annual compound growth rate from 2018 to 2020 will be 45.6%.

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