From Apple M1 Ultra, Intel's strongest weapon to challenge TSMC

Latest update time：2022-03-18

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Source: Content from CommonWealth Magazine , thank you.

At Apple's spring conference on March 12, the product that surpassed all the other products and left the most exclamation marks was the M1 Ultra, "the most powerful and awesome personal computer chip in the world," as described by Johny Srouji, Apple's senior vice president of hardware technology.

This "monster chip" as called by Apple executives uses Apple's own innovative packaging architecture UltraFusion to connect two M1 Max chips together and connect the chipset with a silicon interposer. It can transmit more than 10,000 signals simultaneously, providing ultra-low latency and inter-processor bandwidth of 2.5TB per second, which is more than four times the bandwidth of the industry's multi-chip interconnect technology.

One of the keys to its powerful performance is a carrier board that allows the two M1 Max to lie flat and stable.

Don’t underestimate this small carrier board. Any CPU that requires high-efficiency computing needs it. It is even so important that TSMC directly invests in it to consolidate its production capacity.

A senior executive of a Taiwanese substrate manufacturer confirmed to CommonWealth that the M1 Ultra processor uses TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging process. At Apple's request, TSMC sought cooperation with Taiwan's ABF substrate manufacturer Xinxing Electronics, which is located in Xinxing Electronics' new S2A plant in Shanying, Taoyuan.

"The equipment in the factory was invested by TSMC," the executive pointed out. "Apple hopes that TSMC (TSMC) can provide a one-stop service and include the substrate in the product development process to achieve optimization."

TSMC even plans to build a carrier board R&D and trial production line in its Central Science Park plant in the future.

Is TSMC also going to jump in and make substrates?

In the eyes of substrate manufacturers, there is a bit of worry. Will TSMC, after entering the advanced packaging industry, extend further downstream and enter the substrate production?

However, Chen Yiping, vice president of Isaiah Research and director of the semiconductor research team, believes that TSMC's move is only to serve major customers. "In order to clarify the importance of substrates and provide turnkey solutions, it should not really jump down to make substrates themselves."

The object of emulation is the substrate R&D production line in Intel's factory in Arizona, the U.S. The industry pointed out that Intel has a 200-person substrate R&D team in the local area, including many PhDs.

Intel transferred the results of its R&D to its cooperating substrate manufacturers, including Xinxing, Japan's Ibiden and Austria's AT&S, and even helped them to expand their factories and buy machines and equipment. Even the ABF materials supplied by Japan's Ajinomoto were specially made and could only be used on Intel's dedicated lines.

"If we want to change anything on the production line, we need Intel's approval," a senior executive at the substrate manufacturer revealed.

"TSMC also wants to follow the (Intel) model," observed a semiconductor analyst.

Why has the carrier board, which no one discussed in the past, become so important?

The order for the carrier board has arrived eight years later

Chen Jinghan, a researcher at the Industrial Technology Research Institute's Industrial Science and Technology International Institute, analyzed that from high-end laptop processors, graphics chips, AI chips, servers to automotive chips, these high-performance processors made with advanced semiconductor processes require ABF substrates.

The general manager of a major laptop manufacturer explained to TianXia that the substrate is part of the packaging technology. The miniaturization of semiconductor manufacturing processes has almost reached its physical limit. To continue to improve performance, advanced packaging technology is needed.

The general manager believes that advanced packaging can integrate multiple small chips, and can integrate semiconductor chips of different materials, and even stack chips, which can improve the overall IC performance. This also means that the substrate area carrying multi-chip packaging will become larger, and the technology and yield difficulty will be higher.

“This is probably the reason why substrate manufacturers are actively expanding production,” Chen Jinghan observed.

According to Fubon Investment Consulting, the demand for substrates will remain tight this year, mainly due to the high demand for servers. Therefore, Unimicron, Nandian, and Kinsus have all increased their production capacity by more than 20%. There is still a 20% shortfall between supply and demand.

Earlier at Xinxing's legal briefing, it was revealed that customer reservation orders had been booked from 2027 to 2030. At the time, corporate media were puzzled as to why they had to be booked eight years later?

Now the mystery is solved. From the M1Ultra, we can see that the trend of exponential growth of substrate area will intensify. It seems that the ever-expanding production capacity of Xinxing has already been taken up.

Intel's carrier board layout: large-scale outsourcing

Intel, which has been defeated by TSMC in advanced process technology, is the originator of the "factory outsourcing model".

At that time, Intel wanted to develop the multi-chip packaging technology EMIB, which was to embed the intermediary board into the carrier board. Because the carrier board had many layers and low yield, it would cause production capacity loss and shortages.

Intel has taken the lead and has already started close R&D cooperation with Japanese ABF substrate manufacturer Ibiden as early as 2018.

A report on the substrate industry by Fubon Investment Consulting pointed out that in addition to Ibiden, Intel also has outsourcing factory cooperation with Japan's Shinko, AT&S, Taiwan's Xinxing, etc.

An executive of a Taiwanese substrate manufacturer who is familiar with Intel's substrate layout revealed that Intel has the production capacity of at least six partner factories around the world, not including new factories that are being built.

Last year, Intel's long-planned one-stop strategy for substrates paid off. In an unprecedented substrate shortage, AMD, which used TSMC's leading Intel process and had a strong performance, was unable to get enough substrates, so its market share was not as expected , which made CEO Lisa Su very angry.

"No matter how much wafer production capacity you get, you need to have enough carrier boards to match it. Last year, AMD did not have enough carrier boards and could not ship," Chen Yiping pointed out.

"This is Intel's only advantage in competing with TSMC right now. If the substrate shortage continues, Intel has substrates and its technology is comparable, so people will still consider Intel," observed a senior executive at a substrate manufacturer.

Following Intel's example, outsourcing of substrates has become a trend. The industry pointed out that AMD, which hit a wall last year, has also approached Taiwan's Unimicron, Nanya and Kinsus for cooperation this year, and even Amazon has joined the outsourcing ranks.

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