Mo Dakang: Restarting the special project to accelerate the localization process

Latest update time：2021-06-06

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Source: The content is reproduced from the official account "Qiushiyuan Semiconductor Alliance", author: Mo Dakang , thank you.

Mo Dakang

May 31, 2021

Zhou Yumei, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and researcher at the Institute of Microelectronics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that during the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans, the rapid development of my country's integrated circuit industry benefited from the deployment of major projects, with outstanding results. She hoped that a new round of major projects in the field of integrated circuits would be launched as soon as possible.

The global semiconductor industry has entered a new pattern

The trade war led by the United States, coupled with factors such as Covid19 and natural disasters, has had a great impact on the global semiconductor industry. There are two main aspects. One is that the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea have invested heavily in expanding production capacity under the pretext of "national security". The other is that the market has seen a long-lost shortage and price increase trend. The industry predicts that the semiconductor industry is entering a super cycle.

The necessity and urgency of restarting major projects

Due to the great changes in global geopolitics, the United States has been frantically suppressing the progress of China's semiconductor industry, and Huawei and SMIC have been included in the "Entity List". The United States relies on its two "trump cards", including EDA tools and IP and semiconductor equipment and materials.

What needs to be clear is that as long as the two killer weapons are still there, China's semiconductor industry cannot be controlled independently, so it is necessary to fight back and make breakthroughs without flinching. The current stage of the US suppression of China's semiconductor industry is a golden opportunity for localization.

Since the task of localization is very arduous, we must make full use of our institutional advantages and concentrate our efforts to overcome difficulties. It is also one of the characteristics of the development of China's semiconductor industry, so restarting the special project is particularly important and urgent.

Correctly understand localization

The semiconductor industry chain is long and must rely on globalization, collaboration and common progress. For example, EUV lithography is the crystallization of global technology. 27% of suppliers are from the United States, 14% from Germany, 27% from Japan, and 32% from the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

However, under the new situation, the United States is bullying others by taking advantage of its power and doing everything it can to prevent China's semiconductor industry from enjoying the dividends of globalization. Therefore, under the pressure of the situation, the development of China's semiconductor industry must use localization as a "stepping stone".

At this stage, localization is particularly important for China's semiconductor industry, especially when the United States is suppressing it crazily. It has at least two functions: one is that some products can play the role of domestic substitution, which is mainly market-oriented, and the other is at a higher level, to use localization to tear open the "gap" of the Western embargo. It must be mainly funded by the state and must gather the strength of the whole country.

The difficulty and complexity of localization, including its long-term nature, must be fully appreciated.

The development of China's semiconductor industry has its own particularities, and it is necessary to promote localization at this stage. For example, Plan B implemented by Huawei has spent a lot of manpower, financial and material resources, some of which are successful, while others may not be useful, and there are great risks. Therefore, the process of promoting localization is very important to us, and it is actually a real global market competition.

First of all, we need to sort out some ideas about the localization of semiconductors to achieve twice the result with half the effort.

Target: Target two killer weapons, EDA tools and IP and semiconductor equipment and materials. If these two issues cannot be resolved or the embargo "gap" cannot be broken, the development of China's semiconductor industry will never be peaceful.

Strategy: It is impossible to set up another system, and it is also impossible to achieve 100% localization, so we must be selective, such as projects with demonstration effects such as lithography machines, concentrate superior forces, adopt some unconventional measures and methods, and coordinate production, learning, and research, etc. Through these, we can tear open the "gap" in the embargo and increase the Chinese people's ambition.

We must fully estimate that the US's suppression of China's semiconductor industry progress will continue for quite a long time. The large-scale import model that we have been accustomed to before will change, and at least some backbone enterprises such as SMIC will be restricted and their development will be uncertain.

The goal that China's semiconductor equipment and materials need to achieve is not only to solve the problem of going from "0" to "1", from nothing to something. The semiconductor industry is a typical large-scale industry, and cost is one of the important indicators. In the past, China's semiconductor equipment and materials had difficulty finding even "trial and error opportunities", so it is more urgent to solve the practical mass production of products at this stage.

Some people believe that China has a superior social system, and given the huge amount of money the country can invest at this stage, the lure of the world's largest market, and the ability to mobilize the country to overcome difficulties, there should be sufficient conditions to promote the localization of the semiconductor industry.

Obviously, this is our wish and it is correct in the long run. However, the difficulty, complexity and long-term nature of promoting the localization of the semiconductor industry cannot be underestimated.

Because the two killer weapons that the United States has cannot be obtained easily, such as EDA tools and IP, which rely on a large amount of R&D investment, which is twice the global average, and has many world-class universities. And the leading position in semiconductor equipment is a concentrated reflection of the industrial crystallization of the West in the past hundred years. At the recent lithography machine symposium held by Qiushiyuan, Professor Fu Xin talked about the lack of high-precision processing equipment and some materials in the development of lithography machines in China. This shows that it is very difficult to achieve full localization. Only by selectively making breakthroughs and growing one's own ambitions can there be hope. Therefore, it is in line with the law of scientific development to be mentally prepared for the process of semiconductor localization for 10-20 years or even longer.

The most pressing issues at present are the trial-and-error production lines for semiconductor equipment and materials, as well as lithography machines, etc. Because the difficulty is too great, we must rely on the whole country's strength to overcome the difficulties.

The objective reality is that "you can only do what you want and not what you don't want", so you must prioritize the project selection. Only when high-quality localization is achieved can the embargo of Xiwan be broken, such as the etching machine of SMIC. Therefore, both globalization and localization must be strong to truly promote the independent process of China's semiconductor industry and avoid being bullied by others.

Conclusion

Localization is not a new issue, but it contains new content under the new pattern. It is also one of the compulsory courses in the development of China's semiconductor industry. It is necessary to fully understand the difficulty and complexity of localization, especially to regard it as one of the important means to break the Western embargo.

Therefore, the high or low localization rate has only relative significance. The key lies in personal experience and the establishment of the degree of industrial autonomy.

The development of China's semiconductor industry has its own particularities, and requires both globalization and localization. However, globalization will not come naturally, and the West is unlikely to "show favor". It requires hard work, even arduous struggle.

China's semiconductor industry has its own development logic and strategy. Although some of them are imperfect and not the most effective, time is the guarantee for the ultimate success of China's semiconductor industry.

Mo Dakang: Zhejiang University alumnus, Qiushiyuan Semiconductor Alliance consultant, famous scholar and industry critic who has witnessed the 50-year development of China's semiconductor industry.

*Disclaimer: This article is originally written by the author. The content of the article is the author's personal opinion. Semiconductor Industry Observer reprints it only to convey a different point of view. It does not mean that Semiconductor Industry Observer agrees or supports this point of view. If you have any objections, please contact Semiconductor Industry Observer.

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