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TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin accepted an interview with an American TV station. He said that Taiwan's semiconductors are called "Silicon Shield", which means that the whole world needs the support of Taiwan's high-tech industry. In response to Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger's suggestion that it is necessary to rebalance the supply chain and increase American manufacturing, Liu Deyin believes that instead of changing the supply chain, the United States should invest in research and development and cultivate masters and doctoral students to enter semiconductor manufacturing.
Liu Deyin recently accepted an exclusive interview with the CBS program "60 Minutes" at TSMC's Hsinchu headquarters, and the interview was broadcast yesterday.
Regarding the recent concerns of the US authorities about the concentration of chip production capacity in Asia, Liu Deyin said that he could understand such concerns, but whether the chips were manufactured in Asia was not the crux of the issue, because no matter where the chips were produced, there would be shortages due to the epidemic.
Kissinger said that currently about 75% of the world's chips come from Asia. Twenty-five years ago, the United States accounted for about 37% of the world's chip production, but today it has fallen to 12%. Anyone who looks at the supply chain will think this is a big problem. Intel has been lobbying the US government to help revitalize the US semiconductor industry, provide incentives, subsidies and tax breaks, and keep more supply chains in the United States.
Liu Deyin said that the United States should invest in research and development instead of trying to change the supply chain. Moving the supply chain is too costly and unproductive. Everyone sticks to their own technology and abandons global cooperation, which may slow down the pace of innovation.
Regarding the recent shortage of automotive chips, Liu Deyin said that TSMC is trying to "squeeze out" more chips for automakers, "Now we think we are two months ahead of schedule, and by the end of June, we can catch up with the minimum requirements of customers." But the shortage of automotive chips will not end in two months.
Two factors have led to an increase in the semiconductor supply chain crisis
Nikkei News reported that Asia's semiconductor exports currently account for 80% of the world's total, but factors such as the concentration of production bases and the large-scale semiconductor factories have gradually revealed the risks of the semiconductor supply chain, and have also caused some major countries to begin to push for semiconductor production to return to their own countries.
This year, the snowstorm in Texas, the fire at the Renesas Electronics factory in Japan and other events have caused semiconductor factories to shut down, and the recovery of automobile production has made it difficult to eliminate the chip shortage. Some analysts estimate that the number of cars forced to reduce production due to chip shortages may reach 2.4 million, accounting for 3% of the global production expected this year.
In addition to automobiles, semiconductors are widely used in many products, and any disruption to the supply chain will have a huge impact. However, some specific factors have made the semiconductor supply chain extremely vulnerable.
The first is the concentration of production bases. In the 20 years to 2019, the proportion of semiconductor exports from Taiwan, South Korea, and mainland China in global exports has increased from 50% to 80%; if production bases are too concentrated, the ability to respond to natural disasters and geopolitical risks will be reduced.
The horizontal division of labor in the semiconductor industry has also led to the concentration of production bases in Asia. Chip manufacturers in the United States, Europe, and Japan outsource manufacturing operations to companies such as TSMC to reduce investment burdens. Currently, Taiwan, South Korea, and mainland China account for as much as 80% of the market share in the semiconductor foundry market.
Another risk factor is the large-scale semiconductor factories. The production capacity of a single semiconductor factory in Taiwan, China and South Korea is currently about twice that of 2009, and in Japan it is about 1.4 times.
The reasons for the expansion of semiconductor factories are increased supply and corporate mergers and acquisitions; for example, the current Renesas Electronics was formed by the integration of the semiconductor departments of NEC, Hitachi, and Mitsubishi Electric.
Europe is also preparing to increase its market share in the new generation of semiconductors, while Japan intends to build advanced semiconductor factories in the country. Mainland China also plans to increase its semiconductor self-sufficiency rate, with the goal of increasing it to 70% by 2025.
*Disclaimer: This article is originally written by the author. The content of the article is the author's personal opinion. Semiconductor Industry Observer reprints it only to convey a different point of view. It does not mean that Semiconductor Industry Observer agrees or supports this point of view. If you have any objections, please contact Semiconductor Industry Observer.
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