Let foldable phones fly a little longer

      Recently, plans of Samsung, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo and other mobile phone manufacturers to release foldable screen phones next year have repeatedly been exposed. Even Apple, which has never been easy to follow the trend, was exposed to have sent its foldable screen phone prototype to Foxconn for testing. Once the news came out, the industry's expectations for the foldable screen market next year were once again raised. Can foldable screen phones, which have been on the market for two years, usher in a market explosion next year?

　　Huge market space attracts manufacturers to join

　　The launch of the high-tech folding screen mobile phone prototype has successfully alleviated consumers' aesthetic fatigue of smartphones. However, after brands such as Royole, Samsung, Huawei, and MOTO successively released folding screen mobile phone products, market expectations and sales have shown a situation of "much ado about nothing". According to data from Sigmaintell, global shipments of folding screen smartphones in 2020 were about 4 million units, compared with last year's global shipments of 1.486 billion mobile phones (statistics from market research firm Counterpoint), the penetration rate is mediocre.

　　In the context of mediocre sales of foldable screens, many mobile phone brands still choose to continue to follow up. At the end of the year, news about mobile phone manufacturers' layout of foldable screen products in 2021 broke out frequently. Samsung plans to release three foldable screen mobile phones next year, OPPO will release foldable screen mobile phones in the second half of next year, vivo and Xiaomi and other brands will also launch foldable screen mobile phone products next year. The cloud roll screen mobile phone and tri-fold screen mobile phone displayed by TCL earlier are also planned to be released in 2021. Even Apple, which has always been known for its steady and cautious approach, is reported to have sent its foldable screen mobile phone prototype to Foxconn for testing. The news also said that if the durability test of its folding parts passes, it will be launched on the market.

　　The industry has interpreted the decision of many brands to follow up on the market trend of foldable screen mobile phone products from two perspectives. On the one hand, although the current penetration rate of the foldable screen market is low, its market space is huge. According to a research report by market research firm Strategy Analytics, global shipments of foldable smartphones will increase from less than 1 million units in 2019 to 100 million units in 2025. Sigmaintell also predicts that global foldable screen mobile phones will see a substantial three-digit growth in 2021, with overall shipments exceeding 10 million units, a year-on-year increase of 113%.

　　On the other hand, the industry also believes that although the current market performance of foldable screen mobile phones is average, they are very technological, and from the perspective of brand marketing, it is a good opportunity for manufacturers to demonstrate their innovative capabilities. Hou Lin, a senior analyst at GfK, said in an interview with a reporter from China Electronics News that foldable screens are still at a high level in terms of technological sense, so as a leading manufacturer, foldable screens will still exist in the market as an image benchmark in the short term.

　　The industry chain is rising and prices are falling

　　The maturity of industry chain technology and the improvement of capabilities are considered by the industry to be the important reasons why major mobile phone manufacturers are competing to place bets. Zhong Xinlong, a researcher at the Information and Software Research Institute of CCID Think Tank, told a reporter from China Electronics News that the maturity of folding screen technology and the scale of production are necessary conditions for the explosion of folding screen mobile phones, and this condition is basically mature at present. In Zhong Xinlong's view, whether mobile phone manufacturers are willing to follow up on folding screen mobile phones depends on whether upstream panel manufacturers have mature folding screen solutions, cost reduction brought about by the increase in production yield, and mass production and shipment.

　　"From the industrial development of foldable screen mobile phone products in the past two years, the panel technology and the coordination between upstream and downstream industries have begun to mature gradually, which can better support and promote the development of foldable screen mobile phones." Wu Shuyuan, senior analyst of the mobile business unit of Sigmaintell, said in an interview with a reporter from China Electronics News that at present, the price of foldable screen mobile phones already on the market is more than 10,000 yuan, and according to the latest data from research firm Counterpoint, in the second quarter of 2020, the average transaction price of smartphones in the Chinese market was only US$310 (approximately RMB 2,030), and the pricing of foldable screen mobile phones was five times the average transaction price, which is staggeringly expensive.

　　Wu Shuyuan said: "In the early stage of listing, due to factors such as immature components, the price of foldable screen mobile phones was relatively high. If foldable screen mobile phones are to be sold in large quantities, the price of the terminal will still have to sink."

　　However, the price of foldable screen phones has reached a turning point. The reporter observed that some Samsung foldable screen models have shown a price reduction trend. The Samsung Galaxy Z Flip (non-5G version), which was originally priced at 11,999 yuan, has dropped to about 7,600 yuan on leading e-commerce platforms during the Double 11 and Double 12 promotions.

　　Regarding the price reduction of Samsung's foldable screen mobile phone, professionals believe that it can be interpreted from two perspectives: one is the brand sales policy, and the other is the reduction in supply chain costs.

　　Hou Lin believes that Samsung has always set a price rule for new mobile phones, which is to reduce the price to half after a year of launch, and it has no necessary connection with foldable phones. Wu Shuyuan believes that Samsung, as a manufacturer that has been deeply involved in the foldable field for several years, will reduce the price of core components such as foldable panels as they become more mature. Therefore, based on the maturity of the core component system and the demand for terminal volume, the price of terminal products has dropped.

　　The explosion of foldable screens still needs to wait

　　There are many different opinions in the industry about the reasons for the recent price reduction of foldable screen phones and the reasons why manufacturers have entered the foldable screen phone market. However, on the question of "whether the sales of foldable screen phones will continue to grow in the future", the industry has given positive opinions. However, professionals also pointed out that this requires meeting four major conditions: first, the product price must be within a certain acceptable range, second, the gathering effect of leading brands, third, high-quality quality control guarantee, and fourth, continued exploration of application scenarios.

　　Product price is undoubtedly the most important factor in determining whether the penetration rate of foldable screen mobile phones will increase. Zhong Xinlong believes that when its price is similar to or slightly higher than that of the flagship phones of first-tier brands, that is, when the average price is between 7,000 yuan and 10,000 yuan, foldable screen mobile phones will usher in a period of rapid growth.

　　Affected by the agglomeration effect, the entry of leading manufacturers such as Huawei, Samsung, OPPO, Xiaomi, vivo, and Apple will have a positive impact on the increase in the market share of foldable screen mobile phones. The market outbreak will have to wait until 2022, and foldable screens will have to "fly for a while" next year. Specifically, Hou Lin predicts that the sales of foldable screen mobile phones are expected to be greatly improved in 2022. Samsung's foldable screen mobile phones are expected to completely replace its NOTE series of mobile phones in 2022. In addition, at the pace of Apple's product development, it is most likely to release its foldable screen mobile phone in 2022, so it is expected to drive a significant increase in the sales of foldable screen mobile phones.

　　In recent years, there have been many "crashes" in which screen quality has affected the product experience and brand reputation of mobile phones. Samsung delayed the release and recalled its foldable screen mobile phones, and Apple's iPhone 12 had a green screen problem, which greatly reduced the consumer product experience. Zhong Xinlong believes that high-quality quality control is also a challenge that needs to be faced in order to increase the market share of foldable screens. Screen suppliers need to take it seriously and it also requires more time for testing.

　　When panel technology basically meets the requirements for commercial use, how to accurately identify and enrich application scenarios becomes the key. "At present, brands are still launching foldable screens based on strategic layout." Hou Lin believes that unclear application scenarios are the problem of foldable screen phones. The original replacement target of foldable screens was tablets. From a long-term development perspective, the application scenarios of tablets have not been very clear. Although sales have increased due to students taking online classes during the epidemic, such special situations are difficult to replicate. Foldable screen phones still need to continue to explore their own unique application scenarios.