Affected by the US ban, TSMC postponed 5nm expansion and 3nm trial production to the first quarter of 2020

According to the Economic Daily, in response to the United States' expanded blockade of Huawei, TSMC notified equipment manufacturers that it has decided to postpone the 5nm expansion and 3nm trial production to the first quarter of next year, two quarters longer than the original schedule. Several TSMC equipment suppliers have received notice to suspend equipment delivery.

As for whether there will be further revisions, the supply chain revealed that TSMC is waiting to see how the trade war becomes clearer before making a decision.

TSMC said it would not disclose the production capacity configuration of individual customers; as for the 3nm trial production time, it will be announced at the earnings conference.

TSMC admitted that the US issued a new export ban on May 15, and the subsequent two-week appeal period is extremely critical. If the variables are not clarified, TSMC will be forced to adjust, but it has no plans to lower its capital expenditure for the whole year.

Foreign capital estimates that in response to the US's expanded blockade of Huawei, TSMC will reduce its capital expenditure this year by approximately US$1 billion to US$1.5 billion.

However, TSMC's supply chain said that TSMC had not previously included the capital expenditure requirements for 5nm expansion and 3nm trial production, and had originally planned to revise this year's capital expenditure upward, but the relevant plan has been postponed and will be included in next year's capital expenditure. Based on this estimate, it is expected that TSMC will lower this year's capital expenditure in its July earnings call, and will still maintain a lower limit of at least US$15 billion.

TSMC's supply chain revealed that TSMC urgently notified equipment suppliers last week that all equipment originally scheduled to be delivered from July to the end of this year has been suspended.

It is understood that TSMC provides HiSilicon with a monthly 5nm production capacity of more than 20,000 wafers, which will be increased to 1,000 wafers per day from May, an increase of more than 40%. The monthly production capacity has been increased by nearly 30,000 wafers, exceeding Apple's 27,000 wafers. TSMC's production capacity for Apple is still scheduled to increase to 30,000 wafers next month, which will be similar to HiSilicon.

However, since TSMC will no longer accept new orders from HiSilicon after the 120-day grace period, the original plan to expand the 5nm enhanced version of nearly 30,000 wafers in the third phase (P3) of Fab 18 has been postponed to the first quarter of next year.

As for the 3nm trial production line, which was originally scheduled to be installed in June this year, it has also been postponed to the first quarter of next year. However, TSMC’s internal sources revealed that the 2nm research and development will not be affected by Huawei’s new export ban and is still accelerating.