Research report: 5G's initial popularization speed is faster than 4G, driving the development of the RF and optical industry chains

CICC's research report believes that 5G mobile phone sales are one of the most important factors affecting the stock price trend of the consumer electronics sector in 2020.

According to the latest information from telecom operators, mobile phone brands, and the semiconductor industry chain, 5G is expected to be popularized faster than 4G in the initial stage. In 2020, global 5G mobile phone sales will reach 250 million units, and the global 5G mobile phone penetration rate will reach 16%. CICC also stated that China will be the world's largest 5G mobile phone market.

CICC said that smartphone shipments have returned to growth driven by 5G. After a decline in 2018/2019, 5G will drive shipments to grow by 2.4% to 1.568 billion units in 2020. Among them, sales of 5G phones are expected to reach 250 million units, with 152 million units in China.

Apple is expected to launch four 5G phones starting in the second half of next year. In the domestic Android market, it is expected that mobile phones priced above $250 (about 1,750 yuan) will have 5G as standard in 2020, and those priced at $200 (1,400 yuan) will have 5G as standard in 2021. China Unicom has said that the price of 5G phones will drop to around 1,500 yuan by mid-2020, and 5G phones priced at 1,000 yuan will appear in the second half of 2020.

As for overseas, CICC believes that the 5G progress depends on the speed of operators' 5G network deployment. At present, the United States, South Korea, Japan, the Middle East and parts of Europe are at the forefront of 5G applications. Their 5G mobile phone shipments are expected to reach 250 million and 450 million units in 2020 and 2021, and will reach 750 million units in 2022.

CICC also stated in its research report that 5G will drive the development of the radio frequency and optical industry chains.

CICC said that the biggest increase in 5G's impact on the consumer electronics industry chain is in communication components such as RF and baseband. It is expected that the RF market will grow by about 20% in 2020, mainly in the fields of RF front-end, baseband, antenna, etc., where there are great opportunities.

In addition, AR/VR, cloud games, and short videos will be the main applications of 5G mobile phones in 2020. The popularization of 5G mobile phones will promote the rapid development of the mobile phone optical industry chain.

It is expected that ToF will be applied more to rear cameras in 2020, making AR 3D somatosensory games possible. The number of cameras in some models may also increase from three to four or five, and the number and specifications of front cameras will continue to increase, which is expected to bring more growth to optical industry chain manufacturers.

Taking Apple as an example, it is expected that among the four iPhone models in 2020, the two high-end models (6.7/6.1-inch OLED, stainless steel middle frame, support for Sub-6GHz and millimeter wave) will add a ToF camera on the basis of this year's three cameras to support AR/VR functions. The main camera will adopt a new optical image stabilization design that supports Sensor Shift, which will greatly increase the price of motors and modules.