IHS Markit: It will take some time for 8K TVs to become popular

During this year’s IFA Global Press Conference, Maria Rua Aguete, executive director of technology, media and telecommunications markets at IHS Markit, delivered an industry briefing that highlighted a particular trend among TV manufacturers, with a special focus on whether consumers are truly ready for 8K TVs.

Since Samsung launched the 8K TV Q900R in 2018, TV manufacturers have begun to launch 8K models one after another to demonstrate the advancement of their own technology. Due to their huge screens, high resolution of 33 million pixels and high prices, these models are naturally placed in the flagship series.

Samsung re-launched the Q950R QLED series in 2019 and said 8K is an important part of its future business plan. LG has a 75-inch SM99 NanoCell LCD TV and the world's first 8K OLED TV 88Z9, both of which have not yet been announced, and are expected to be available in the second half of 2019. Sony has 85- and 98-inch ZG9, the latter of which is priced at up to $70,000.

Companies like Hisense, Philips and Panasonic have also joined.

However, as reported by Korea JoongAng Daily, Aguete believes that this is a bit premature and that consumers are not interested in 8K within the next five years. She told the news outlet, "In Europe, people have realized that it is a bit too early to talk about 8K and it will not happen in the near future. In fact, our forecast numbers are also very low."

IHS Markit cut its 2019 sales estimate by 8.5% from its January forecast to 308,900 units, 30% lower than the total forecast in October 2018. It will account for 0.14% of all TVs sold in 2019, and IHS predicts that this proportion will not exceed 3% by 2023.

“Technology companies are always looking to push the boundaries of technology,” Aguete added, “yet there seems to be a disconnect between consumers and 8K TV manufacturers at the moment.”

Many issues hinder the adoption of 8K, which are precisely the key factors in the introduction of new technologies to the consumer market. The first is the high cost. Although a high price can push a product into the "must have" category (such as a high-end mobile phone), in order to attract the mass market, it must meet certain budget considerations.

Secondly, there is a lack of sufficient 8K content. This is partly due to the lack of infrastructure that would allow 8K content to be produced and distributed cost-effectively. There are plans for some global events such as the Olympics to be broadcast in 8K, but the small number of 8K TV sets expected worldwide seems a bit premature.

8K content will take up a lot of data bandwidth when streamed throughout consumers’ homes, placing additional strain on wireless networks that already carry multiple devices in most households.

Aguete noted that even today’s high-end 4K TVs are still emerging, with global penetration at just 8.8%, and “very few channel operators have full UHD channels. If they were already a bit overwhelmed by the cost of 4K, imagine what they are thinking about 8K.”

According to IHS, China has made an important contribution to the promotion of 8K. At present, the penetration rate of ultra-high-definition (UHD) TVs in China is close to 20%, ranking first in the world, while the average in the Asia-Pacific region is only 5%.

Aguete explained: "In China, 4K TV is a status symbol. It is the latest technology and it makes you look good."