Analysis of China's humanoid robot industry

China's humanoid industry has already begun preparations in terms of technology, commercialization, and industrial chain.

New technologies, new products, and new business models represented by humanoid robots and general artificial intelligence are booming and are becoming the commanding heights of global innovation and a new track for future industries.

In October this year, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots", positioning humanoid robots as "integrated, high-end manufacturing, new materials and other advanced technologies, which are expected to become disruptive after computers, electronics, and automobiles , and will profoundly change human production and lifestyles and reshape the global industrial development landscape", further recognizing the humanoid robot industry, which gives us a glimpse of the importance and potential of this track.

The prospect of "next generation disruptive products" is also attractive enough. According to CEO Musk's prediction, in the future, the number of humanoid robots will far exceed that of electric vehicles. Assuming that the ratio of humanoid robots to population is 2:1, the demand for humanoid robots in the future is expected to reach 10-20 billion units. Goldman Sachs' analysis also shows the commercial expectations of humanoid robots - the market space for humanoid robots will reach at least US$6 billion in the next 10-15 years, and in the best case, it is expected that the market space for humanoid robots will reach US$154 billion in 2035. The huge commercial value has led to many companies around the world entering the humanoid robot market.

Before the new round of technological revolution arrives, is China ready? By analyzing the exploration of the Chinese humanoid robot industry in the past 10 years in terms of technology accumulation, commercialization, and industrial chain construction, we can find out.

China is catching up in the humanoid robot race

Not long ago, the People's Daily Online Research Institute released the "Humanoid Robot Technology Patent Analysis Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), which conducted an in-depth analysis of humanoid robot technology patents around the world and elaborated on the technology patent layout trends of the humanoid robot industry to date.

The report mentioned that the global patent applications for humanoid robots have gone through four stages of development. Among them, the 21st century is the stage of high integration and high dynamics of humanoid robots. Many international technologies have made attempts in this stage. Among them, Japan and the United States are the countries with the earliest layout of technology patents.

In terms of products, these two countries have also launched some humanoid robot products. In 2000, Honda launched the agile humanoid robot ASIMO, which can walk, jump, run, etc. in a posture close to that of humans; in 2011, Honda launched an upgraded version of ASIMO, which has the ability to judge, avoid obstacles, and act; in 2013, Boston Dynamics in the United States launched the bipedal robot Atlas with strong balance and obstacle-crossing capabilities, which can undertake search and rescue missions in dangerous environments; in 2014, SoftBank and AR jointly launched the humanoid robot Pepper, which is equipped with voice and emotion recognition technology on the basis of action capabilities and can communicate with people.

In contrast, the humanoid robot industry in China started relatively late. It was not until 1990 and 2000 that the National University of Defense Technology successfully developed China's first bipedal walking robot and humanoid robot respectively. The first humanoid robot, "Pioneer", has certain language functions, a walking frequency of 2 steps per second, and can walk in small deviation and uncertain environments.

At the corporate level, UBTECH is one of the earliest companies in China to develop humanoid robots. It launched a small humanoid robot in 2012, began developing a large humanoid robot Walker in 2016, and released the first generation of Walker in 2018. At present, UBTECH Walker has achieved four iterations, with visual positioning navigation, hand-eye coordination, autonomous movement and decision-making capabilities, achieving smooth and fast walking and accurate and safe interaction, and can provide personalized and warm services in a variety of scenarios.

However, through the accumulation of technical patents, the Chinese humanoid robot industry has achieved the whole process from lagging behind, to following, and then leading in the past 10 years, gradually surpassing countries that invested early, such as Japan, the United States, and South Korea. The data of the "Report" shows that the number of humanoid robot technology patent applications worldwide has exceeded 15,000. As of May 31, 2023, China ranks first in the world in the number of humanoid robot patent applications (6,618) and the number of valid patents (3,110).

Behind this process, research institutions represented by universities such as Tsinghua University and Beijing Institute of Technology and enterprises such as UBTECH Robotics have laid a good technical foundation for the Chinese humanoid robot industry. Taking Tsinghua University and UBTECH Robotics as examples, the former has nearly 600 patent applications in terms of the number of patent applications for core components of humanoid robots, the number of patent applications for drive control, and the number of patent applications for body structure, ranking second in China; the latter has more than 800 applications, both ranking first in China and second in the world.

The turning point of humanoid robot industrialization has arrived

In the past, Honda ASIMO and SoftBank Pepper were both star products in the field of humanoid robots, but these products all encountered difficulties in commercialization.

Previous humanoid robots were like the big brother robots of the past, with high costs and few functions. These were the main obstacles that affected the commercialization of humanoid robots in the past.

For example, if humanoid robots want to adapt to the human living environment, they need to have higher motor skills, environmental perception, decision-making ability, etc., so the cost requirements are high; on the other hand, humanoid robot technology is complex and needs to adapt to many human needs. It often only needs six or seven joints, but humanoid robots often have more than 40 joints. The complex technology, coupled with the long research and development cycle, makes the technology cost continue to rise.

However, with the continuous maturity of humanoid robot technology and the rapid development of cutting-edge technologies such as AI and big models, the situation is changing. AI big models have improved the intelligence level of robots. Humanoid robots have not only made breakthroughs in this area, but also continuously improved their capabilities in human-computer interaction.

Humanoid robots have gone through four stages of development so far. In the first three stages, humanoid robots experienced "slow static walking - continuous dynamic walking - high dynamic motion performance". In the fourth stage today, with the maturity of relevant technologies, humanoid robots have officially entered the initial stage of commercialization, and many companies around the world have also begun to enter the humanoid robot market.

Among them, UBTECH took advantage of China's mature industrial chain and first-mover advantage to take the lead in realizing the commercial application of humanoid robots, including the small-scale sales of humanoid robots in science and technology museums, scientific research and education, and also used the technology of humanoid robots in artificial intelligence education, smart logistics, smart health care, commercial services and other fields. On December 1, UBTECH passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange . Its prospectus shows that as of June 30, 2023, UBTECH has served more than 50 countries and regions in the world, has more than 900 corporate customers, and has sold more than 760,000 robots.

In the process of commercialization, it is particularly important to find the right scenario. At present, industrial manufacturing has become one of the most popular scenarios.

At the 2023 World Robot Conference, Zhou Jian, founder, chairman and CEO of UBTECH Robotics, said that UBTECH Robotics is currently focusing on three major application scenarios for humanoid robots, including industrial manufacturing, commercial services and family companionship. Among them, intelligent manufacturing will become the first large-scale application field of humanoid robots. Humanoid robots will redefine workers in the AI ​​era and free people from repetitive labor; commercial service scenarios are the fastest-growing market for humanoid robots, while family landing scenarios are the most promising application markets for humanoid robots.

At present, UBTECH Robotics has made various arrangements for the application of humanoid robots in the industrial field. First, it has developed the humanoid robot Walker S for industrial use. Second, it has established a joint venture with Tianqi Shares, a new energy vehicle manufacturing supply chain company, which also means that its ecological cooperation in the field of new energy vehicles is wider and deeper. Third, it has cooperated with a number of leading new energy vehicle companies to plan the application of humanoid robots in manufacturing scenarios in stages.

Also at the 2023 World Robot Conference, Xiaomi Group Senior Vice President Zeng Xuezhong stated that Xiaomi is currently actively promoting the phased implementation of humanoid robots in its own manufacturing system, and will build a general humanoid robot innovation demonstration project in Yizhuang, Beijing, to carry out innovative application demonstrations for typical manufacturing scenarios such as 3C factories and automobile factories.