How to find a breakthrough in the dilemma faced by mobile robots

Please check the agenda of the 2022 Gaogong Lithium Battery Intelligent Manufacturing Summit! Looking back at 2022, the epidemic was raging. The instability of the global supply chain has intensified, and the mobile industry is under great pressure as a whole in 2022. Even so, statistics from the Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute (GGII) show that in the fourth quarter of 2022, with the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures and the release of backlog orders, production (including mobile robots) increased by 25.84% year-on-year and 3.73% month-on-month. At the 2022 (3rd) Gaogong Mobile Robot Annual Conference, Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, Chairman of Gaogong Robot, made a keynote speech on "Resilience and Growth under Change", from the current situation, thinking to how to break the situation, and summarized the mobile robot in 2022 from a macro perspective, and made an analysis of 2023 and then looked forward to it.

Review丨2022 Industry Keywords: Moving Forward in the Mire

In 2022, the sales volume of mobile robots in the Chinese market exceeded 80,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of less than 30%. Among them, unmanned forklifts and material box robots performed well, and magnetic AGVs continued to maintain a certain growth driven by automobiles and industries. From the perspective of the downstream application market, in 2022, the new energy, automobile, tobacco, and petrochemical industries performed well, and the demand for e-commerce, 3C, medicine, panels and other industries was relatively sluggish. It can be said that mobile robot manufacturers are moving forward with heavy burdens in 2022, looking for new paths in the quagmire. These difficulties are mainly manifested in: obvious differentiation of downstream demand, shrinking profit margins, insufficient orders, project delays, difficulty in financing, difficulty in collecting payments, insufficient cash flow, abandoned orders, price increases of core components, and increased uncertainty in production and operation . Therefore, throughout the year, 60% of companies reported insufficient orders, 75% of companies reported a decline in gross profit, 50% of companies reported delayed payment, nearly 90% of exhibitions were canceled or postponed, and more than 30% of companies laid off employees. This also caused the growth of the original enterprises to slow down significantly, entering a vicious cycle of increasing revenue but not profits.

Putting aside the overall environment, we summarize the following five industry consensuses on the reasons for this phenomenon: First, the strategic thinking is unclear, products or solutions? Domestic or foreign? Continue to stick to the old business, or actively explore new applications? The strategic thinking of many companies has been wavering. Second, over-reliance on capital and increased difficulty in financing have led to insufficient cash flow. According to incomplete statistics from GGII, there were 33 investment and financing events in the field of mobile robots in 2022, with a total amount of more than 5.155 billion yuan, of which financing cases in the two major fields of unmanned forklifts and AMR accounted for 70%; the number of financings decreased, but the amount of single financing increased by nearly 26%. Capital concentrated on the head manufacturers, and the gap between manufacturers is gradually widening, and the Matthew effect is becoming more and more obvious. Third, the supply chain is not well prepared. For example, the East China supply chain rupture incident is the culprit for the price increase of core components. Fourth, the company expanded too fast, resulting in redundant manpower, increased management burden, and too much performance pressure on the company. Fifth, the industry is rolling hard. First, there was a price war, which led to a decline in gross profit, a reduction in profit margins, and a difficult survival for companies. There are different opinions on strategic cooperation, and it is difficult to reach a consensus.

In Zhang Xiaofei's words, the processing rate of factories in 2022 will only be between 30% and 60%. Ideally, companies will only produce 60%. The more they produce, the more they lose. Even in the new energy sector, which has a better market environment, it is in a downturn compared to 2021. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, many companies have been living off their old capital in 2020-2022. However, Zhang Xiaofei also emphasized that with the promotion of favorable policies such as "Made in China 2025" and 4.0, China's manufacturing level and robots have developed very rapidly. China's robot market will show strong competitiveness under the catalysis of policies and markets.

Breakthrough丨 How to find a breakthrough when facing a dilemma

When faced with a dilemma, finding a solution is the primary solution for every company.

Taking the leading manufacturers as an example, they generally adopt the three traditional methods of financing, expansion, and mergers and acquisitions. Due to their good development, leading manufacturers have an absolute advantage in financing compared with mid-tier and lower-tier companies; this also enables some leading manufacturers to be the first to go public and enhance their comprehensive strength. In addition, obtaining orders, actively seizing emerging markets, and merging or merging with manufacturers with core technologies and high cost-effectiveness are also the tricks for leading manufacturers to break through.

However, Zhang Xiaofei also emphasized that although mergers and acquisitions involve core technologies, one must not engage in bargain hunting and must not step on the "minefield" of China's intellectual property protection.

In addition to the top manufacturers, mid-tier manufacturers have also started to lay off employees on a small scale, retain core businesses and core customers, actively establish "cooperative" relationships with peers and upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and actively improve business efficiency (such as delivery, repurchase, customer unit price, etc.) to find a way out . Zhang Xiaofei joked, "Mid-tier companies are a bit like the second child in the family, very flexible and able to connect the top and bottom." However, mid-tier companies also have a fatal weakness: they are very easy to expand, and therefore they have stepped on many landmines on the road to development.

Then there are the mid-tier and lower-tier manufacturers, who are more cautious in breaking out because they do not have the advantages of the top and mid-tier manufacturers. As a result, they cut staff to reduce unnecessary expenses and try their best to maintain existing business and serve old customers. From the perspective of industry development, it is more difficult for such small enterprises that aim to cut staff, maintain capital and survive.

Some new manufacturers, such as parts, body, integrators, etc., have worked hard on product types and industry applications, and strived to gain a foothold in unmanned forklifts, AMR, composite, material boxes, 3C, lithium batteries, etc. This has also led to obvious differentiation in downstream application industries, such as the hot demand in the new energy industry (over 80% growth, mainly lithium batteries), the excellent performance of automobiles, petrochemicals, and tobacco, and the average performance of 3C, e-commerce, food, etc.

In short, both leading manufacturers and mid-level and lower-level companies are seeking new solutions to the difficulties.

Get on board丨 Is it too late to get on board the new growth point?

The situation of the mobile robot market in 2022 is not optimistic, so finding new growth points is the fundamental way to maintain a company's continued profitability. Comparing trade logistics and industrial logistics, the growth rate of demand in the trade sector in 2022 will be less than 25%, and the industrial sector will become the main growth driver of mobile robots.

Therefore, before getting on board, you should know whether this industry is worth investing in.

Take the lithium battery industry as an example: According to the latest data from the State Administration of Taxation, in 2022, the country will exempt 87.9 billion yuan in new energy vehicle purchase tax, the invoiced sales volume will be 5.681 million vehicles, and the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be 23.5%.

Among them, power batteries and consumer batteries constitute the majority of the industrial robot market in the entire lithium battery industry. The application of mobile robots in the lithium battery industry is dominated by domestic manufacturers. Based on the advantages of high cost performance, high stability, and high service quality, domestic manufacturers continue to gain recognition from lithium battery manufacturers. Mobile robots can effectively improve the production efficiency of lithium battery production lines, reduce operating costs, and open up the data closed loop within the factory. At present, the importance of mobile robots in production line process links and line-side warehouses is becoming increasingly irreplaceable. It is worth noting that in the robot and module PACK segment, the demand for a single line is growing at a rate of 20% per year.

As a result, the players in the lithium battery industry have also grown rapidly. For example, warehouse integrators include Zhongding Integration, Ange, Today International, Kailes, Blue Sword Intelligence, Rob, Dongjie Intelligence, Chuangzhi Technology, Honeywell, Megvii Robotics, and Pioneer Intelligence; AGV body manufacturers include Hikvision Robotics, Huarui Technology, Hangcha Intelligence, Jiashun Intelligence, Guozi Robotics, Ajiwei, Geek+, UAI, Future Robotics, Mu Niu Liu Ma, Stand Robotics, Siasun Robotics, Guanhong Intelligence, Jiazhi Technology, Jiateng Robotics, CSG Huaxiao, and BlueCore Technology, which are booming .