Industrial robot sales this year may exceed 300,000 units, with new energy being the biggest driving force

On December 14, the reporter learned from the 2022 Gaogong Robot Annual Conference held on the same day that in 2022, the automobile industry will recover, and new energy industries such as lithium batteries and photovoltaics will advance by leaps and bounds. The overall sales volume of China's industrial robot industry is expected to exceed 300,000 units.

Looking ahead to 2023, the overall growth rate of China's industrial robot market is expected to be 20% to 25%, and the new energy industry will remain the biggest driving force.

China's industrial robot sales may exceed 300,000 units this year

Under the complex economic environment, the growth rate of China's industrial robot market has declined compared with the previous year, but sales will still exceed 300,000 units.

On December 14, Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, Chairman of Gaogong Robot, introduced at the 2022 Gaogong Robot Annual Meeting that the overall sales volume of industrial robots in China is expected to reach 303,000 units in 2022, an estimated increase of about 16% from the 261,300 units in the previous year, and a significant decline from the annual growth rate of nearly 54% in the previous year. The sales volume of industrial robots of domestic enterprises reached 132,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate higher than the overall level of the industry, and the market share of domestic enterprises remained at about 40%.

From the trend point of view, the overall sales level of industrial robots this year is showing a trend of low opening and flat trend. In the first ten months of this year, China's industrial robot output was 362,600 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. However, the output in October was 39,000 sets, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.4%, which was significantly better than the annual average. Gaogong Robot explained that regional blockades and tight supply chains in the first half of the year led to delivery problems in robot trials, but there is still a large space for downstream procurement budgets. After the supply chain problems are resolved, the demand side is expected to increase.

From the perspective of downstream industries, in the past, the demand for industrial robots in the automotive and 3C industries accounted for nearly 60%. This year, the new energy industry has become the largest demand driver, and the growth rate of demand in the lithium battery, photovoltaic, and automobile industry dominated by new energy vehicles has increased. In addition, demand in semiconductors, logistics and warehousing has also increased to a certain extent. The traditional main downstream 3C industry has declined significantly, and the growth rate of demand in metal processing, home appliances, food and beverage industries has also declined.

Corresponding to the changes in the downstream market, driven by the automobile and new energy markets, the demand for various types of large-load robots has increased. In the first half of this year, the market share of medium- and large-load six-axis robots exceeded 30% for the first time, and the demand for high-speed, large-load SCARA robots also increased. However, due to the impact of factors such as the downturn in the 3C industry, the market for small six-axis robots has declined significantly year-on-year; the parallel robot market has been dragged down by the food, beverage, and daily chemical industries.

Gaogong Robotics pointed out that there is a small gap in the supply chain of foreign robot companies, which has led to longer delivery time. Domestic automobile OEMs are also seeking supply chain security and may accept domestic heavy-duty robots at this point in time. Domestic heavy-duty robots have a short window of opportunity. At present, domestic manufacturers such as Estun and Efort have launched new heavy-duty products with a load capacity of more than 130kg to participate in the competition in the field of large-load robots.

Next year, the industry growth rate will still exceed 20%

Looking ahead to the coming year, Gaogong Robot expects the growth rate of China's industrial robot market to be around 20% to 25% in 2023. Gaogong Robot said that this expectation is a combination of the backlog of robot orders from various companies this year and the judgment of demand in downstream industries. The overall recovery of the industry is gradually fading away.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the new energy industry is still the largest source of growth in the industry, and the demand for industrial robots is expected to exceed 20%. Gaogong Robot believes that in addition to new energy vehicles, power batteries, and photovoltaics, the development of the energy storage battery industry is expected to further increase the thickness of the new energy industry.

Dr. Du Yixian, director of the research institute of equipment manufacturer Lyrics (688499), also agrees with this judgment. He pointed out that the overall labor cost of the photovoltaic industry is high and the degree of intelligence is low. In the battery cell manufacturing process, the warehousing logistics and sorting and packaging processes urgently need to be upgraded to intelligence. In the silicon rod machine and slicing factory, there are still a lot of rickshaws for transportation. In the lithium battery industry, although the production capacity has gradually reached its peak, high quality is the core demand of the market. Improving equipment automation and unmanned operation is a necessary prerequisite for reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

Du Yixian cited the example that the long-cell production line newly launched by Liyuanheng currently uses dozens of robots for every 1GWh of production capacity. He predicts that by 2025, the lithium battery industry's demand for mobile robots is expected to exceed 25,000 units, with a compound growth rate of more than 38% from 2021 to 2025.

According to Lv Jian, deputy general manager of the robotics division of industrial robot manufacturer Estun (002747), the scale of the 3C and new energy industries has been very obvious in the past two years, according to the company's statistics. In response to market changes, the company has launched the world's first photovoltaic robot and launched a large-load robot to enter the lithium battery industry. At present, the company's cumulative sales of photovoltaic robots have exceeded 10,000 units, covering more than 90% of photovoltaic module users worldwide.

In terms of market structure, participating companies expect that the Matthew effect in the industry will be strengthened and the penetration rate of domestic brands will increase.

Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute (GGII) analyzed that the Chinese industrial robot market has re-formed a "one super and many strong" competition pattern. In 2023, there will be at least two domestic industrial robot manufacturers with annual sales exceeding 20,000 units, and the number of domestic manufacturers with annual sales exceeding 10,000 units will reach 5, and the market concentration will further increase. Estun predicts that the market share of the top three domestic robots is expected to reach about 18%. In addition, the market pattern of collaborative robots in subdivided fields is expected to undergo major changes. Three leading companies may be listed in 2023, and the overall market share of the top three companies in the market may increase to more than 50%.