Leaders in the industrial robot segment are emerging, and domestic replacement is certain

 　　1. Entering the late stage of industrialization, replacing people with machines is the general trend

　　1.1 The epidemic did not affect the industry's recovery, and the manufacturing industry continued to recover

　　my country's industrial robot production has emerged from the sluggish negative growth stage since September 2018 since October 2019. Although affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, it did not change the overall recovery trend of the industry. Since October 2019, the industry's production growth rate has repeatedly set new highs year-on-year. In March 2021, the output of industrial robots was 33,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 80.8%.

　　In terms of global sales, since the fourth quarter of 2018, the industrial robot industry has been greatly affected by the downturn in the downstream automobile and 3C industries, which has had a certain impact on the production and sales of industrial robots in 2019, with sales falling 11.61% year-on-year. However, with the continued automation trend and technological improvements, the average annual growth rate from 2020 to 2022 can be maintained at 11.97%. In 2022, global industrial robot sales are expected to reach 593,000 units.

　　From the perspective of downstream demand, manufacturing investment has maintained a recovery trend worldwide. From the perspective of the manufacturing PMI index of major countries in the world, the UK manufacturing PMI reached a 26-year high of 60.9 in April; the US PMI has been above 50 for 14 consecutive months since March last year. Domestically, my country's manufacturing PMI has remained above the boom-bust line since March 2020, and the cumulative fixed asset investment in the manufacturing industry rebounded to 29.8% year-on-year in March 2021. From the perspective of the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the automobile manufacturing industry and the 3C industry, which account for the largest proportion of industrial robot applications, in terms of fixed asset investment in the automobile manufacturing industry, benefiting from the automobile consumption promotion policies issued successively by various regions, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in the automobile manufacturing industry has continued to narrow, reaching -3.3% in March 2021; fixed asset investment in the 3C manufacturing industry has steadily recovered since April last year, and by March, it had increased by 40.4% year-on-year. Overall, the prosperity of the downstream manufacturing application end has maintained a continuous recovery trend.

　　1.2 The demographic dividend is gradually fading, and replacing people with machines is a definite trend

　　Favorable policies are frequently issued, and the country strongly supports the development of industrial robots. my country has been the world's largest market for industrial robots for many consecutive years. As terminal equipment for realizing automated production, industrial robots play a vital role in manufacturing upgrades. The government has repeatedly issued policies to strongly support the development of my country's industrial robot industry. The "Made in China 2025" proposed by the State Council has clarified the development direction of manufacturing upgrades, and industrial robots are the top priority. With the industrial policy of China's intelligent manufacturing upgrades and the growth of demand in downstream industries, it is expected that by 2025, key areas of my country's manufacturing industry will be fully intelligent, and key positions will be replaced by robots. At the same time, with the decline in prices, improvement in performance, and expansion of application areas of industrial robots, the industrial robot industry will continue to maintain a rapid growth momentum. In May 2020, the two sessions once again proposed to support the development of the core components industry of industrial robots, and are optimistic about the accelerated closure of the domestic industrial robot industry chain in the future.

　　The demographic dividend advantage of my country's manufacturing industry is gradually fading. In the past, the growth of China's manufacturing industry mainly relied on the low-cost advantage brought by the large base of employed population. From 1994 to 2019, China's population birth rate fell from 17.8‰ to 10.48‰, lower than the global crude birth rate of 18.17‰ in 2018. The decline in birth rate directly led to the increase in wages of manufacturing employees. The average wage of employees in urban units in my country's manufacturing industry rose from 30,916 yuan in 2010 to 78,147 yuan in 2019, with an average annual compound growth rate of 10.85%; from the perspective of the distribution of the labor force population structure, the proportion of the population aged 15-64 in my country's total population has continued to decline, and by 2019 it was only 70.65%. It can be seen that my country's population cost is constantly increasing, the proportion of the working-age population is constantly declining, and my country's demographic dividend advantage is gradually fading.

　　The price gap is gradually narrowing, and replacing people with machines has a high cost-effectiveness. From the perspective of industrial robot prices, between 1996 and 2019, the average import price of industrial robots in my country has dropped from US$47,600 per unit to US$16,300 per unit. The gap between the falling prices of industrial robots and the rising wages of manufacturing workers is shrinking. Considering the improvements in efficiency and safety brought about by industrial robots replacing manual labor, replacing people with machines has a high cost-effectiveness.

　　The epidemic has driven the demand for automation upgrades in the manufacturing industry. Mr. Shi Shengjun, editor-in-chief of my country's first robot industry blue book, "China Robot Industry Development Report (2019)", said in a recent interview that after the epidemic, more industries will accelerate the push towards "less people, unmanned, and intelligent"; and at the People's Daily "Jintai Roundtable" People's War Epidemic·Enterprise Countermeasures Co-discussion Meeting, Mr. Teng Tai, President of Wanbo New Economy Research Institute, also said that after the epidemic is over, companies will increasingly adopt modern management methods such as automation, robots, and artificial intelligence. In this COVID-19 epidemic, the leading manufacturing companies have a high level of automation and have shown great advantages in resuming work. After the short-term impact of the epidemic is over, it is bound to promote the further application and penetration of robot automation, and will promote the increase of the automation rate of the manufacturing industry in a long period of time. Overall, the long-term trend of replacing people with machines will not change.

　　1.3 Entering the late stage of industrialization, compared with Japan, industrial robots developed rapidly in this stage

　　my country has fully entered the late stage of industrialization. In 2019, my country's per capita GDP was 70,891.78 yuan, about 10,141.89 US dollars, which is in the late stage of industrialization in the Chenery model; the three-industry structure was 7.1%: 38.6%: 54.3%, satisfying A < 10%, I < S, and is in the post-industrial stage in the Chenery model; the employment proportion of the primary industry in 2019 was 25.1%, which meets the late industrialization standard in the Chenery model; my country's urbanization rate is 60.60%, which is in the late stage of industrialization in the Chenery model. Comprehensively judging, my country's industrialization has not yet been completed. Although it fully meets the late industrialization standards, it will still be in the late stage of industrialization development during the entire "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

　　Drawing on Japan's development experience, my country's industrial robot development prospects are still broad

　　Although my country is the world's largest industrial robot sales country, the ownership density is still relatively low. Although my country's industrial robot sales reached 140,500 units in 2019, accounting for 37.67% of global sales, it continues to maintain its position as the world's largest supplier of industrial robots. However, judging from the per capita ownership density of industrial robots in major countries in the world, Singapore, which currently has the highest industrial robot ownership density in the world, has reached 918 units per 10,000 people. In comparison, in 2019, although my country's industrial robot ownership density increased by 47 units per 10,000 people compared with last year, reaching 187 units per 10,000 people, it is still far lower than that of more developed countries such as South Korea (855), Japan (364), and Germany (346). There is still huge room for growth in domestic industrial robots in the future.

　　The current development background of industrial robots in my country is very similar to that of Japan: a sharp rise in labor costs, upgrading of industrial structure, and support from special national policies. According to the Chenery industrialization model, Japan entered the late stage of industrialization around 1970. During this period, industrial robot products, one of the representative equipment for intelligent and automated production, entered a period of explosive growth in demand. The number of robots in Japan had an average annual compound growth rate of more than 50% between 1970 and 1980.

　　1.4 There is still room for structural upgrading in downstream application fields

　　Among the downstream application fields of industrial robots, the automotive and 3C fields accounted for the highest proportion. In 2019, the automotive and 3C industries accounted for more than 50% in total, among which the automotive manufacturing industry is the most widely used, mature and largest process field for industrial robots, accounting for 28.15%. The 3C industry has high requirements for production efficiency and precision in product manufacturing, and the characteristics of industrial robots meet its high precision and high flexibility requirements. Its downstream applications accounted for 23.59%, ranking second.