Data Analysis: Tesla Q3 Sales in California

Today I will update Tesla's sales data in the United States. It is not easy to collect data on new energy vehicles in the United States, but it is mainly divided into two parts, one is the data from California (similar to the purchase restriction cities in China), and the other is the data from the United States. From these two aspects, we can see what Tesla has done in terms of model and penetration in key areas.

01. Tesla’s sales in California

Judging from the overall sales in California, the sales of BEV and HEV this year are acceptable. The market share of PHEV has gradually declined due to insufficient supply in the United States, showing the following characteristics:

Figure 1 Current sales and market share of BEV, PHEV and HEV in California

Let's first look at Tesla's quarterly deliveries in California. Overall, the data showed 23,250, 9,833, and 17,017 units in the first three quarters of 2020. Q2 was affected by the epidemic and entered a historic point, and Q3 began to gradually recover.

Figure 2 Tesla’s quarterly deliveries in California

From the perspective of Tesla's own product series, the proportion of Model 3 has begun to decline further. If we open this quarterly delivery, we can see the following results:

1) The demand for Model 3 is decreasing, which is a continuous process. After the demand dropped to a low of 6,000 last month, it recovered in Q3 but only rebounded to 6,698 units.

2) The demand for Model Y is increasing rapidly, with the volume in Q3 reaching 7,263 units, surpassing Model 3 in Q3 to become the sales pillar of Tesla.

3) Model S and Model Y are two low-priced cars, and their overall sales are currently maintained at around 1,000-1,500 units delivered per quarter. Sales will only increase after the next generation.

Figure 3 Tesla's product sales structure in California

At present, the competitive supply of pure electric vehicles in the United States is very insufficient. The sales of GM's Bolt and the Prius replaced by Tesla are shown below. Since Q4 2019, the demand for BMW I3 has basically returned to zero, while the Bolt BEV, which is competing in a different market, can still retain a piece of market share. Model 3 has also eaten up some of the demand for Model S/X. In the short term, BMW's iX3 will not be sold in the United States, so the sales of other electric vehicles in the US market are mainly concentrated on Mustang BEV and Cadillac BEV.

Figure 4 Tesla registrations in California over the past four years

Compared with other competitors, Tesla's market share has reached the peak in several market segments. From the perspective of product series, Tesla has indeed reached the point where it needs to make pure electric pickup trucks to open up a larger market in the United States.

Figure 5 Electric vehicles and Tesla’s market in California

Currently, Tesla has surpassed Volkswagen Group's luxury cars (Audi + Porsche) in California, and has surpassed BMW and is basically on par with Mercedes-Benz. This level of growth is astonishing.

Figure 6. Sales comparison of Tesla and several luxury car brands in California

02. Data for the entire United States

According to Teslike's estimates, Q4 will see a big rebound in the United States, and Tesla's quarterly deliveries in the United States may reach 83,000 units. If calculated based on this data, Tesla's deliveries in the US market this year will be 211,800 units (180,000 units in 2018, and nearly 186,600 units in 2019). A large part of this is due to the increase in the volume of Model Y. If the data this year is broken down, the demand for Model S+Model X in the US market is 33,000 units, Model 3 is 94,100 units, and Model Y is 83,800 units. Model Y has effectively diverted Model 3.

Figure 7 Tesla’s sales in the United States and its cumulative sales in North America in 2020

Figure 8 Tesla's U.S. volume distribution from 2012 to 2020

Summary: I think the California market can objectively reflect Tesla's competitiveness. Tesla is currently in a stable development period without particularly good subsidy policies in the United States. Rapidly increasing market share in China and Europe has become its main goal. Of course, Model Y is bound to have problems with diverting traffic to its own models.