Toyota continues to bet that solid-state batteries are the future of new energy vehicles?

In recent years, new energy vehicles have developed very rapidly, especially under the influence of carbon emission targets. Countries around the world are actively promoting the development of new energy. Many countries have even listed plans to eliminate fuel vehicles. In the future, it will be an inevitable trend for new energy vehicles to replace traditional fuel vehicles. As the most important component in new energy vehicles, the battery has also attracted the attention of enterprises and consumers.

On the one hand, consumers hope that the battery life of new energy vehicles will be significantly improved, and on the other hand, they also hope that battery technology can ensure sufficient safety. In this context, the emergence of solid-state batteries has given the public a new expectation. Toyota, the dominant player in the era of fuel vehicles, is also developing solid-state batteries. Recently, Toyota announced that it will introduce high-performance solid-state batteries and other technologies to improve range and performance and reduce the cost of its electric vehicles .

01

What is a solid-state battery?

In the power battery market, liquid lithium batteries currently dominate the world. Solid-state batteries are considered by many in the industry to be a disruptive next-generation power battery and are expected to become the mainstream of new energy vehicle development in the future. There are even predictions in the market: “The day when solid-state batteries become popular, that’s when fuel vehicles will withdraw from the stage of history.”

So are the current lithium batteries not easy to use? The development of batteries has a history of nearly two hundred years. As the most common lithium-ion battery in electric vehicles today , its high operating voltage, fast charge and discharge characteristics, long cycle life, no memory effect and many other advantages make it widely used in electric vehicles. reasons for digital products and electric vehicles. But at the same time, there are obstacles that are difficult to overcome: battery structural characteristics limit battery performance, which is also the fundamental reason for battery aging and safety hazards.

In order to solve the above-mentioned hidden dangers, battery companies generally choose the progressive development route of "from liquid to semi-solid to solid". Among them, semi-solid batteries have started to be installed in small batches this year. Due to many technical difficulties and cost issues, all-solid-state batteries are still in the accelerated research and development stage, and industry insiders predict that they will not be commercialized until 2030.

Judging from the current situation, the energy density of liquid batteries is close to the theoretical limit, so the development of solid-state batteries is the only way for technological innovation in the lithium battery industry. Compared with existing liquid batteries, solid-state batteries are a fully upgraded next-generation super battery. The most notable feature of solid-state batteries is their ultra-high energy density and ultra-high safety performance. Industry estimates indicate that the upper limit of energy density of liquid lithium batteries is 350Wh/kg, while the upper limit of energy density of semi-solid batteries is more than 350Wh/kg. All-solid-state batteries eliminate the electrolyte and use a polymer/oxide/sulfide system as the solid electrolyte. The energy density can reach more than 500Wh/kg.

02

Major manufacturers are vying to be the first to deploy

In the field of semi-solid-state batteries, several battery manufacturers have mass production capabilities, including Tailan New Energy, Weilan New Energy, etc. In 2023, car companies such as NIO, SAIC, Dongfeng and Thalys will successively launch semi-solid models with a cruising range of more than 1,000 kilometers.

In view of the good development prospects of solid-state batteries, many domestic and foreign car companies and lithium battery companies are actively investing in research and development, and some companies have made significant progress. In terms of battery manufacturers, battery manufacturers represented by CATL , Ganfeng Lithium Industry , Funeng Technology , etc. are actively promoting related industrialization layout.

In April this year, CATL released a semi-solid battery, a condensed matter battery, with a single energy density of up to 500Wh/kg. Condensed matter batteries will have mass production capabilities within this year, but the cost of the batteries is relatively high. In terms of solid-state batteries, CATL is still in the exploratory stage. Ganfeng Lithium Industry also stated in May this year that the company's first-generation solid-state battery has begun mass production, and the energy density can reach more than 260Wh/kg. In addition, the energy density of the company's second-generation hybrid solid-state lithium battery can reach more than 400Wh/Kg, and the cycle performance of the research and development sample battery has met the requirements of car companies. Funeng Technology stated in May this year that the company will accelerate the research and development and industrialization process of solid-state batteries. Currently, the first-generation semi-solid-state batteries independently developed have been successfully mass-produced and installed on vehicles.

At the same time, some vehicle manufacturers are also investing in the research and development of solid-state batteries. Typical representatives are SAIC, BYD , Dongfeng Motor and other manufacturers. SAIC Group released a three-year action plan for new energy vehicles in April this year, promoting the implementation of "100,000-unit" large-scale mass production of solid-state battery technology by 2025. Recently, SAIC has also invested no more than 2.7 billion yuan in solid-state battery developer Qingtao Energy to deepen its layout of solid-state battery technology. Dongfeng Motor said in April this year that the company had completed the research and development of a new generation of high-specific-energy solid-state batteries with an energy density of up to 405Wh/kg. It will be installed in vehicles in 2024. After being installed in the entire vehicle, it can support The vehicle has a driving range of over 1,000 kilometers.

03

Toyota continues to bet on overtaking in the electric car era?

Although Toyota joins other Japanese car companies in resisting full electrification, it has to speed up its transition to new energy sources. Recently, Toyota announced a series of new technologies at a technical briefing held in Japan, including electrification, intelligence, diversification and other aspects, aiming to show Toyota's vision and specific plans to the outside world.

Regarding the currently hottest solid-state batteries, Toyota stated at the meeting that the company is currently developing a mass production method and strives to achieve commercialization from 2027 to 2028.

In terms of performance, thanks to the better energy characteristics of solid-state batteries, Toyota's goal for solid-state batteries is to reduce fast charging to 10 minutes, and at the same time increase the cruising range by 50% compared to higher-performance batteries. On the specific timetable, Toyota plans to achieve small-scale mass production of all-solid-state batteries by 2025, and first install them on hybrid models; to achieve continuous and stable production by 2030.

In the fierce competition in the new energy vehicle market, automobile manufacturers must control costs if they want to survive, otherwise they may be eliminated from the market at any time. Especially when disruptors like Tesla repeatedly cut prices, many car manufacturers are forced to follow the price cuts, otherwise they will lose market share at any time.

Against this background, many car manufacturers simply have no motivation to develop solid-state batteries, let alone spend a lot of money to equip them with solid-state batteries. This is also an important reason why solid-state batteries are tepid.

However, in the future, with the continuous breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology and the continuous decline in the production cost of solid-state batteries, it is inevitable that solid-state batteries will replace liquid batteries and become the mainstream trend in the future. Just like Toyota, although it has repeatedly resisted the electrification of cars, it has to vigorously develop new energy-related technologies to avoid being eliminated by the market. Therefore, whoever can take the lead in solid-state batteries will have an advantage in the future competition in the new energy vehicle market and gain the opportunity to overtake in corners.

04

Summarize

From a market perspective, solid-state batteries have broad application prospects in electric vehicles, mobile charging equipment and other fields. However, due to high cost and price, there is a risk that the progress of downstream applications will be lower than expected. In addition, the commercialization process of solid-state batteries also faces uncertainties in policies, regulations and other aspects, and policy guidance and support need to be strengthened.

But what is certain is that as the future development direction, the commercialization of solid-state batteries will definitely affect the hearts of consumers, and once the time comes, the manufacturers that take the lead will undoubtedly occupy a huge first-mover advantage.