Why will this kind of battery cover about 65% of the market demand for electric vehicles?

The industrialization process of sodium-ion batteries has attracted much attention, but some industry experts have reminded us to pay attention to the current industrial status and technical bottlenecks such as low energy density, short cycle life, and small space for cost reduction; at the same time, some pioneers have shown their industry technology progress schedule.

Recently, Huang Qisen, deputy director of CATL Research Institute, stated that in terms of passenger car applications, sodium-ion batteries can generally meet the needs of models with a range of less than 400 kilometers. According to reports, CATL has used its first AB hybrid battery system integration technology to achieve a mix of sodium and lithium, complementing each other's advantages, further improving the energy density of the battery system, and expanding the application of sodium-ion batteries to models with a range of 500 kilometers. Models within this range account for about 65% of the market share, and their application prospects are very broad.

This data on the proportion of vehicle models is close to the relevant statistics of the Power Battery Application Branch of the China Physical and Chemical Power Supply Industry Association.

From the perspective of domestic electric vehicle production and sales, data from the Power Battery Application Branch shows that from January to October 2022, the domestic production of models with a range of less than 400 kilometers accounted for 30.44% of the electric vehicle market, and models with a range of less than 500 kilometers accounted for 62.78%; the sales ratio is also basically the same Maintaining the same frequency, sales of models with a range of 400 kilometers and less than 500 kilometers accounted for 29.61% and 65.54% respectively.

The sales ranking of models during the same period is as follows:

This means that, on the one hand, as the energy density of sodium-ion batteries increases, its application scenarios are not only expected to expand from the fields of energy storage and low-speed electric vehicles to the field of passenger cars, but also if it can gradually cover 400 kilometers of range models to meet the needs of 500 kilometers, If the demand for models with a kilometer range is high, the market space for its application in the field of electric vehicles can surge from one-third to about two-thirds. This has also triggered great imagination in the industry about the scale of the sodium-ion battery industry.

On the other hand, models with a range of less than 400 kilometers have a wide audience. Currently, sodium-ion batteries have begun to accelerate their deployment in this field, and competition with lithium-ion batteries will inevitably begin in the future.

It is worth noting that there are recent media reports that BYD’s pure electric mini car Seagull, which is currently undergoing road testing, may be the first to be equipped with a sodium-ion battery. The new car is expected to be launched in the second quarter of 2023, and the sodium-ion/lithium-ion battery version is expected to be priced The prices are 60,000 yuan/80,000 yuan respectively, and the cruising range is 300 kilometers/400 kilometers respectively.

Although BYD has denied this, the news still raises the industry's expectations for the application of sodium-ion batteries in low-endurance models.

In the range of 400 kilometers to 500 kilometers, the top-selling models include BYD? Dolphin, BYD? Mainstream popular models such as Qin Pro. According to Huang Qisen's prediction, if sodium-ion batteries achieve technological breakthroughs in the future, they will have the opportunity to hit 500 kilometers of battery life, and the market potential will be further expanded. Whether sodium-ion batteries can achieve the application breakthroughs predicted above depends on the improvement of its core indicators.

Looking at the energy density improvement trend of sodium-ion batteries, it is reported that the first-generation sodium-ion battery product released by CATL in 2021 has an energy density of 160Wh/kg, and its second-generation product energy density will reach 200Wh/kg, combined with the AB hybrid battery system Integrated technology will also further increase the energy density of the battery system.

As an early company in the field of sodium-ion batteries, Zhongke Haina also revealed their technology research and development progress.

Li Shujun, general manager of Hainan Zhongke, said recently that the mass energy density of different battery product shapes and structures is quite different. At the same time, in the field of energy storage, volumetric energy density is more important and more effective. He used volumetric energy density as a comparison and pointed out , the volumetric energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is about 360 Wh/L, and the volumetric energy density of Zhongke Hainan sodium-ion batteries currently reaches 280 Wh/L.

According to reports, Zhongke Haina plans to increase the volumetric energy density of sodium-ion batteries to 330 Wh/L by 2023. In 2024, it will further achieve a volumetric energy density equivalent to the current lithium iron phosphate battery, and will exceed this level in the future.

In terms of cycle life, he said that the current sodium-ion battery has a cycle life of about 3,000-4,000 times. With the mass production of materials and batteries, the stability and impurity content of materials and batteries will be effectively improved. It is expected that the cycle life of sodium-ion batteries will increase to 6,000 times by 2023, and will gradually increase to 8,000 times or even 10,000 times thereafter. Second-rate.

But at the same time, he also pointed out that the improvement of cycle life and energy density of sodium-ion batteries are not completely synchronized. Generally speaking, the cycle life of batteries with high energy density will be lower, and the energy density of batteries with high cycle life will also be slightly lower.

In fact, in addition to energy density and cycle life, there are also some pain points that affect the industrialization process of sodium-ion batteries. Huang Qisen of Ningde Times said that because there are big differences between sodium-ion batteries and lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries need to develop new methods and establish new standards. They need to consider multiple aspects in terms of materials and components, manufacturing and testing, and product applications. Dimensions unfold and delve deeper.

Overall, with the gradual improvement of the sodium-ion battery industry chain, the improvement of technology maturity and scale effects, and the absence of supply bottlenecks on the raw material side, battery costs are expected to be reduced after large-scale mass production, which will create favorable conditions for the promotion of sodium-ion batteries. .

Facing the first year of sodium-ion batteries in 2023, CATL has revealed that its sodium-ion batteries have negotiated with some passenger car customers and will be officially mass-produced next year. Zhongke Haina established a 1GWh sodium-ion battery production line in Fuyang, Anhui Province in September this year. It is currently in trial production and plans to expand production to 3GWh-5GWh by 2023 and exceed 10GWh by 2024. Product models will also be richer.

Recently, Funeng Technology also stated that its sodium-ion battery products are in the centralized sample delivery stage. The products have met the needs of A0-class vehicles and plan to fully enter the industrialization stage in 2023. Currently, they have cooperated with many well-known two-wheel vehicle companies. Carry out in-depth cooperation with passenger car companies and aim to meet the demand for A-class cars by 2024.

The industry is waiting to see whether sodium-ion batteries will enter the industrial application stage.