Why does the battery swap model exist?
First, the battery cost is high. The cost of electronics accounts for a very high proportion of the vehicle cost, even accounting for 1/3 of the vehicle price. Therefore, after battery replacement, the user's purchase cost can be reduced through battery leasing.
Second, the battery life, especially the battery attenuation, will become shorter and shorter with the increase of years of use. Therefore, the battery will break down before the vehicle breaks down.
Third, the charging speed is slow. The fastest fast charging technology on the market currently takes 20 to 30 minutes to charge to about 80%, while battery replacement only takes five or six minutes.
The first of the three problems mentioned above is the high cost of batteries. As long as large-scale mass production is carried out in the future, the cost can be reduced. The second problem is the service life of batteries. Now the service life of batteries has been significantly improved, reaching 500,000 to 600,000 kilometers or even longer. It is guaranteed that even if the vehicle breaks down, the battery will not break down.
So the last problem facing battery suppliers is the slow charging speed. If this problem can be solved, I think the battery swap model will really no longer exist.
A few days ago, CATL released the latest Kirin battery, which released a series of shocking data. For example, the system energy density reaches 255wh/kg, the volume utilization rate reaches 72%, which can help electric vehicles achieve a range of 1000km+, and can be charged to 80% in 10 minutes. If it is really possible to charge 80% in 10 minutes, then battery replacement will be even more meaningless. Because the speed of battery replacement and charging is almost the same.
However, developing it is one thing, and mass production at a low cost is another. At present, CATL Kirin batteries have several problems in promotion.
First of all, the 4C fast charging performance promoted by CATL is said to charge up to 80% in 10 minutes. However, it requires the cooperation of the vehicle electrification platform and the charging piles, so if you want to really achieve 80% power in 10 minutes and want to popularize it on a large scale, it is quite difficult.
Secondly, CATL compared the Kirin battery with the Tesla 4680 battery. The Kirin battery has 13% more power than the Tesla 4680 battery, and the energy density can reach 255Wh/kg, while the energy density of the Tesla 4680 battery is about 217Wh/kg. It can be said that it is ahead of Tesla in all aspects. As we all know, the Tesla battery was released in 2020 and has now been mass-produced. The Kirin battery has just been released and has not yet been mass-produced. So it is not surprising that it is more advanced than the Tesla battery.
Third, Kirin battery solves the problem of fast charging and 1,000 km range, but does not mention how to reduce costs. In fact, it can be imagined that the cost of such batteries is not low. Therefore, in the early stage of promotion, it will only be used in expensive models of luxury brands. As for when the cost will drop to the point where ordinary people can afford it, there is still a question mark.
But no matter what, the upgrading of battery technology has positive significance for the development of the automobile industry. Moreover, the innovation of battery technology will also be a subversion of the existing business model. If Kirin batteries can really achieve 80% power in 10 minutes and a range of 1,000 kilometers, then the era of battery replacement will really come to an end.
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