4G Lost: Operators Playing a Three Kingdoms Game

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Core message: China Unicom has announced the commercial use of 4G in a high-profile manner. After waiting for several months, the choice of 4G is finally available. It also means that after the Chinese government issued three TDD LTE licenses last year, the three major operators have begun the pace of 4G commercialization. So, what changes will these three major operators have in their 4G strategies in the future? Here is a brief analysis.

On March 18, China Unicom announced the commercial use of 4G. After waiting for several months, the choice of 4G is finally available. It also means that after the Chinese government issued three TDD LTE licenses last year, the three major operators have begun the pace of 4G commercialization. So, what changes will these three major operators have in their 4G strategies? Here is a brief analysis.

China Mobile: The battle

For China Mobile, developing 4G is undoubtedly a tough battle, which can be divided into three stages.

The first stage: the network battle, which is the so-called goal of building 500,000 base stations by 2014. This task is undoubtedly huge, requiring branches across the country to move forward in unison and cooperate with equipment suppliers, network construction, network optimization and other related industrial chains. The pressure may be the most difficult and greatest since the establishment of China Mobile, and this is also the key to determining whether this battle can be successful.

The second stage: the battle to attack the terminal. This part actually started last year and has been adjusted recently. It mainly focuses on the five-mode and ten-band terminals and the strong support of mainstream manufacturers. At the same time, it vigorously uses social channels to increase terminal sales and coverage groups.

The third stage: marketing battle, mainly through brand, advertising, tariffs, services, etc. to comprehensively improve China Mobile's poor network image during the 3G period, so that users can recognize and accept the superiority of China Mobile's 4G network (in their own words, it is called international mainstream, one step ahead). First, return some of China Mobile's high-end users who switched to China Unicom and China Telecom during the 3G period. Second, nearly 20 million China Mobile GSM users who hold China Unicom WCDMA phones will change their phones. Third, accelerate the migration of China Mobile's 2G/3G users to 4G. This work should be carried out in a large scale from the second quarter.

China Unicom: Defense War

China Unicom officially launched LTE for commercial use on March 18 and launched an integrated strategy. The premise of this strategy is that 3G coverage is good and the network is evolving to DC-HSPA, which is also a mature strategy in many European and American countries. For China Unicom, the transitional stage before obtaining the FDD LTE license is mainly a battle of defense.

The main purpose is to protect the high-end users that China Mobile and China Telecom previously tapped through 3G, so that they will not return under China Mobile's powerful 4G offensive. The second is to further consolidate its advantages in the 3G era, extend the vitality of 3G and eliminate the poor performance of the early LTE network.

The battle to defend China Unicom also had three major battles.

Phase 1: Network upgrade. China Unicom's primary task is to further upgrade the existing 3G network to 42M and further improve network coverage. There is nothing special about this, it is just fast. In terms of LTE, we will increase the preparation for FDD LTE network construction and build test networks in a few areas under the condition of integrated networking. Of course, the biggest problem is money, so the scale will not be large.

Phase 2: Terminal upgrade war. It is not difficult for China Unicom to upgrade its network to 42M, but there do not seem to be many 42M terminals. And getting a 4-mode LTE 4G 42M3G GSM is no easier than getting a 5-mode one. Therefore, China Unicom still has to work hard on the terminal level.

The third stage: the war of confusing concepts. The biggest problem of China Unicom at this stage is that it is impossible to advance 3G/4G in parallel due to limited funds, especially when it still has a TDD LTE license. Therefore, China Unicom's integrated strategy is both accidental and inevitable. Confusion of concepts will paralyze users. This is just like the past few months, China Unicom has been shouting on the radio all day long, "Choose Wo for 4G". If this strategy is done well, many users will continue to stay on China Unicom. Wait for FDD LTE to be licensed before attacking again. At the same time, the tariff can also be bundled with 3G tariffs, which is similar to China Unicom's strategy in the 2G and 3G periods. On the basis of 3G packages, a slight increase in fees can bring a large increase in traffic, which is very sticky for users. It can also further attract mobile users to switch networks. After all, China Mobile's promotion of five-mode mobile phones is a great benefit to China Unicom.

China Telecom: Sparrow Wars

Although China Telecom is the second operator to announce the commercial use of 4G, it is obvious that it lacks confidence. Therefore, it has developed various wireless access products (data cards, CPE, etc.) to cope with the situation. The reason is very simple. From the chairman to the grassroots employees, no one in China Telecom is willing to develop TDD LTE. Although it has obtained the license, it is just a show. So, what strategy should be adopted at this time?

I think the most suitable strategy is sparrow warfare, also known as guerrilla warfare. I think this strategy also has three stages.

The first stage: strategic weakness. This actually started after the license was obtained last year. For example, the number of new users dropped sharply, and it was announced that under the strong 4G offensive of China Mobile, users were no longer willing to choose China Telecom CDMA. There are two benefits of weakness. First, it can make the competent authorities feel reluctant and issue FDD LTE licenses as soon as possible. Second, it can make China Mobile and China Unicom relax their vigilance, ignore you, and not pay attention to you, so as to accumulate strength and wait for an opportunity to counterattack.

The second stage: strategic disruption. In a sense, China Telecom does not have a network advantage now. In the mature market, it is hopeless to add new users and lack of user digging. Strategic protection and strategic disruption are very important. In terms of strategic protection, it hopes that 4G will not be too attractive in the short term. At the same time, it launches its own 4G network to tell users that Tianyi also has 4G. In terms of strategic disruption, for example, it can disrupt the situation by lowering the 4G traffic rate and lowering the rates of the other two companies. Of course, at this stage, except for the price war, China Telecom really has few leverages to disrupt the situation.

The third stage: a covert move. Since China Telecom has no intention of developing TDD LTE, and since it has done enough superficial work, the next stage is to serve 3G users well, promote 4G well, and put all its energy into the construction of a converged network based on FDD LTE. It is difficult to disclose the specific progress of China Telecom at present, but what I want to tell you is that you should never underestimate the strong heart of China Telecom Xiaochu and the execution ability of China Telecom, the oldest Chinese operator!

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