Research on the impact of Nvidia's acquisition of Arm
Latest update time：2021-06-13
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Who can stop Huang Renxun's madness?
Introduction: There is a river in the village, and the villagers use the river water for washing, irrigation, drinking, etc. One day, a wealthy man named Huang came to the village and spent a huge amount of money to buy the ownership of the river, and promised that the river would continue to remain open and neutral for the villagers to continue to use it daily. However, the villagers are worried that the river reconstruction, river water adulteration, disguised river water charges and other issues will affect the quality and quantity of the villagers' water source. The fate of the river is linked to the fate of the villagers, and is firmly held in the hands of Mr. Huang.
Nvidia's acquisition of Arm has a huge and extremely negative impact on the global semiconductor industry, especially the Chinese semiconductor industry.
However, the most
dangerous
place is the safest. When everyone thinks that the acquisition will eventually fail, it is likely to be completed.
This is exactly what the Chinese industry is most worried about.
Like TSMC, Arm has formed a stable and huge industrial chain by virtue of its openness and neutrality. Such openness and neutrality are the foundation of the enterprise and the industry, and have an important and far-reaching impact on China's semiconductor industry. Since Arm entered China in 2002 and established the Arm China joint venture in 2018, it has been promoting the upgrading of China's chip industry. Official data show that as of last year, Arm has more than 200 partners in China, and the chip shipments of Chinese customers using Arm technology have reached about 20 billion, an increase of nearly 200 times in the past 10 years. If this transaction with the highest acquisition amount in semiconductor history is successful, the industrial impact caused by it is even more disturbing.
In order to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of Nvidia's acquisition of Arm
on the industry and related institutions, Strategy Analytics has conducted corporate visits, academic interviews and institutional surveys for several consecutive months.
In combination with the analysis of Strategy Analytics' think tank, we have fully investigated the
views
, analyzed the impact on the industry, and based on this, we have made our judgment.
Contents of this article:
1. The charm of Arm
2. Nvidia’s ambition
3. Terrible acquisition
4. Comprehensive consideration and careful judgment
Arm’s charm
Nvidia officially announced the acquisition of Arm, and the acquisition price of $40 billion is unprecedented in the semiconductor industry. This acquisition, which Huang Renxun called "the only opportunity in a lifetime", is full of dangerous signals in the eyes of Arm co-founder Hermann Hauser. Hermann Hauser publicly stated that this acquisition will destroy Arm's business model, push Arm's ecological partners - most of which are Nvidia's competitors - to a dangerous cliff, and even affect national economic sovereignty. Technology companies such as Google, Microsoft, Qualcomm and Apple have also expressed their opposition through public channels.
Huang Renxun doesn't seem to care. On the one hand, he claims that he will continue to maintain Arm's open licensing model, maintain global customer neutrality, continue to retain the Arm name, keep Arm's headquarters in Cambridge, UK, and establish a new global center of excellence in artificial intelligence in the UK; on the other hand, he is dreaming the same dream as Masayoshi Son, who was called "the most powerful man in Silicon Valley" by foreign media a few years ago.
Arm's revenue in fiscal year 2019 was $1.898 billion, and its net profit was less than $300 million. Huang Renxun waved his hand and it was $40 billion. The difference between the net profit and the acquisition amount is more than 100 times, which is not rational at all in the eyes of ordinary people . In 2016, SoftBank acquired Arm for $32 billion, a premium of 43%. What do these gamblers who use super high premiums see in Arm? Does Huang Renxun have more far-reaching plans under his irrational decision?
At present, Arm's business model is IP licensing, that is, through the way of intellectual property licensing, it charges a one-time technology licensing fee and royalties. Arm only focuses on designing chip blueprints, and the foundry or production is handled by the authorized customers themselves. Arm's revenue includes upfront licensing fees (license) and royalties (Royalty), of which the royalties are charged in proportion to the shipment volume of chips using Arm.
Arm's business model (Source: Arm official website)
This business model is the secret of Arm's rapid growth. Arm has formed a good cooperative relationship with chip design giants and relied on the power of chip companies to drive its own development and achieve win-win cooperation. The
latest report officially released by Arm shows that in the fourth quarter of 2020 alone, global shipments of chips based on Arm IP reached a record 6.7 billion, surpassing the total shipments of other architecture chips such as X86, ARC, Power and MIPS.
As of February 2021, Arm partners have delivered more than 180 billion chips based on Arm IP.
Arm's IP has a very strong leverage effect, with nearly US$2 billion in revenue a year, leveraging the global chip design industry value of more than US$100 billion.
Number of chips using Arm IP (Source: Arm official website)
Data from Arm's official website shows that the Arm ecosystem continues to grow, with Arm partners signing a record 175 new licenses in 2020, bringing the total number of licenses to 1,910 and the number of licensees to 530.
Arm customer ecosystem (Source: NVIDIA)
As shown in the above figure, Arm, which is open and neutral, has an ecosystem that includes the world's top technology giants. At the same time, China's semiconductor industry is even more dependent on Arm.
According to official data, Arm has more than 200 partners in China (only for customers who have signed direct contracts), almost covering China's top design companies. The number of chips shipped to Chinese customers using Arm technology has reached about 20 billion, an increase of nearly 200 times in the past 10 years
.
According to estimates by Strategy Analytics, Arm supports China's chip revenue of more than US$20 billion through Arm China. If
we dig deeper into the downstream terminals, the scale is difficult to estimate.
In the field of mobile phones, Arm controls the lifeline and almost monopolizes the mobile phone processor market.
If Nvidia changes the IP model after acquiring Arm, it will directly affect Chinese mobile phone chip manufacturers, and a number of Chinese mobile phone manufacturers will also be indirectly affected.
Now many domestic mobile phone manufacturers are trying to make chips, and their dependence on Arm will be more serious.
In the data center field
, companies such as Feiteng and Huawei HiSilicon have permanently licensed the Arm instruction set and expanded and transformed it. At present, Arm is in its infancy in the data center market and has certain potential. For example, Nvidia has successfully acquired Arm and officially confirmed that it will focus on the data center field after the acquisition, which will have a great impact on the pioneering and innovation of Chinese chip companies in the server field.
In the automotive field
, world-renowned semiconductor companies such as Infineon, NXP, STMicroelectronics, TI, ON Semiconductor, and Renesas Electronics have a large say in the automotive processing chip market. These leading semiconductor companies account for more than 90% of the Chinese automotive semiconductor market, while the market share of domestic chip companies is negligible. Almost all of them have adopted Arm's IP license.
If Nvidia successfully acquires Arm, most of the domestic automotive chip market will be subject to the United States, which will inevitably increase the risk of China's automotive chip supply interruption.
In the field of Internet of Things
, Arm plays a vital role. If Nvidia successfully acquires Arm, Chinese IoT chip companies such as Huawei, SinoWise, GigaDevice and other companies will be subject to potential restrictions and may increase their use of RISC-V architecture as an alternative. However, the RISC-V architecture ecosystem has not been able to compete with Arm, and the gap is quite large.
In summary, Arm has already had absolute say in the fields of smartphones, the Internet of Things, and automobiles. In the explosive AI field, Arm is also growing rapidly. Everything related to Arm's dream has already appeared on Masayoshi Son's PPT during the SoftBank era. In Huang Renxun's view, the construction of Nvidia's future empire cannot be separated from Arm, even if the whole world opposes it.
Nvidia's ambitions
SoftBank is a holding company in the Japanese telecommunications and media industries. Nvidia is completely different in nature. This semiconductor company, which mainly designs and sells GPUs, is in direct competition with many Arm customers. Therefore, SoftBank was able to complete due diligence within two weeks for the acquisition of Arm. Nvidia said in a statement that it hopes the transaction can be completed around March 2022.
The process requires approval from multiple jurisdictions, including the UK, China, the US and the EU.
This is a deal that is opposed by almost all the global industry ecosystem. Arm co-founder Hermann Hauser publicly expressed his opposition shortly after Nvidia’s official announcement. Hermann Hauser believes that this is not only a matter of neutrality being destroyed, but also affects national economic sovereignty. Since then, technology companies such as Google, Microsoft, Qualcomm and Apple have also expressed their opposition through public channels.
Nvidia has also promised that after the acquisition is successful, it will continue to maintain Arm's open licensing model, maintain neutrality for global customers, continue to retain the Arm name, and keep Arm's headquarters in Cambridge, UK, and establish a new global center of excellence in artificial intelligence in the UK. However, the words of businessmen are usually weighed after weighing the pros and cons, and it is difficult to be recognized by the industry.
In the visits and surveys of Strategy Analytics, the neutral rhetoric was not accepted by domestic companies and scholars at all. Using $40
billion
to buy a company with an annual revenue of about $2
billion
, and wanting to monopolize an open and neutral platform, such a thing is worrying.
Last year, Huang Renxun publicly described his vision for a "new chip empire" after acquiring Arm - pushing his AI strategy to a new level, especially opening up the vast cloud computing market. In official statements to the outside world, the market directions targeted after the merger are mainly reflected in the following aspects:
1.
Expand
AI computing globally:
With the help of Arm's vast ecosystem, NVIDIA will bring its GPU and AI technologies to large end markets including mobile devices and personal computers;
2.
Accelerate
the development of data centers, edge computing, and the Internet of Things:
Nvidia and Arm will significantly increase their R&D efforts to enhance the growth trajectory of these three areas;
3.
Enhance
innovation capabilities:
NVIDIA and Arm will innovate in the three major processor areas (CPU, DPU and GPU), providing alternative CPU architecture options besides X86;
4.
Optimize
energy efficiency:
NVIDIA and Arm will work to further optimize energy efficiency for future development;
5.
Open model:
NVIDIA will maintain Arm's open licensing model to serve customers in various industries around the world, and will use NVIDIA's IP to further enrich Arm's product portfolio and provide a wider range of products to all customers
.
Looking around the world, Arm is Nvidia's Thor's hammer that breaks the boundaries of GPUs. On March 31, 2021, Arm announced the launch of the new Armv9 architecture. The press release stated that Armv9 meets the global market's demand for increasingly powerful security, artificial intelligence, and ubiquitous dedicated processing.
12 days later, Nvidia released its first data center CPU based on the Arm architecture. According to Nvidia, the processor is called "Grace" and is designed for applications including artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. It can solve the channel bottleneck between the processor and memory faced by the current mainstream X86 platform. Grace is expected to be shipped in 2023.
Nvidia, whose market value is constantly expanding due to the explosion of AI, is like a wild horse that has been freed from its shackles, running wildly in the world of its own conception. Different from Nvidia's description, Strategy Analytics found through field visits and think tank analysis that once Nvidia successfully acquires Arm, it will cause the following "seven sins":
1.
It
will
destroy
the openness
of Arm
.
Openness is the foundation of Arm's business model. With openness, Arm has established a strong ecosystem. Nvidia's acquisition of Arm will frustrate openness. The global industry chain, especially the Chinese industry chain, will not be able to obtain continuous and stable technology authorization from Arm, which will have a great impact on the industry.
2. Undermine Arm’s
neutrality.
Arm is a European company that is positioned as the “Switzerland” of the semiconductor industry. Nvidia spent $40 billion to acquire this company with an annual revenue of about $2 billion. Arm’s future development focus will be biased towards American companies. Due to the strong technological competition between China and the United States, Arm’s neutrality will be undermined.
3.
Arm
becomes an American company.
After Nvidia's acquisition, Arm's decision-making will be subject to an American company, making the Chinese Arm ecosystem a bargaining chip in the political wind, and the impact on the Chinese industry will be more serious and far-reaching. The Chinese Arm ecosystem has to adopt immature backup plans. Under the mature Arm ecosystem, the backup plan has a long way to go and cannot form a complete replacement.
4.
Create
a new monopoly.
Nvidia will use Arm's huge ecosystem and technology reserves to import Nvidia's IP technology to further form new solutions. The new solutions will also be in a near or even complete monopoly position in new fields, breaking the original plans of industry companies in the fields of data centers and artificial intelligence and undermining fairness.
5.
Changes
in the computing market.
The integration of NVIDIA and Arm technology can form new chip-level products, which will pose a greater threat to existing market architectures such as X86, thus leading to changes in the data-centric market.
6.
Arm
caters to Nvidia's development.
After the merger, Arm's strategic direction will be in line with Nvidia's strategic planning, and the company's investment in Arm IP may be relatively weakened, resulting in a slowdown in the innovation speed of companies in the Arm ecosystem. If Arm becomes a vassal of a certain superpower, prioritizes the interests of certain giants, and interferes with market competition in the mobile field, then Arm will sooner or later lose its current industry influence.
7.
The development
of
Arm customers is limited.
In particular, a group of players who are both Nvidia's competitors and Arm customers will be limited by Nvidia's decisions and survive in the cracks. How Arm should serve these customers will become a problem that Arm has to rethink.
Terrible takeover
Nvidia's acquisition of Arm has a far-reaching impact. Strategy Analytics interviewed 53 corporate executives/technical personnel, industry experts, and institutional/think tank analysts. Four respondents were neutral, 49 were clearly opposed, and no company or individual clearly supported it.
Because SoftBank and Nvidia are both capital giants, industry insiders are very worried that they will use chips to exchange for support. It is heard that Nvidia has already started to prepare for the acquisition of Arm.
Data source: Strategy Analytics
After visits and surveys by Xinmou Research, the views of the respondents are summarized as follows:
Almost all respondents believe that the chances of Nvidia successfully acquiring Arm are very low.
A
chip company acquiring a third-party open technology licensing platform will destroy Arm's biggest advantage. But in February 2021, Nvidia talked about the acquisition of Arm at its earnings conference and said it had made good progress. Huang Renxun's cautious approach is in stark contrast to the general lack of vigilance among industry insiders.
Destroy Arm's openness and business model.
The open business model is the key to Arm's success. Once destroyed, it will affect the entire Arm-related industry chain.
Technical experts from the IC design teams of well-known mobile phone brands, direct competitors of the Arm architecture, technical experts from manufacturers, and key R&D personnel from internationally renowned IC design manufacturers all believe that destroying openness is inevitable and inconsistent with Huang Renxun's promise.
Openness has become a paradox in this acquisition. Nvidia acquired Arm, which has a revenue of about 2 billion US dollars, for US$40 billion. The future development of technology focus and strategy will lean towards Nvidia, reducing support for Arm customers. In addition, in the future development of CPUs, GPUs, and data centers, Nvidia may put the parts that are beneficial to itself into external authorization, allowing Arm's neutrality and openness to serve Nvidia, and Arm's customers will become extremely passive.
Impact on the development of Chinese industry.
As Arm occupies a pivotal position in the Chinese processor market and has penetrated into many fields such as mobile phones, PCs, automobiles, and the Internet of Things, if Arm technology is restricted, companies in these fields will be greatly affected. In the fields of cloud gaming and high-end servers, the Chinese market has huge potential. After the merger of Nvidia and Arm, they will definitely tap into such markets, resulting in the compression of the living space of related domestic solutions.
Experts generally believe that this is an acquisition case that will inevitably lead to monopoly, and it will have a greater impact on Chinese integrated circuit companies, especially emerging Chinese companies.
Affects supply chain security.
Arm was acquired by a company that mainly sells chips, and IP supply may be cut off at any time. Even if Nvidia currently promises to keep the Arm licensing model unchanged, and even gives Arm customers certain discounts to gain everyone's support,
Nvidia will maintain the status quo in the short term, but in the long run, Nvidia will adopt a price increase strategy to recover the $40 billion spent on the acquisition.
The open ecosystem established by a third-party platform, the companies in the ecosystem have become fish on the chopping board because of the acquisition of Arm. In addition, Arm technology has penetrated so widely that even manufacturing companies will use Arm IP in the early process verification. If Nvidia successfully acquires Arm, the technology and market strategies of Arm-related companies will be spied on by Nvidia at a glance, so how can it be safe?
Impact on national
industry and economic
security.
If Arm is acquired by Nvidia, it will become an American company. According to the current US idea of maintaining "world hegemony" and its policy of suppressing China, the US is bound to increase export controls on core components related to mobile phones such as Huawei. Assuming that
the US holds the lifeline of the Arm industry chain including China and other countries, it can implement embargoes, price increases and other strategies to increase its voice in science and technology. When the US negotiates with China, the licensing of Arm technology will become a bargaining chip, which will have a great impact on the entire Chinese Arm industry chain companies and national security.
Not only China, but also the US semiconductor power thinking runs through the entire semiconductor history, regardless of national boundaries. At the same time, the world is responding and planning to the semiconductor industry, improving the confidence of its own semiconductor supply chain, while also preventing the suppression of the US power policy.
Suspected of market monopoly.
Nvidia's acquisition of Arm will have a monopoly effect in many fields. For example, in the data center, Nvidia will use Arm's huge ecosystem and technical reserves to import Nvidia's IP technology and further form new solutions. Due to the monopoly position of Nvidia and Arm in their respective fields, the new solutions will also be in a near or even complete monopoly position in the new field. If Nvidia's acquisition of Arm is not opposed in time, Nvidia will touch the antitrust red line in some intelligent fields.
Provide development possibilities and space
for
architectures such as
RISC-V
.
Nvidia's acquisition of Arm is good for the development of RISC-V. On the one hand, due to political considerations, when Arm becomes an American company, there is a possibility that the use of technology will be restricted at any time, and RISC-V may become an alternative. On the other hand, in the long run, Nvidia's acquisition of Arm may change Arm's business model. Arm, which loses its neutral position, will reduce its own market competitiveness, and RISC-V will have the possibility and space to develop. However, due to the large gap between the current RISC-V technology and ecological construction and Arm, there are still variables in its development.
Arm customers' capabilities will be limited.
If Nvidia acquires Arm, the upgrade speed of the original Arm technology may slow down, and Arm will focus on Nvidia's strategic layout, which will be consistent with the official claim of "expanding AI computing globally; accelerating the development of data centers, edge computing and the Internet of Things; enhancing architectural innovation capabilities, etc.". In the future, the capabilities of Arm customers will be limited.
Nvidia has some bargaining chips
.
If Nvidia wants to make this acquisition a success, it may give up some of its profits to China as a bargaining chip in exchange for the approval of Chinese regulatory authorities. This bargaining chip may be a short-term concession to the company and an increase in investment in the region.
Consider comprehensively and make careful judgments
Nvidia's acquisition of Arm is not a simple M&A event. Due to the nature of the two companies and the current complex international situation, the interests involved in the acquisition are too far-reaching. Regardless of whether the acquisition is successful or not, we must remain highly vigilant and prepare for a rainy day. From the acquisition, we can see the development trend of the global semiconductor industry and use dynamic development ideas to set a far-reaching industrial development strategy.
Based on this, Xinmou Research recommends:
Comprehensive consideration and prudent judgment:
As a third-party platform company, Arm has built an industrial ecosystem through technology licensing. It has formed a complete ecological chain in China and has an irreplaceable position in many fields such as automobiles, the Internet of Things, and smartphones. Once Arm is acquired by the American company Nvidia, China's related industrial chain will fall into a passive position and be subject to Nvidia. In addition, Nvidia's acquisition of Arm will lead to monopoly development in the field of artificial intelligence in the future. From the perspective of destroying China's semiconductor industry chain and anti-monopoly, the relevant decision-makers should comprehensively consider the impact of the acquisition and make prudent judgments.
Establishment
Alternative plan
:
Nvidia's acquisition of Arm needs to pass antitrust approvals in various countries. To achieve this goal, Nvidia will promise certain conditions. These can be capital investment, technology commitments, and preferential treatment for enterprises. However, these may only be short-term effects. In the long run, assuming the acquisition is successful, Arm's focus will gradually shift to the parent company, which is not good for the industry chain.
In response to foreign companies' patent and ecological blockade of my country's processor IP cores and architectures, my country should establish an independent and controllable core technology industry ecosystem and actively integrate into the international industry ecosystem while establishing strategic alternatives. On the one hand, it should timely deploy processor architecture systems such as MIPS that have not yet formed an ecological monopoly, and on the other hand, it should promptly track and deploy open source architectures such as RISC-V that have attracted the attention of major international companies.
Pay attention to Arm licensing issues and promote local development:
The domestic industry chain needs to establish a relevant organization alliance and actively track the dynamics of Arm architecture neutrality and licensing. Although the latest Armv9 architecture is not subject to US export administration regulations, the issue of architecture licensing still exists. Arm's design team in Austin, Texas, has designed several high-performance architectures such as Cortex A57, A72, A76, and A77. Whether they will be subject to US technology control in the future remains in doubt, and China needs to remain highly vigilant.
Adjust countermeasures in a timely manner according to changes in the global semiconductor industry landscape
. From a series of acquisition and integration events in the global semiconductor field in the past two years, we can preliminarily analyze and judge the strategic plots of developed countries such as the United States in the semiconductor field, as well as their high vigilance against China's vigorous development of the semiconductor industry. China must pay close attention to the development trends of the semiconductor industry in the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea and other countries, and promote the construction of high-end semiconductor think tanks around the development trends of independent control of core chips and advanced technologies in the global semiconductor field, and give certain preference to funds, talents, and policy guarantees.
Actively open up and establish a semiconductor industry ecosystem of global cooperation
.
The semiconductor industry chain is a global industry chain. China's chip industry has always adhered to the principle of open development, actively utilized global resources, deepened international cooperation from multiple levels such as market, capital, technology, and talents, promoted open and innovative development, and actively and deeply integrated into the global industrial ecosystem. At the same time, support domestic competitive semiconductor companies and lay out China's semiconductor industry chain from a basic level.
Conclusion
SoftBank acquired Arm in 2016, and in 2020, it and Nvidia officially announced the change of ownership of Arm. Four years seemed like a lifetime to Masayoshi Son. Like Masayoshi Son, Huang Renxun is full of imagination about the future prospects of Arm. Unlike Masayoshi Son, Huang Renxun's Nvidia is not like SoftBank, which is outside the chip arena. The boss of this world-renowned IC design company has an ambition to dominate the technology industry, and such an ambition is dangerous. The formation of monopoly, the destruction of industrial security, and the loss of the original intention of openness and neutrality will become extremely difficult as the company develops. This article brings together the views of senior executives, experts, and think tank analysts of companies in the industry that are strongly related to Arm. I hope that readers will fully understand the interests of this acquisition that is still hanging in the air.
Under the game of great powers, everyone believes that this acquisition is not good for China's semiconductor industry, but they hold the mentality that "the acquisition will not and should not be passed". The so-called most dangerous place is the safest, as the poem says, "The rocks in Jingxi are dangerous and people are cautious, and no one has been overthrown all year round. On the contrary, in the flat stream without rocks, I often hear about ups and downs."
About Strategy Analytics:
ICwise is committed to becoming a world-class research institution rooted in China in the semiconductor and electronics industry. In April 2021, it won the "Special Industry Contribution Award" of the 20th Anniversary of the Shanghai Integrated Circuit Industry Association. Currently, ICwise has five major departments.
Data Research Department
: Based on the research team's in-depth understanding of the industry, through extensive contacts with the industry and comprehensive research, this department establishes a first-hand industry market database, and publishes authoritative market data, dynamic tracking and provides standard report products.
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: This department is positioned to serve enterprises and industries, and mainly provides customized research services and consulting services based on the personalized and specialized needs of customers.
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: This department provides global and domestic semiconductor industry research services, focusing on serving internationally renowned semiconductor companies, investment institutions and financial clients.
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: This department serves the central and local governments at all levels and relevant departments, commissions and bureaus, helping the government and enterprises to establish extensive exchanges and cooperation.
Research and Review Department
: Adhering to the principle of "seeking stability rather than speed, seeking precision rather than novelty, seeking depth rather than favor, seeking quality rather than quantity", we insist on original and in-depth content, from news to opinions, from phenomena to essence, from problems to solutions.
From 2015 to 2020, Xinmou Research has held six consecutive
Xinmou Research Integrated Circuit Industry Leaders Summits
, which have become one of the most influential industry summits in China. In 2021, Xinmou Research created the offline salon brand "I Say IC!", and is committed to becoming the most influential salon brand for IC people.
*Disclaimer: This article is originally written by the author. The content of the article is the author's personal opinion. Semiconductor Industry Observer reprints it only to convey a different point of view. It does not mean that Semiconductor Industry Observer agrees or supports this point of view. If you have any objections, please contact Semiconductor Industry Observer.
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