2021 will be very difficult for semiconductor companies
Latest update time：2021-09-02 03:11
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According to WSTS statistics, global semiconductor shipments in the first quarter of 2021 were US$123.1 billion, a 3.6% increase from the fourth quarter of 2020 and a 17.8% increase from the same period last year.
The quarterly increase was 3.6%, the highest quarterly increase since the first quarter of 2010. The strong growth in 1Q21 implies strong growth in the following quarters and in 2021. However, supply tightness could limit semiconductor growth in 2021.
The table below shows the revenues of the top 14 semiconductor companies in 1Q21, the change compared to 4Q20, and the revenue growth forecast for 2Q21 compared to 2Q21, if available.
Of the 12 companies reporting in 1Q21, three companies, Intel, Qualcomm, and STMicroelectronics, saw revenue declines from 4Q20. All three companies expect 2Q21 revenue to be down about 4% from 1Q21. Intel and Qualcomm said they were supply constrained. STMicroelectronics attributed the decline to seasonal trends.
All the remaining companies saw revenue growth, ranging from 2.4% for NXP Semiconductors to 12.1% for MediaTek. All of these companies expect revenue to increase in 2QFY21 compared to 1QFY21, ranging from 0.1% for NXP to about 14% for Micron Technology and MediaTek.
NXP cited supply constraints in its cautious outlook. So of the nine companies that provided guidance for 2Q21, four cited supply constraints.
How long will the semiconductor industry be subject to supply constraints? According to analyst forecasts, it may take two years to resolve all semiconductor shortages. CNBC quoted one analyst as saying that the shortage will not be resolved until 2023.
The CNBC article also cited a Gartner report that the shortage will continue for another six months. As we reported in our last newsletter, the automotive industry has been particularly hard hit by the shortage.
In a recent interview with TSMC Chairman Mark Liu on CBS 60 Minutes, Liu said the company can meet customer requests for automotive semiconductors by the end of June, but supply chain issues could delay automotive production by several more months.
The global economy and key end-equipment markets will drive growth in semiconductor demand through at least 2021 and 2022. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global GDP growth will rebound from 3.3% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic to a strong 6.0% in 2021, and GDP growth is expected to reach 4.4% in 2022, above the long-term trend.
IDC predicts that smartphone shipments will decline from 6.7% in 2020 to 5.5% in 2021 and will slow to 3.7% in 2022. The PC market will grow 13% in 2020 as home office and education drive demand. IDC expects a stronger 2021, with PC sales increasing 18%. It predicts a 5% decline in the PC market in 2022. Wards Intelligence/Morningstar projects that light vehicle shipments will grow strongly in 2021 after a 15% decline in 2020. Light vehicle growth will slow to 7% in 2022, above the long-term trend. However, a shortage of automotive semiconductors could limit growth in 2021.
Predicting the semiconductor market in 2021 is particularly difficult as the world recovers from the pandemic. Recovering demand for electronics is offset by a shortage of semiconductors. The shortage will push up some semiconductor prices, but other prices are set by long-term contracts. It takes about two years to build a new semiconductor plant, but in many cases, production at existing plants can be increased in a relatively short period of time.
There are two camps in the latest forecasts for the semiconductor market in 2021. The December 2020 WSTS forecast has been updated based on the final data of 20Q4, and it will grow by 10.9% in 2021. IDC's May forecast is for 12.5% in 2021. IDC pointed out that strong growth in major semiconductor markets will be offset by supply constraints. IC Insights believes that a strong first quarter of 21 and moderate growth in the next three quarters will drive full-year semiconductor growth of 19%.
Our latest forecast for Semiconductor Intelligence is similar to IC Insights, predicting 20% growth in 2021. We believe that strong demand will drive high growth, although shortages may limit upside. In the absence of supply constraints, potential growth could be in the 25% range. We expect semiconductor growth to slow to 12% in 2022, still above the long-term trend growth of 6% to 7%.
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