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Computer makers have been trying for years to sell PCs based on Arm processors, a family of processors that power mobile phones, because of their energy efficiency. But Arm-based PCs have been lacking in performance and software compatibility compared with products running on x86 chips from Intel and AMD.
Now, Apple's M1 processor, Apple's Arm-based chip that powers the new MacBook, is changing the way people think about Arm PCs. The M1 chip not only offers good battery life (like Qualcomm's Arm chips in some Windows laptops), but also excellent performance. Meanwhile, x86 PCs have only gradually improved.
So it wasn't surprising to hear some new optimism from Arm CEO Simon Segars.
“In a market that hasn’t had innovation for a long time, we’re seeing real innovation happening,” Segars said in an interview at the CES 2021 technology conference. “Whenever there’s discontinuity, people question how we did it, and that injects energy into innovation.”
Some of that innovation will come from Arm itself, which is pouring new engineering resources into PC chip design, he said. Another part may come from Nvidia, the leading graphics chip maker, which is trying to buy Arm for $40 billion.
Roger Kay, an analyst at Endpoint Technologies, said ARM does have a better chance thanks to Apple. "Arm has been trying to crack this market for a while now. I think they're really capable of doing it. Apple is the way to get there," he said. Arm's success will mean PCs that are powerful enough for mainstream buyers but efficient enough that you can leave the charger in your desk drawer for a day or two at a time without worrying about it.
Although Arm isn’t a household name, the Cambridge, England-based company’s technology powers the entire computing market. Most notably, Arm chips provide computing power in nearly every smartphone. They’re also used in networking equipment, Internet of Things gadgets, Raspberry Pi computers for hardware hackers, and the world’s fastest supercomputers. About 20 billion Arm chips are shipped each year.
Intel, AMD, and Apple's M1 "Beast"
To get ahead, ARM fans will have to consider new chips from Intel and AMD at CES. AMD's Ryzen 5000 series laptop chips will offer up to 17.5 hours of battery life, CEO Lis Su said Tuesday. Intel also showed off its next-generation Alder Lake processors later in the day. It adopts an approach long used in Arm chips, combining fast processing cores with slower, low-power cores.
Segars acknowledged that it's difficult to break into the PC ecosystem of component makers, software and PC manufacturers. He believes Arm's combination of performance and energy efficiency will eventually give it a significant market share.
Apple has proven that this is possible. “The M1 is a beast with a more radical core design,” said Kevin Krewell, an analyst at Tirias Research. “Apple’s M1 has verified that the Arm architecture can be very high performance and comparable to x86.”
Apple has an ecosystem advantage that other Arm PC makers lack: control over the MacOS operating system, including the ability to optimize performance and make sure everything works just right. For Windows PC software, supporting Arm chips is usually a secondary priority at best, even if Microsoft is enthusiastic. Software makers can treat Arm Windows versions of their products as optional, but in about two years, all Macs will be Arm-based.
Arm invests in new chip design
Arm, which is currently under the ownership of investment firm Softbank, has invested heavily in new engineering. Chipmakers can license Arm's complete chip designs or just the instruction sets that software uses to communicate with Arm chips, an approach that lets chipmakers design their own processors as needed.
Arm’s design prowess means chipmakers have less incentive to create their own designs. “There are more people licensing our CPU implementation technology than there were a few years ago,” Segars said. “You have to spend a lot of money to do better than Arm.”
Indeed, Samsung switched to Arm's Cortex-X1 design for its new eight-core Exynos 2100 mobile processor announced at CES on Tuesday. Not everyone is going in that direction, though. Fujitsu designs its own supercomputing chips, and Qualcomm announced Wednesday that it acquired startup Nuvia to breathe new life into its Arm chip designs. If the Nuvia technology lives up to its promise, it would also be a big boost to the Arm PC market, since Qualcomm is the main chip maker behind Arm-powered Windows laptops.
What is not clear is how much of an impact Nvidia's attempted acquisition of Arm will have on those chip licensees, which include companies such as Qualcomm, MediaTek, Huawei, Marvell and Amazon. Nvidia and Arm believe their chip technologies are complementary and well suited for next-generation computing needs. Arm has been working to assure chip licensees that they will be able to license Arm products as always, but the reality is that Arm will also become part of a major competitor.
"This is a cross-sector acquisition. The industry is very opposed to it," Kay said. He predicted it could spark interest in alternatives such as RISC-V, a new chip instruction set that can be used without Arm's licensing hurdles.
Nvidia and Arm have spent 18 months convincing regulators that the acquisition is a good idea, which means the acquisition could be completed in early 2022. Segars said the two companies have made significant progress in convincing regulators.
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