Taiwanese media: Huawei's mobile phone market share may decline next year, and Taiwanese manufacturers are facing a painful period of order transfer

According to Taiwan's Economic Daily News, as the US government expands its blockade of Huawei, Huawei's overseas smartphone shipments have dropped by nearly one-third. Although Huawei's order gap may be filled by mobile phone brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, the supply chain atmosphere of most Taiwanese manufacturers is not pessimistic, but they still have to face the pain period of order conversion.

The new ban will take effect tomorrow (15th). At that time, all chip manufacturers that use US technology and software will need permission from the US government before they can ship to Huawei. Analysts estimate that Huawei's suppliers in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, with a total annual revenue of US$26.4 billion, will inevitably be affected.

Judging from the situation in recent years, in addition to Apple, Taiwan's mobile phone supply chain has gradually increased the proportion of its supply to mainland China in recent years. Huawei's supply chain includes wafer foundry TSMC, IC design MediaTek, foundry Foxconn, lens manufacturer Largan, etc.

Among them, TSMC has stated that it will not ship to Huawei after September 14; MediaTek has nearly US$500 million in annual revenue related to Huawei, and the company has submitted relevant applications to the US.

Cai Minghan, manager of Cathay Securities and Futures Advisory Department, analyzed that Huawei accounts for about 15% of TSMC's revenue. The market will initially worry about the revenue gap, but based on the "big reservoir" principle, consumer demand is not disappearing but shifting. TSMC has diverse customers, and the gap will soon be filled by other customers in the future.

However, the ban not only impacts semiconductor giants, but also suppliers of other components such as batteries and circuit boards. Looking at the PCB industry subgroups, those more closely related to Huawei's supply chain include Xinxing, Nandian, Kinsus, and Tripod; copper foil substrate manufacturers Lianmao and Tai Optoelectronics; and flexible board manufacturer Zhen Ding-KY.

台媒指出，一家PCB大厂高层私下透露称，华为陆续加码累积库存，因此目前订单并没有显著改变，禁令上路后，华为的订单缺口已由小米承接，加上苹果iPhone拉货，HDI产能从7月到10月都是满载，在旺季效应支撑下，运营完全不受影响，而淡季也会有其他厂商填补。

The person analyzed that if the demand in the global mobile phone consumer market does not change, it means that orders will not disappear. If Huawei fades out of the market, other major mobile phone manufacturers will occupy its vacant market share. Since most of Huawei's sales are in mainland China, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo will have the opportunity to benefit. The atmosphere of most Taiwanese manufacturers will not be too pessimistic, but whether there will be a pain period in order conversion depends on the response of each manufacturer.