Solid-state battery competition: various giants enter the market, no one dares to lose

Solid-state batteries have become the new favorite of the industry amid controversy and doubts. With the entry of various giants, the future of solid-state batteries has gradually become clear. If lithium batteries opened the door to the era of electric vehicles, then solid-state batteries may allow this era to go further.

Solid-state batteries are a must-have for breaking through the status quo

In the past few years, the technology of power batteries has advanced by leaps and bounds, but safety hazards and range anxiety remain a dilemma that is difficult to get rid of.

Today, the development momentum of electric vehicles is strong, and the sales of electric vehicles have repeatedly set new highs, but the safety risks of batteries are also emerging in an endless stream.

In fact, the safety risks of electric vehicles are mainly due to liquid lithium batteries.

Once the battery is squeezed or impacted, the diaphragm will rupture, causing a short circuit between the positive and negative electrodes; at the same time, a large amount of heat is generated inside the lithium battery, coupled with the flammable organic solvents in the liquid electrolyte, resulting in the battery catching fire or even exploding.

Solid-state batteries are expected to completely solve safety issues. The positive and negative electrodes of solid-state batteries are not prone to short circuits; solid electrolytes are not only non-flammable and non-volatile, but can also withstand high temperatures. The battery will not catch fire or explode under the same extreme conditions.

The only way to solve the range anxiety is to increase the energy density of the battery. According to the Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap, the energy density target for power batteries is 400Wh/kg in 2025 and 500Wh/kg in 2030.

If we want to achieve the 2030 goal, the existing liquid lithium battery technology route may not be able to take on the task. The energy density ceiling of 350Wh/kg alone is difficult to break, but the energy density of solid-state batteries can easily exceed 350Wh/kg.

In addition, solid-state batteries have an extremely long lifespan and can still retain more than 90% of their power after 30 years of use, which can be recycled and reused. Therefore, solid-state batteries are better than lithium batteries in all aspects.

The energy density of solid-state batteries is more than ten times that of ordinary lithium batteries, and the charging speed is also dozens of times that of lithium batteries, which makes new energy vehicles equipped with this battery have a longer endurance.

With the continuous development of new energy vehicles, the current market has higher and higher requirements for power batteries. Whether in terms of battery life, energy density or safety, various types of lithium batteries with obvious advantages and disadvantages are obviously no longer suitable for the requirements of the new era.

Solid-state batteries are the future development direction of lithium batteries

Currently, the energy density that liquid lithium batteries can achieve is close to its limit, while the energy density of all-solid-state lithium batteries has the potential to exceed 500wh/kg. Therefore, solid-state batteries are the future development direction of lithium batteries.

At present, global companies have begun to increase their research and layout in solid-state lithium batteries. With the promotion of policies in various countries, the industrialization process of solid-state lithium batteries is expected to accelerate.

According to relevant institutions' predictions, by 2030, global demand for solid-state batteries is expected to reach 500GWh. According to conservative estimates by experts, the market size will exceed 300 billion yuan.

It is expected that my country's solid-state battery shipments will grow rapidly from 2021 to 2030, and may exceed 250GWh by 2030.

Various giants plan to pursue the solid-state battery market

On January 9 this year, NIO launched a 150kWh solid-state battery pack with an energy density of 360Wh/kg at its NIO Day. The NIO ET7 sedan equipped with this battery pack will have a range of more than 1,000km, which is eye-catching.

Volkswagen Group said it will focus on developing solid-state battery technology in the future and expects to start using solid-state batteries in 2025.

The BMW Group plans to launch a prototype vehicle equipped with solid-state batteries by 2025 and achieve mass production by 2030.

CATL invested 3.3 billion to build the 21C Innovation Laboratory for the research and development of next-generation batteries such as metal lithium batteries and all-solid-state batteries;

LG Chem said it will commercialize all-solid-state batteries between 2025 and 2027;

Panasonic plans to launch an electric car using solid-state batteries in 2025.

Solid-state hybrid is the near future

Today is an era of explosion of new automotive technologies. Unlike previous smart networking technologies, which took a lot of effort to adapt to cars because the smartphone ecosystem was gradually taking shape, current new automotive technologies need to solve both hardware and software problems.

The current technical difficulties of pure solid-state technology batteries are that the lithium ion migration efficiency of the solid electrolyte will directly affect the ionic conductivity of the solid electrolyte, and the interface impedance between the electrode and the electrolyte will increase.

That is to say, although the realized effect will change the battery industry, it is still in the laboratory stage due to reasons such as conductive efficiency and stable operation.

At the same time, as one of the core components of electric vehicles, power batteries occupy a high-cost share in the entire three-electric system. When there are no large-scale supporting companies in the upstream and downstream, it is difficult to face problems such as high costs, recall pressure, and subsequent maintenance with only a few companies' trials.

Therefore, the current situation is that the solid-hybrid battery industry with a liquid ratio of 5%-10% will be a good solution that meets the requirements of safety, cost, and technology at the same time, and it is also a good idea before transitioning to pure solid-state batteries.

Solid-state battery mass production after 2030

At present, the cost of solid-state batteries is believed to be more than four times that of lithium batteries, and in pure electric vehicles, battery costs account for about 30%-40%.

All-solid-state batteries should be mass-produced after 2030. Of course, if there is a major scientific breakthrough, it may happen within 10 years.

At present, solid-state batteries are still in the experimental research and development stage. What investors need to pay attention to is the mass production time of various solid-state battery integrators. Only when solid-state battery manufacturers have achieved mass production through experiments can they drive upstream material manufacturers to start increasing production.

Moreover, upstream companies in the industrial chain are also in the supporting research and development stage. Therefore, the solid-state battery business currently has no substantial performance-boosting effect on upstream companies in the industrial chain. However, the layout of solid-state battery technology by upstream material suppliers may at least ensure that they will not fall behind in the future.

However, mass production is not the final outcome, and cost-effectiveness is always a link that cannot be avoided.

From mass production to application, it still needs to be verified by the market. In the future, reasonable economic feasibility may be an important factor influencing the large-scale application of solid-state batteries.

At present, the technical difficulties of all-solid-state electrolyte lithium-powered batteries include the low lithium ion conductivity of solid electrolyte materials, poor solid/solid interface contact and stability, and the rechargeability of metallic lithium.

Due to technical and cost constraints, large-scale commercial applications of solid-state batteries are not expected until 2025, and they will only be suitable for certain scenarios in the short term.

end:

From [liquid] to [semi-solid] and then to [solid], every step is not easy and requires facing multiple issues such as planned production, cost and commerciality, and supply chain support.

But no matter what, in order to make new energy vehicles go further, the hurdle of power batteries must be overcome.

Range anxiety and safety are unavoidable topics regarding power batteries. In the future, whoever masters the key technology of solid-state batteries first will take the initiative.