Analysis of European electrification penetration data in the first quarter of 2021

AECA's more complete data is out, and we can take a closer look at the situation in Europe. In the first quarter of 2021, new car registrations in Europe rose 0.9% year-on-year to 3.08 million units. In terms of traditional power, diesel sales fell 20.1% compared with the same period last year, with EU sales of 593,500 units and a market share of 23.2% (29.9% in Q1 2020). Demand for gasoline vehicles continued to decline, with sales falling 16.9% from 1.3 million units in Q1 2020 to 1.1 million units in Q1 2021 (market share fell from 52.3% to 42.2%).

Figure 1: The proportion of each type in the EU

Part I. Overview

In the first quarter of this year, the total number of xEVs in Europe hit 800,000, with hybrids being the most prominent. The market penetration rate of hybrids in Europe has reached 18.4% (up 101.6% year-on-year to 469,784 units), pure electric vehicles 5.7% (up 59.1% to 146,185 units), and plug-in hybrid vehicles 8.2% (up 175.0% to a total of 208,389 units). In terms of the proportion structure, nearly 470,000 HEVs are also concentrated in Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and France, and there are also many hybrids in Spain.

Note: Hybrid sales increased significantly in several countries, including Italy (+246.8%), France (+135.0%), Germany (+60.5%) and Spain (+39.4%)

Figure 2 Sales volume of HEV, PHEV and BEV in major European countries in Q1 2021

I put HEV, PHEV and BEV together to see the current situation more clearly. From these countries, except for the Nordic countries such as Norway, Denmark and Sweden, which may skip the hybrid and directly enter the era of BEV and PHEV, most European countries with large volumes still need HEV for transition.

Figure 3: Proportion of electrified vehicles in various countries in Q1 2021
 

1) Electric vehicles Compared to the first quarter of 2020, the number of pure electric vehicles in Europe increased by 59.1% to 146,185. The growth rate is not that high, and it still depends on the government's stimulus for zero-emission vehicles. This is reflected in the fact that the countries with year-on-year growth are mainly concentrated in Germany (+149.0%) and Italy (+145.6%). In contrast, the decline in the Netherlands is obvious, the demand in Spain has dropped (-12.6%), and France is basically sideways.

Figure 4 Comparison of BEV in Q1 2021 and last year

2) Plug-in hybrid: Plug-in hybrid is a big surprise this year, with a very obvious increase of 175.0%, totaling 208,389 units. The largest of these is Italy, with 16,103 PHEV registrations in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 445.7%. It is followed by Germany (+195.4%), France (+231.4%) and Spain (+116.1%), all of which have more PHEVs.

Figure 5 PHEV 2021 Q1 comparison with last year

3) HEV In the short term, European automakers may have to use hybrid vehicles (including 48V medium hybrid) to make the transition. In the first quarter, 469,784 hybrid vehicles were registered (up 101.6% from the same period last year). The largest markets increased very quickly, including Italy (+246.8%), France (+135.0%), Germany (+60.5%) and Spain (+39.4%).

Figure 6 HEV market comparison in Q1 2021 and last year

Part II Map Visualization

Based on the three-dimensional map, we can see the data identification of European electrified vehicles.

Figure 7 Distribution of three types of vehicles in Europe in map form

I think in the European market, Volkswagen chooses 48V+BEV, Toyota chooses HEV, and Daimler and BMW choose 48V standard configuration, coupled with PHEV+BEV. Because these markets are concentrated in a few major markets, consumers will not choose all of them. For example, HEV and PHEV are overlapping consumer choices. If there are no subsidies and other factors, consumers will still be more free to choose HEV in the short term.

Figure 8 Distribution of three types of vehicles in Europe

Summary: AECA’s data is relatively complete, but it was released relatively late, so you can refer to it.