Analysis of PHEV & HEV sales data in November

PHEV vs HEV

After talking about pure electric vehicles, let's compare PHEV and HEV. Although the total number of these two is much smaller, PHEV (10,361 units) is much smaller than HEV (27,721 units), there are many details that can be compared.

01 Differences in
graded
concentration 

The following table shows the different grades of PHEV and HEV products. We can see some problems:

1) Among PHEVs, sedans and D-class cars are more than the sum of other types, and there are also some SUVs. If you look closely, they are still luxury sedans made into PHEVs. If the pricing strategy is not much more expensive than that of fuel vehicles, this volume plus license plates will be very attractive in some regions. PHEV is essentially a very scattered market.

2) The HEV market is highly dependent on the supply side. As Toyota focuses on the supply of A-class cars and Honda focuses on the hybrid differentiation of MPVs, this pattern has been formed.

I think this is still a problem of market segmentation supply, and the test is how to survive in a competitive environment.

The problem with PHEV is indeed as mentioned above. It has begun to become a luxury car. The price of 530le is based on the added value of the brand, which makes consumers' choices very biased. There are Tang PHEV and MG eHS with more than 1,000 units. The production of many other PHEVs based on the original fuel vehicle configuration is relatively low. This is the future of PHEVs. Will they add configurations to fuel vehicles or sell them in conjunction with BEVs? This logic will restrict the sales of PHEVs.

Therefore, by brand, we can get the following situation. The situation in November is somewhat representative. In the future, the competition of PHEV will be beyond the traditional vehicle range, fuel consumption and acceleration.

Also, whether it is Mercedes-Benz or Volvo, the slow growth in the volume of PHEVs worldwide has reduced the enthusiasm of battery suppliers for development. Currently, the number of PHEV battery cell providers and battery cell specifications remains at a low level.

02 Everyone knows that
HEV is a road

As for HEV, the industry knows that it is an inevitable stage in the evolution of powertrain. If BEV is ahead of the times, HEV can be slower. If BEV promotion speed does not meet expectations, HEV survival and penetration rate will inevitably be longer and wider. But what is the problem now? Toyota, which is constantly increasing its hybrid share in A-class cars, is too stable.

As shown in the figure below, these two cars don't seem to make much money (according to our calculations, we can say that a tie is a win), but the volume has lifted the Camry, Avalon, and the RAV4 HEV. So we see that Geely started to make HEV on Lynk & Co., which is also an attempt. HEV also needs a little brand support and a little premium. If the system is directly installed on A-class cars, consumers can compare the pricing and fuel consumption differences between Corolla and Levin, and this work will be more effective.

The current market share of HEV is so one-sided in the market segments that it is difficult for the prices of core components to compete with the leading Japanese brands.

The battery for HEV is indeed difficult to obtain, and it is not easy to find suppliers under the supply system dominated by Japanese HEV.

Summary: If a brand is moving towards electrification, it can abandon pure fuel engines like Volvo and make choices among HEV, PHEV and EV.