The 4680 craze has set off around the world. Will the power battery market change?

In terms of the packaging form of power batteries, prismatic and soft-pack batteries have always been in the mainstream, while cylindrical batteries are rarely adopted by the majority of car companies. Come 2023, this status quo may be about to change.

On January 28, it was reported that General Motors, the global auto giant, is considering switching from soft-pack batteries used in its electric models to cylindrical batteries. The latter is likely to choose batteries similar to Tesla's 4680 specifications. .

Prior to this, the BMW Group also announced that it will use large round batteries in its "new level" electric vehicles from 2025, and will produce and process products in two battery factories in China and overseas, with an annual production capacity of up to 40GWh.

In addition, domestic and foreign car companies such as Porsche, Volvo, Stellantis, and Jianghuai have also successively released signals that they plan to use large cylindrical batteries.

A 'huge breakthrough' for cylindrical batteries

Why are more and more car companies turning their attention to cylindrical batteries? Everything starts with Tesla’s 4680 large cylindrical battery.

In terms of the adoption of power battery packaging forms, Tesla is one of the few car companies that uses cylindrical power batteries on a large scale, from the 1865 batteries used in the earliest Model S to the 2170 batteries currently used in Model 3 and Model Y. On the road to building cars, Tesla chooses to develop most of its core components in-house, including power batteries.

Tesla 4680 battery; Image source: Tesla

In September 2020, the 4680 large cylindrical battery appeared for the first time at Tesla's "Battery Day" and was called a "huge breakthrough" in battery technology by Elon Musk. From the naming point of view, 4680 is a large cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46mm and a height of 80mm. Tesla said that compared to the 2170 battery, the single energy of the 4680 battery is increased by 5 times, which can increase the vehicle mileage by 16%. In the future, improvements in battery materials and vehicle design will result in a net increase in cruising range of 56% and a 54% reduction in production costs.

Taking Tesla's best-selling Model 3 as an example, if 2170 batteries are used, about 4,400 cells are needed to fill the entire battery pack, and the battery capacity is about 78.3kWh. If 4680 cells are used, only more than 950 cells can be used to fill the entire battery pack, and the corresponding total capacity can reach 130kWh, an increase of 75%.

It can be seen that using the larger 4680 battery cell can reduce the amount of packaging materials, reduce the cost of packaging the battery shell, and the weight will also be reduced. In addition, another benefit brought by large-volume battery cells is that the gaps between the battery cells become larger, making it easier to arrange heat dissipation devices.

Based on the better heat dissipation performance of large cylinders, the Tesla 4680 battery uses high-nickel positive electrode + silicon-carbon negative electrode materials, as well as tip-less technology, which greatly reduces the risk of thermal runaway of high-nickel batteries and increases the energy density to 300kWh/ kg.

Tianfeng Securities analysis pointed out that the advantage of large cylindrical batteries is their strong ability to cope with thermal runaway, but their disadvantage is low group efficiency. Combining with high-nickel ternary batteries can maximize their strengths and avoid weaknesses. The advantage of high-nickel ternary batteries is high energy density, but the disadvantage is poor thermal stability. 4680 paired with high nickel ternary can give full play to the advantages of high energy density and good safety.

It is well known in the industry that in the development process of automobile electrification, the importance of power batteries is self-evident. Its cruising range and cost have always been important factors that restrict the rapid realization of full market penetration of pure electric vehicles. Moreover, since 2021, the raw materials of power batteries have experienced multiple price increases, which has made the demand of car companies to increase efficiency and reduce costs more intense. It is not surprising that the 4680 large cylindrical battery, which has more advantages in performance, cost, and safety, can quickly emerge from the industry. .

Large cylindrical batteries have obvious advantages, but they are not without disadvantages.

It is understood that 4680 batteries using tipless technology face many challenges in the production process, especially in the aspects of cutting, liquid injection, flattening and laser welding. Among them, in the laser welding process - from the traditional two-lug spot welding to the full-lug surface welding, the welding process and the amount of welding have increased. The laser intensity and focal length are not easy to control, and the welding is easy to burn into the battery or cannot be Welded all. These problems directly affect the improvement of 4680 battery yield rate.

In July 2021, Musk also admitted that the 4680 battery had encountered mass production bottlenecks. Since then, after continuous improvements, in a conference call in the third quarter of 2022, Tesla CEO Musk said: "The company has finally achieved rapid development in 4680 batteries." It is reported that in the first half of 2022, Tesla The yield rate of small batches of 4680 battery cells produced in the California factory has reached 92%. Currently, at the Austin Gigafactory in Texas, the weekly output of Tesla's 4680 batteries is enough to manufacture more than 1,000 battery packs.

4680 battery craze sets off globally

Driven by Tesla, the global electric vehicle industry has almost launched a 4680 battery boom in recent years.

As mentioned at the beginning of the article, not only are more and more car companies switching from prismatic and soft-pack battery routes to tracking cylindrical battery technology routes, but also more and more power battery companies are beginning to increase the promotion of large cylindrical batteries. and layout.

According to the analysis compiled by Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, Tesla and Panasonic are the two companies that have made rapid progress in launching 4680 batteries on the market, as well as LG New Energy, CATL, Everview Lithium Energy, BAK Battery, Envision Power, Honeycomb Energy, etc. Battery companies are actively following up on large cylindrical batteries including 4680.

Image source: Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute

As Tesla's battery supplier, Panasonic revealed as early as November 2021 that the 4680 large cylindrical battery was close to mass production. The new 4680 production line is under construction and is expected to be put into production in 2022.

In June 2022, LG New Energy stated that it would invest 582 billion won (approximately 3 billion yuan) to build new infrastructure at the Ouchang factory in South Korea to produce 4680 batteries. The new production line has a capacity of 9GWh and is expected to be launched in the second half of 2023. put into production.

In August of the same year, Cui Xun, head of Samsung SDI China, announced at the World New Energy Vehicle Conference that Samsung was determined to develop 46 series batteries, including three types of batteries: 4680, 4695 and 46120. According to the plan, Samsung SDI will mass-produce 4680 batteries in its Malaysian factory, with a planned production capacity of 8-12 GWh.

Domestic power battery company CATL has planned 8 production lines with 12GWh of 4680 large cylindrical battery production capacity. In September 2022, it announced that it would build 20GWh production capacity in China and Europe. It is expected to start mass production in 2024 and officially deliver it in 2025.

Yiwei Lithium Energy released a new generation of 4695 large cylindrical batteries in December 2022, with an energy density of 350Wh/kg, which can achieve 9min ultra-fast charging and 500-1000km battery life, reducing manufacturing costs by 50%. It is reported that the company’s 46 series large cylindrical battery project is progressing in an orderly manner as planned. According to the plan, Yiwei Lithium Energy's total large cylindrical battery production capacity will exceed 100GWh in 2025.

As mentioned earlier, the BMW Group will use cylindrical batteries in "new generation" models starting from 2025, and the cylindrical battery suppliers it is looking for are CATL and Everview Lithium Energy. It is reported that BMW has awarded these two partners contracts worth more than 10 billion euros (approximately 73.7 billion yuan) for battery cell production needs.

In addition, the BMW Group also announced a long-term cooperation with Envision Powertrain, which will provide cylindrical batteries for its new generation models starting in 2026. To this end, Envision Power will build a new zero-carbon battery factory in South Carolina, USA, to provide products for BMW, with a planned production capacity of 30GWh and is scheduled to be put into production in 2026.

Honeycomb Energy has exhibited a 23Ah 4680 battery at the 2021 Shanghai Auto Show, with an NCM positive electrode, a planned energy density of 235Wh/kg, and a cycle life of more than 1,200 times. It is used in pure electric vehicles, but the mass production time is unknown.

It is worth mentioning that just recently (January 28), Shenzhen BAK Power Battery Co., Ltd. announced that it had signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province. BAK Power will spend 13 billion yuan to build its large cylindrical battery in Changzhou. The production line will have a production capacity of 30GWh after completion.

As one of the first domestic companies to produce cylindrical batteries, BAK currently has 46 series, 3x series and 26 series series, with cell heights ranging from 70mm to 160mm. It is understood that in the 46 series, which has received the most attention in the market, BAK will begin to deliver samples in batches in 2021, and the performance is in line with expectations. Based on different fast charging capabilities of 8-15 minutes, the current battery energy density ranges from 280Wh/kg to Between 330Wh/kg.