4680 batteries are about to be mass-produced! Who is the most panicked?

Recently, Panasonic revealed to the Wall Street Journal that more than a year after Tesla launched its new battery design at Battery Day, they have come up with a 4680 cylindrical lithium battery with a capacity five times higher for mass production.

According to Kazuo Tadanobu, head of Panasonic's battery division, Panasonic plans to start trial production of 4680 batteries in Japan in March 2022. And, just last month, Panasonic announced that it would create a new energy business unit called Panasonic Energy by April 2022. In addition, this year, Panasonic established a test line for 4680 batteries in Japan.

After all, the background is what Tesla hopes to do, to increase the production of 4680 batteries 100 times by 2030 .

Interestingly, in the summary of this roundtable meeting, Tadanobu Kazuo said: "...Panasonic has no plans to make cheaper lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries for more affordable electric vehicles ." In fact, according to relevant information, Tesla is already preparing to use blade batteries made by BYD on the Model Y. According to some reports, even Apple is looking for LFP battery suppliers.

4680 Speed ​​up

The 4680 battery was first released at Tesla's Battery Day in September last year. According to the introduction at that time, this tab-free (also called full-tab) battery has a five-fold increase in single-cell energy density, reaching 300Wh/kg, and a six-fold increase in charge and discharge efficiency compared to tab-equipped batteries.

In fact, after mass production, the driving range can be increased by 16%, and with the new assembly technology and battery pack design, the cost per kWh of the 4680 battery is reduced by 56%. It can be said that it has surpassed the battery with tabs in all aspects.

In addition, at the earnings conference on July 27 this year, Musk said, "It is expected that by the end of next year, Tesla will reach an annual 4680 battery production capacity of 100GWh ."

Although Elon Musk had previously said that 4680 batteries were unreliable for cars, he changed his tone at this earnings conference and said that 4680 batteries were reliable enough for vehicles in limited quantities, and that the only challenge now was overcoming the challenges of mass manufacturing of 4680 batteries: the main difficulty at present was the high extrusion of the positive electrode, but it was only a matter of time for the team to solve it, and they would strive to make a breakthrough as soon as possible.

Musk is confident about the reliability of the 4680 battery. "We have successfully verified the performance and life of the 4680 battery, including a mileage test of 1 million miles. Tesla has ordered a large number of equipment for mass production of 4680 batteries."

In terms of battery yield, industry sources previously said that the yield of Tesla's 4680 battery was only about 20% in 2020. However, with the improvement of technology and the optimization and improvement of production lines, the yield of Tesla's 4680 battery test production line in the United States has now increased to about 80%. This speed is quite amazing.

Although there is still a gap to the 90% yield rate required for mass production, with Tesla's technological iteration and update speed, it is completely feasible to mass produce 4680 batteries in 2022. Now Panasonic has produced the actual 4680 battery, indicating that mass production of 4680 batteries will come soon.

In addition, Musk also admitted that in addition to Tesla's own production of batteries, "we do hope to see a significant increase in supply from existing suppliers, so there will be supply from both sides."

This is due to two reasons. On the one hand, Tesla has a large unmet demand for energy storage, especially Megapack and Powerwall.

On the other hand, there are also chip reasons. Because many of the same chips as cars are used in the production of Powerwall, Tesla is currently reducing the production of Powerwall to manufacture cars. Of course, in the future, as the "chip shortage" is alleviated, Tesla can massively increase the production of Powerwall.

Musk estimates that the production capacity of 1 million Powerwalls may be reached next year, which is 20,000 per week, but it also depends on the supply of batteries and chips. Judging from Tesla's demand, there may be a rigid demand for more than 1 million Powerwalls per year in the future.

Let me briefly explain here. In short, Powerwall is an energy storage device with a built-in rechargeable lithium battery pack, liquid cooling module, inverter, etc. It is mainly aimed at home users, with a built-in battery capacity of 7~13.5kWh, while the commercial version is called Powerpack, with a built-in 100kWh battery, mainly used in public places such as schools and hospitals. Powerwall mainly plays the role of "peak shaving and valley filling", and can also play an emergency role if the power grid is out of power.

This also explains why Tesla is so "hungry" for batteries. In the long run, Musk expects that Tesla and its suppliers will need to produce at least 1,000GWh or even 2,000GWh of batteries per year. Therefore, Panasonic's role as a battery supplier for Tesla is quite important.

Can 4680 become popular?

In "46800 battery, the end of the fuel era?", I also said that someone in China quickly followed up with 46800 batteries. This company is JAC Group (formerly JAC Motors). The corresponding supplier is BAK Battery.

Moreover, according to JAC's technical director, the 46800 battery will "end the era of oil vehicles."

Why? Tesla's 46800 battery's tab-free architecture design is directly beneficial to improving manufacturability. A thermal management engineer at a new energy OEM said: "Compared to the performance improvement, I personally think that the elimination of the tab design is a disruptive change for the industry. For battery thermal management, the reduction in heat also means that the design of a battery liquid cooling system may not be necessary."

Of course, one thing that needs to be pointed out is that the energy density of the 4680 battery has not actually increased much. According to calculations, it is roughly around 283Wh/kg (battery weight energy density = battery capacity × discharge platform voltage/weight, the basic unit is Wh/kg). Taking into account other technical improvements, the total capacity of the 4680 battery cell should be able to reach 30Ah and the energy density can reach 300Wh/kg.

The technical director of JAC said, "After the launch of 4680 battery, it is a boost to all battery cells in our industry. After this specification is released, its volume, energy density, and its process, after this combination is reorganized, this battery cell can be used to make a small car with a range of 600km (A0 and A00). And the standard A-class car (using 4680 battery) can reach 800~1000 kilometers."

It seems that Tesla's 46800 battery will be a typical example of "disruptive technology". As a technological innovation, its technological products are completely new and unprecedented. For traditional car companies, disruptive technology often targets an undetectable area at the beginning. It cannot meet the growth needs and strong manufacturing capabilities of traditional scale, which poses a challenge to the decision-making of traditional car companies.

At present, the only company in China that is following up on 4680 batteries is JAC Group Sihao New Energy. Although there was news in early September that Tesla began to look for 4680 battery partners in China, the target battery suppliers included CATL, LG Chem, and EVE Energy, etc. However, EVE Energy denied it.

Denial does not mean not making 4680 batteries. Just in early September, Israeli battery startup StoreDot announced that it had successfully produced the first 4680 battery, which can be fully charged in just 10 minutes, 5 minutes faster than Tesla. Moreover, according to the company's press release, "(4680) battery samples are currently being stepped up on the production line of the company's manufacturing partner in China, Yiwei Lithium Energy."

This is "the body is very honest". According to domestic media 36Kr, CATL's 4680 battery research and development is accelerating, and the project name is "Golden Hoop". In addition, LG Chem has also successively developed 4680, 4690 and other batteries, hoping to enter Tesla's supply chain again.

As for JAC, on February 1 this year, it signed a three-year strategic agreement on joint product development with CBAK Energy Technology (formerly known as BAK Battery). According to the agreement, CBAK Energy Technology will provide customized solutions for power batteries and battery packs based on JAC's technical requirements, and the two parties will also jointly develop 4680 lithium batteries and battery packs.

CBAK was founded in August 2001 and is now called China-Belgium Energy Technology Co., Ltd. It was listed on NASDAQ in 2006, becoming the first Chinese lithium battery company to be listed in the United States. After the contract is signed, if the 46800 battery is mass-produced in 2022, it should be used in Sihao New Energy's vehicles.

In any case, the 4680 battery has entered the mass production stage at a speed that exceeds the industry's expectations. It has an impact on the existing battery industry structure, and after breaking through the range anxiety, it has an impact on the structure of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles. After all, domestic car companies mainly use soft-pack and square-shell lithium batteries. And according to the trend that Tesla's annual sales of 1 million vehicles are just around the corner, the 4680 battery may soon become a new favorite like the blade battery favored by major car companies.

So, the last question is, if 4680 becomes popular, who will be the most panicked?