What we know about Apple Car and what we might think about it

Whether you like it or not, no one can deny that Tesla is the pioneer and spokesperson of smart electric vehicles. So, what will Apple Car be? Is it a safer, smarter, more advanced Tesla, or something else?

Doug Field recently resigned as head of Apple's Car project (code-named Titan) and joined Ford. His departure has triggered a new round of speculation about whether it will deal a blow to the Apple Car project.

Although Apple never talks much about the Apple Car project to the outside world, we can still get a glimpse of the inside scoop from clues from technology suppliers.

What is known about Apple Car

First, we can easily summarize the known information about Apple Car:

Apple will move forward with the Apple Car project, which will be an electric car.

The Apple Car could be launched between 2025 and 2027, although some predictions put it by 2030.

Apple's focus is likely to be on developing novel UI and smart cockpit.

Apple will provide new services and businesses based on SOA architecture.

The initial Apple Car will not be fully self-driving, but will come with a powerful ADAS package.

Apple's motivation for entering the automotive industry is not due to its technological capabilities. Apple needs to open up another huge incremental market after iPhone sales stabilize.

Electrification is the driving force behind many new car manufacturers and Apple. With the increase of electronic products, electric vehicles become more like personal computers than cars. Electronic manufacturing services (EMS) such as Foxconn, Compal and Flextronics are eager to enter the electric vehicle field, making the electric vehicle production market unpredictable and full of competition.

Supply chain is the key Apple's strong capabilities in software and system design add credibility to its car-making. But if Apple has a huge advantage over other electric car companies, it is Apple's strong ability to manage the supply chain. Apple has mastered how to choose reliable partners for hardware procurement, manufacturing, adjusting components according to Apple standards, and assembly (EMS suppliers) in past hardware products.

Apple is looking at the long-term future of the supply chain from every angle. Some analysts even suspect that Apple influenced Foxconn's decision to acquire a SiC factory from Macronix. Foxconn's move, announced in early August, took everyone by surprise. Some even began to believe that Foxconn must already have a customer and that Apple was the only company that could push Foxconn in this direction.

Apple can use its knowledge of the semiconductor supply chain to manage the future availability of core components for electric vehicles, an approach that most traditional automakers are unfamiliar with.

To understand Apple's car strategy, one need only look to the iPhone. Apple will get everything it needs from elsewhere, especially from Apple's existing long-term partners, while implementing "Apple standards" throughout. The chips, software, and design will all stay in-house.

Not fully autonomous driving

While Apple is undoubtedly developing a full AV stack, many believe that the first Apple Car still won’t be fully autonomous.

Here's why. Google started the AV project in 2009. Waymo has been testing in Chandler, Arizona, and will move to San Francisco in the future. Now it's 2021, and it will take more than two to three years to test and verify this technology to automotive grade and cover all scenarios.

It would be more realistic for Apple to launch a powerful ADAS software package, including L2+ (hands-off on highways) and even some L3 functions.

challenge

Vehicle dynamics is an area that Apple is unfamiliar with. Apple's positioning certainly requires perfect chassis, braking, suspension and handling, all of which affect the handling, comfort and styling of the vehicle. Apple cannot ignore them because consumers will care very much, and Apple fans will not accept a very bulky Apple Car.

What will be the killer app?

If it's not fully autonomous, what will make the Apple Car stand out? The UI is key, but what kind of UI will it be?

Currently, all car manufacturers are eager to innovate in UI. Mercedes-Benz even launched a 56-inch Hyperscreen (based on Nvidia chips) at CES earlier this year.

Another popular in-vehicle technology is DMS. Musk once complained that DMS was as redundant as an elevator janitor, but many car manufacturers have now launched hands-off functions on highways, making DMS a necessary safety feature.

For Apple, if it wants to surpass these, it cannot just rely on better voice or gesture control. One option is to "turn the entire front windshield into a HUD." But the current technical support for HUD still has problems. In fact, HUD has existed for a long time, but there has been no essential breakthrough in the market, mainly because of cost.

But what about combining HUD with eye tracking in DMS? The driver keeps his eyes on the road ahead, his hands are still on the steering wheel, and he can select music, choose a contact to call, or adjust the temperature by just glancing at the HUD icon, etc. Drivers have always been distracted by the long hours they spent staring at the navigation or instrument panel. So it is better to put the information on the HUD so that the driver can always keep his eyes on the road ahead.

Seeing Machines’ aviation business unit is a leader in DMS, providing high-precision gaze tracking technology for use in flight simulators and cockpits to train pilots. Pat Nolan, head of Seeing Machines’ aviation business unit, said that in a Boeing 787 equipped with a pilot HUD, Seeing Machines’ technology can track and identify the precise information in the HUD that the pilot is looking at when making a decision.

Nolan cautions that achieving similar levels of accuracy in an in-car environment is not easy, as drivers tend to sit and look around. Still, Seeing Machines’ core technology’s ability to track eye gaze and human parameters such as driver fatigue and decision-making could drive the design of UIs that could greatly enhance the capabilities of future vehicles.

Yole also sees the potential of large HUD as a potential Apple Car UI. Yole believes that the advancement of AR glasses is highly relevant and applicable to the development of HUD.

Yole predicts that Apple may launch the first AR glasses by 2023, and they may be fully promoted by 2025. Yole believes that by 2030, such AR technology combined with eye tracking may be transplanted to in-vehicle applications. Through eye tracking, the HUD can change the display according to the driver's gaze, and AR can show things on the HUD that the driver missed or could not see.