LiDAR market expected to reach US$5.7 billion in 2026, ADAS has great growth potential

LiDAR has great potential in the application of driver assistance systems (ADAS), and the technology selection and supply chain management of automotive applications will greatly affect the future development of the LiDAR market. Dr. Alexis Debray, senior technology and market analyst for optics/sensing/semiconductors at Yole Développement, said that LiDAR has the opportunity to generate $5.7 billion in output in the automotive market and industrial applications in 2026, and may have a 21% annual compound growth rate from 2020 to 2026 (Figure 1). In 2020, ADAS only accounted for 1.5% of LiDAR applications in the automotive and industrial LiDAR markets, but by 2026, it is expected that the proportion of ADAS will increase to 41%.

LiADR market forecast (Source: Yole)

Therefore, Yole estimates that the CAGR of LiDAR applications in ADAS may reach 111% between 2020 and 2026, forming a market of US$2.3 billion. At the same time, although the market growth of self-driving cars, including self-driving taxis and self-driving shuttles, is not as amazing, it still plays an important role in affecting the number of LiDAR applications. The self-driving car market is expected to reach 575 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 33% between 2020 and 2026.

In the industrial market, smart infrastructure and logistics will also grow significantly. In 2026, the market for smart infrastructure LiDAR will reach US$395 million, with a compound growth rate of 35% from 2020 to 2026. The logistics LiDAR market has the opportunity to grow by 23% from 2020 to 2026, creating a market size of US$466 million. In the smart construction market, the application of smart cities is the focus of observation. Security monitoring, highway monitors and automatic checkout are also important application projects. In logistics, the growth of self-driving trucks and delivery robots is expected to be the most obvious.

Yole's report "LiDAR for Automotive & Industrial Applications. With this 2021 edition" this year pointed out that market analysts have increased their attention to the supply chain, industrial applications and software/computing of key ADAS and LiDAR manufacturers. When 3D technology LiDAR came out in 2005, more than 80 new LiDAR manufacturers were established in the market. Most manufacturers invested in new LiDAR technologies, bringing technological diversity to the LiDAR field.

Pierrick Boulay, senior technology and market analyst for solid-state lighting and lighting systems at Yole, believes that although there are many technologies related to LiDAR, the most traditional technology is still the technology with the most Design Wins in the automotive field (Figure 2). Taking the wavelength of LiDAR as an example, 1550mm is safer for human eyes than 905mm, and there is a chance to integrate it through the silicon platform. However, 905mm is still the technology with 65% Design Wins in the automotive industry.

In terms of imaging, traditional mechanical scanning has 69% of Design Wins. Therefore, although MEMS micro-mirrors and Flash LiDAR have also entered the automotive market, their current application accounts for a small proportion.

LiDAR Design Wins (Source: Yole)