The overall growth of national electricity demand has slowed down, and the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and residents has increased rapidly

On June 29, State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd. released the first batch of basic research annual reports in 2019, which comprehensively analyzed and summarized the international and domestic economic operations, national and regional power consumption, power supply, and power supply and demand in 2018. Among them, the "China Power Supply and Demand Analysis Report" analyzed and predicted the national and regional economic, power demand, power supply, and power supply and demand situation in 2019 based on an in-depth analysis of the main influencing factors such as macroeconomic control policies, Sino-US economic and trade frictions, three major demands, and key industries. The key contents of the report are now extracted for readers.

Summary of the characteristics of my country's electricity supply and demand in 2018

1. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society has increased significantly, reaching a seven-year high

In 2018, my country's total electricity consumption was 6.84 trillion kWh, up 8.5% year-on-year. The growth rate increased by 1.9 percentage points over the previous year, reaching a new high since 2012.

2. The steady improvement of the economy and the acceleration of electricity substitution are the main reasons for the increase in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society

The reasons for the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society in 2018 are as follows: First, the supply-side structural reform has achieved remarkable results and new momentum has grown rapidly. Economic growth has driven the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society by 4.9 percentage points, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the previous year. Second, the breadth and depth of electricity substitution have continued to increase, driving the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society by 2.4 percentage points, an increase of 0.3 percentage points. Third, the temperature factor has driven the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society by 1.2 percentage points, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points.

3. The secondary industry is the main driving force for the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society, while the tertiary industry and residents' daily life are stable supports.

In 2018, electricity consumption in the three industries and residents' daily life increased by 9.8%, 7.2%, 12.7% and 10.4% respectively compared with the previous year. The contribution rate of electricity consumption growth in the secondary industry to the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society reached 59.0%, while the contribution rate of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry and residents' daily life reached 22.8% and 17.0% respectively. The proportion of electricity consumption in the three industries and residents' daily life was 1.1:69.0:15.8:14.1.

4. The growth rate of electricity consumption in high-energy-consuming industries has rebounded, with the increase mainly coming from the ferrous metal industry

In 2018, the total electricity consumption of the four high-energy-consuming industries increased by 6.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. Among them, the electricity consumption of the ferrous metal industry increased by 9.8%, an increase of 8.5 percentage points. The electricity consumption of the non-ferrous metal industry increased by 5.7%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points. The electricity consumption of the chemical industry increased by 2.6%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points. The electricity consumption of the building materials industry increased by 5.8%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points. The contribution rates were 44%, 28%, 10%, and 18% respectively.

5. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the northwest region has declined, while the growth rate of electricity consumption in other regions has increased to varying degrees

In 2018, electricity consumption in North China (including western Inner Mongolia), East China, Central China, Northeast China (including eastern Inner Mongolia), Northwest China, Southwest China, and Southern China increased by 9.6%, 7.2%, 9.5%, 6.4%, 7.9%, 11.8%, and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with growth rates changing by 4.3, 0.5, 3.0, 1.8, -2.1, 5.9, and 1.0 percentage points, respectively. The increase in electricity consumption in the whole society mainly came from the North China, East China, and Southern China power grids, with a total contribution rate of 64.3%.

6. New installed capacity has decreased, and the proportion of non-fossil energy installed capacity has increased significantly

In 2018, the country's newly added power generation equipment capacity was 120 million kilowatts, a decrease of 3.1% over the previous year. By the end of 2018, the country's total installed capacity reached 1.9 billion kilowatts, and the proportion of non-fossil energy installed capacity reached 39.8%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points over the previous year.

7. The utilization hours of all types of power generation equipment have increased, among which wind power and thermal power have increased the most.

In 2018, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants with a capacity of 6,000 kilowatts and above nationwide was 3,862 hours, up 73 hours from the previous year. Among them, the average utilization hours of hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, wind power and solar power generation equipment increased by 16 hours, 142 hours, 95 hours, 146 hours and 7 hours respectively.

8. The situation of clean energy consumption has improved, and the rates of wind and solar power abandonment have both decreased.

In 2018, renewable energy accounted for 26.7% of total power generation, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year. The amount of abandoned hydropower was 69.1 billion kWh, and the national average hydropower utilization rate reached about 95% under the condition that the water supply was better than the previous year; the amount of abandoned wind power was 27.7 billion kWh, and the abandonment rate was 7%, down 5 percentage points from the previous year; the amount of abandoned photovoltaic power generation in the country decreased by 1.8 billion kWh year-on-year, and the abandonment rate decreased by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, achieving a "double reduction" in the amount of abandoned photovoltaic power generation and the abandonment rate.

9. The overall national electricity supply and demand is balanced, but some areas experience power shortages during peak hours.

In 2018, the national power supply and demand situation changed from the overall looseness in previous years to an overall balance. Among them, the power supply and demand in the North China, East China, Central China and Southwest China power grids were generally balanced, with some provinces experiencing local and periodic power supply shortages; the power supply and demand in the Southern Power Grid region was more than balanced; and the power supply in the Northeast and Northwest power grids was in surplus.

Main factors affecting electricity supply and demand in 2019

1. Global economic growth slows

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.3% in 2019, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from 2018, of which developed countries will grow by 1.8% and emerging economies will grow by 4.4%. First, factors such as escalating trade tensions, increased tariffs, declining business confidence, and tightening financial environment have all dragged down global economic growth; second, uncertainties such as Brexit, political risks in European elections, and geopolitical disputes in the Middle East and East Asia still exist.

2. The escalation of Sino-US economic and trade frictions has affected my country's economic and electricity consumption growth to a certain extent

In the fourth quarter of 2018, the negative impact of Sino-US trade frictions on my country's US-related export enterprises has begun to emerge, among which the eastern coastal areas have been more significantly affected. In 2019, the negative impact of Sino-US trade frictions on US-related export enterprises continued to expand. From January to May 2019, the electricity consumption of US-related export enterprises increased by 2.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 7.9 percentage points year-on-year. By region, from January to May, the growth rates of electricity consumption of US-related export enterprises in the eastern coastal areas and other regions were -0.5% and 7.2%, respectively, down 9.5 and 5.3 percentage points year-on-year, respectively.

3. my country's economic growth rate is stabilizing, and the supporting role of domestic demand for economic growth will become more obvious

Taking into account factors such as Sino-US economic and trade frictions and my country's countercyclical regulatory policies, the annual GDP growth rate is expected to be around 6.2%.

4. Energy transformation is accelerating, and the power substitution efforts are further strengthened

Air pollution prevention and control, rural electrification, and the "coal to electricity" project in northern China have all been continuously promoted. It is estimated that in 2019, the country will complete 163 billion kWh of electricity replacement, driving a 2.4% increase in electricity consumption in the whole society.

5. This summer, the temperature in most parts of the country is high, and precipitation is "more in the south and less in the north", and the electricity consumption for cooling and heating continues to grow throughout the year

The National Climate Center predicts that the temperature in most parts of the country will be generally higher this summer; the water supply in the country is "more in the south and less in the north", and the humid weather caused by staggered precipitation may aggravate the feeling of heat. Considering that the temperature this winter is similar to that of normal years, it is estimated that the annual cooling and heating electricity consumption will be about 405.5 billion kWh, an increase of 55 billion kWh over the previous year, driving the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society by 0.8%; if there is a large-scale and long-term extreme high temperature, it is estimated that the cooling and heating electricity consumption will increase by 107.5 billion kWh over the previous year, driving the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society by 1.5%.