The overall growth of national electricity demand has slowed down, and the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and residents has increased rapidly

Forecast of my country's electricity supply and demand in 2019

1. The growth of my country's electricity demand is slowing down, and the growth rate is most likely to be in the range of 5% to 6%.

It is estimated that the national electricity consumption will reach 7.28 trillion to 7.41 trillion kWh in 2019, an increase of 5% to 7% over the previous year. The Sino-US trade friction is the biggest uncertainty factor affecting electricity demand. If the Sino-US trade friction remains the same, my country maintains the current counter-cyclical regulation, and the summer temperature is higher than usual, the electricity consumption is expected to be 7.34 trillion kWh, an increase of about 6%.

In the second quarter, affected by the escalation of Sino-US economic and trade frictions, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society is expected to drop to 4.7%. In the third and fourth quarters, the effects of counter-cyclical regulation policies continued to emerge, and coupled with the lower base of the same period last year, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society is expected to rebound to 6.7% and 6.9% respectively. The growth rates in the four quarters slowed down by 4.3, 4.3, 1.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year.

2. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry slowed down significantly, while electricity consumption in the tertiary industry and residents' daily life maintained rapid growth

Affected by factors such as the accelerated advancement of the rural revitalization strategy, the key period of poverty alleviation, and the gradual emergence of dividends from a new round of rural power grid transformation and upgrading projects, electricity consumption in the primary industry maintained rapid growth, with an estimated growth rate of about 8.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous year; dragged down by weak growth in domestic and foreign demand, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the manufacturing industry has declined, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry has slowed significantly, with an estimated growth rate of 3.9%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous year.

Affected by factors such as the continuous improvement of people's living standards, extreme temperatures, response to haze and clean heating, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and residents continued to grow. It is expected that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry will be 11.5%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous year; the growth rate of electricity consumption in residents' lives will be 10.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year.

3. The growth of electricity consumption in energy-intensive industries is slow, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the ferrous metal industry has dropped sharply

Due to factors such as tightening environmental protection constraints, the continuation of the overcapacity reduction policy and the high base last year, electricity consumption in the four major energy-intensive industries is expected to grow by about 3.3% in 2019.

Affected by factors such as the slowdown in demand-side growth and the effectiveness of the cleanup of substandard steel, electricity consumption in the ferrous metal industry is expected to grow by around 3.0%.

Affected by factors such as the complex international trade situation and sluggish downstream consumption, electricity consumption in the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to increase by about 2.5%.

Affected by the downward trend in industry prosperity and product differentiation, the chemical industry's electricity consumption is expected to grow by about 3.5%.

Affected by factors such as the significant decline in the growth rate of infrastructure investment and industry self-discipline, electricity consumption in the building materials industry is expected to increase by about 4.9%.

4. The growth rate of electricity consumption in all regions has declined. North China, East China and the Southern Power Grid are the main regions driving the growth of national electricity consumption.

It is estimated that in 2019, the electricity consumption in North China (including western Inner Mongolia), East China, Central China, Northeast China, Northwest China, Southwest China and Southern China will increase by 6.1%, 5.4%, 6.2%, 4.7%, 6.0%, 8.0% and 6.5% respectively compared with the previous year. The contribution rates of electricity consumption growth in North China, East China and Southern China are 24.5%, 21.7% and 18.0% respectively.

5. Newly installed power generation capacity remains large

In 2019, the country's newly installed capacity is expected to be 110 million kilowatts, a decrease of 9.9% from the previous year. Among them, thermal power is 45 million kilowatts, hydropower is 7.1 million kilowatts, nuclear power is 5.27 million kilowatts, wind power is 28 million kilowatts, and solar power generation is 25 million kilowatts. Compared with the newly added capacity of the previous year, solar power, nuclear power, and hydropower increased by 20.21 million, 3.57 million, and 1.57 million kilowatts respectively, while wind power and thermal power installed capacity increased by 6.99 million and 6.28 million kilowatts respectively.

6. The proportion of non-fossil energy installed capacity will further increase

By the end of 2019, the national installed power generation capacity is expected to reach 2.01 billion kilowatts, an increase of 5.8% over the previous year. Among them, hydropower is 360 million kilowatts, thermal power is 1.19 billion kilowatts, nuclear power is 49.93 million kilowatts, wind power is 210 million kilowatts, and solar power is 200 million kilowatts. The installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation is 820 million kilowatts, accounting for 40.9% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the previous year.

7. The number of hours of thermal power equipment utilization remained basically the same as last year

In 2019, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide are expected to be around 3,810 hours, a decrease of 53 hours from the previous year. Among them, the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment are around 4,375 hours, basically the same as the previous year.

8. The overall national electricity supply and demand is balanced, but power supply is tight in some areas during peak hours.

In 2019, considering that the newly installed power generation capacity will remain large, the hydropower output and coal supply are normal, and the power load is growing, it is expected that my country's power supply and demand will be balanced overall, but the supply will be tight during peak hours in some regions. In terms of regions, the power supply and demand of the North China and Central China power grids are tight; the power supply and demand of the Southwest power grid is tight; the power supply and demand of the East China power grid is balanced; the power supply and demand of the Southern Power Grid is more than balanced; and the power supply of the Northeast and Northwest power grids is surplus.

(Author unit: State Grid Energy Research Institute)