Smart watches will take over from TWS and become the next hot-selling product. How should the semiconductor supply chain exert its strength?
Smartwatch industry grows rapidly, Apple Watch leads the market, supply chain takes the lead
After 2012, smart watches have experienced rapid growth, with major manufacturers launching their own watch brands, including Sony smart watch, Apple Watch, Samsung Galaxy Gear, Motorola Moto 360, LGG Watch, etc. Major mainstream brands have gradually gained momentum, forming a pattern of one super and many strong brands.
From the perspective of all categories around the world, in 2017-2018, the global smartwatch shipments, Apple Watch continues to dominate the list , with a market share of 43% and 37% in 2017-2018, followed by BBK's Little Genius, with a market share of 10% and 10% respectively, followed by Samsung watches.
From the perspective of brand manufacturers and supply chains, we have observed that next year will enter a phase of intensive shipments. Brand manufacturers will launch smart watches with eSim in batches, the number of supply chain manufacturers for mainstream manufacturers will increase, and RF transmission chip companies will increase their product layout next year.
The value reaches 1/3 of mobile phones and is expected to become a standard product of TWS
Smart watches have a large single-machine value and are expected to become an important product to drive the growth of the industry. This year's TWS market tells us that accessories with a unit price of nearly 2,000 have already had a strong consumer motivation, not to mention host-type products that can run alone. Judging from the use of Apple Watch with eSim and Airpods, it is expected to create a new era of consumer usage habits.
In terms of value, compared with Apple Watch S5 and iPhone 11 pro Max, the BOM costs are US$145.45 and US$490.5 respectively, and the value of the watch is 1/3 of that of the mobile phone.
In terms of the speed of value increase, the value of the Apple Watch launched in 2015 was $83.70, and the value of the Apple Watch S5 increased by 73.78%; during the same period, the value of the iPhone 6s Plus and iPhone 11 pro Max increased from $236 to $490.5, an increase of 107.84%. It is expected that with the adoption of new sensors, the value of a single device and the ability to accumulate data will continue to increase in the future.
Analysis of chip industry potential : We expect the smartwatch market next year to replicate this year's TWS and fully enhance the profit level of supply chain companies, especially the finished product link with the largest output value increase, such as Wingtech Technology, Goertek, Luxshare Precision, and Foxconn Industrial Internet. Supply chain companies will make great achievements in the field of smartphone chips.
Risk warning : The popularity of smart watches is lower than expected, the brand promotion is lower than expected, the application of smart watches is lower than
Different from traditional electronic watches, smart watches have various electronic components integrated inside to bring them rich functions. Smart watches can be divided into watch body and watch strap; in detail, the watch can be divided into sensors, chips, batteries, touch screens, displays, watch body and watch strap.
Let’s take Apple Watch series 5 and BBK’s Little Genius Z5 as examples:
Xiaotiancai Z5 watch: It has a 5-megapixel wide-angle camera, supports high-definition video calls and voice photography, swimming-grade waterproof, 4G full network access, overseas call positioning, nine-layer AI positioning, ultra-large ultra-clear AMOLED screen and other industry-leading or unique features, some of which are even several steps ahead, such as swimming-grade waterproof technology.
Image source: New Technology Explosion, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
Swimming-level waterproof principle:
(1) Highly waterproof speakers; (2) Waterproof sound-transmitting membrane, air pressure equalizing membrane, and reinforcement sheet (to withstand high water pressure); (3) Double-layer waterproof soft glue for SIM card; (4) Adhesive that can withstand high water pressure is used between structural parts; (5) The camera and the outer shell must be able to withstand high water pressure + waterproof.
In summary, the Xiaotiancai Watch Z5 is waterproof in its selection of components and materials, and also takes into account the high water pressure caused by swimming, using adhesives and fixings to prevent the penetration of high water pressure.
The principle of swimming-grade waterproofness of Xiaotiancai watch
Image source: New Technology Explosion, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
The Xiaotiancai Z5 watch
has a complete range of chips and is more integrated
, such as a Bluetooth + WiFi two-in-one
chip
, a 2g RF chip + a multi-way switch chip, and a large module integrating RF transceiver + GPS. The two largest chips, the CPU + flash chip of Qualcomm Snapdragon Wear 2100, use the POP stacked packaging used by existing international flagship mobile phones.
Image source: New Technology Explosion, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
Apple Watch Series 5 can be generally divided into screen, strap, chip, battery, sensor, etc. According to the BOM table of Apple Watch Series 5, the estimated price of the whole machine is $145.45, and the main control chip accounts for about 46% of the price of the whole machine . The main chips used are Apple's self-developed chips. Compared with the previous generation, the main upgrade is the screen, which uses a 1.57-inch LTPO OLED Retina display.
Apple Watch Series 5 BOM
Source: Jiwei.com, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
In terms of battery, the fifth generation Apple Watch has a 10% improvement over the Series 4 with a relatively small change in volume,
extending battery life to the maximum extent without sacrificing space. This is mainly due to the "Efficient Battery Pouch" patent Apple applied for in 2015. The patent uses a new type of metal and packaging method to seal the battery instead of the traditional aluminum foil bag, making the battery more sealed and fully utilizing the internal space of the device. At the same time, the metal shell makes the battery physically stronger and has a lower safety risk during maintenance.
Image source:
IFIXIT, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
Taptic-Engine is the name of a new vibration module launched by Apple products. Its working principle is that a linear motor drives the vibration block to make a straight line reciprocating motion. This module first appeared in the first Apple Watch and was later used in the iPhone series of products.
The Taptic Engine vibration module provides Force Touch and 3DTouch. Different screen operations can produce different vibration tactile effects.
In Apple Watch, Taptic Engine is the relay of the device notification system, strengthening the sound reminder and bringing users a rich sensory experience. At the same time, by providing situational vibration feedback, Apple Watch can replicate clicks or heartbeats, and the effect will be enhanced when combined with the digital crown.
Source: IFIXIT, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
From the outside, the fifth-generation Apple Watch LTPO display is similar to the fourth-generation, but in the S5, at least a new display driver and power management IC are added to support the all-weather display function, which keeps the display always on by using energy more efficiently.
Source:
IFIXIT, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
The displays of Apple Watch S4 and S5 both have LTPO technology. LTPO, which stands for Low Temperature Polycrystalline Oxide in Chinese, consists of low temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS) thin film transistors (TFT) and oxide TFT, the latter of which includes IGZO (Indium Gallium Zinc Oxide) TFT.
Source:
IFIXIT, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
The LTPO solution has a faster response speed and lower power consumption, which is manifested in higher charge mobility, faster pixel response, and fewer assembly steps and power consumption than the former.
The S5 has an always-on screen feature. The battery life of the S5 is the same as that of the S4. The refresh rate of the watch when it is not active is adjusted through the power management IC and display driver, which becomes the key to energy saving. When the watch is inactive, the Apple Watch reduces the refresh rate from 60Hz to 1Hz. The new low-power driver, ultra-efficient power management and new ambient light sensor allow the watch to have 18 hours of power from morning to night while the display remains on.
Source: IFIXIT, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
In general, through the splitting of Xiaotiancai Z5 and Apple Watch Series 5, we can see that the small size integrates a large number of ICs, such as RF, Bluetooth, WiFi, power management chips, etc., as well as sensors, accelerometers and other components, and the manufacturers of the components are from well-known manufacturers; as the integration of smart watches becomes higher and higher, the functions are gradually being improved, and the demand for the supply chain is gradually expanding, and a complete industrial chain and value chain will be formed in the future.
Apple Watch S5 mainboard front IC
Source: eWiseTech, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
Apple Watch S5 motherboard back IC
Source: eWiseTech, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
The main competitors of smart watches can be divided into mobile phone brand manufacturers, traditional outdoor sports equipment manufacturers and wearable equipment manufacturers. Among them, mobile phone brands are mainly Apple, Samsung and Huawei; outdoor sports equipment manufacturers are represented by Suunto and Garmin, and wearable equipment manufacturers are represented by Huami and Fitbit.
Source: Strategy Analytics, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
In terms of sales, Apple has become the leader in the smartwatch market. According to a report released by Strategy Analytics, global smartwatch shipments reached 14.2 million units in the third quarter of 2019, a year-on-year increase of 42%. Among them, Apple Watch maintained the first place with a market share of 47.9%, Samsung ranked second, and Fitbit remained in third place. Overall, global smartwatch sales maintained rapid growth, up 42% year-on-year.
Smart watches equipped with independent 4G will gradually develop as operators advance their eSim business. 4G not only supplements the call scenarios of smart watches , but also provides convenience for instant data transmission for ecological services based on multiple scenarios such as sports, health, and life. Smart watches equipped with voice assistants will become a new terminal device combination in the scenario of "needing to free your hands" with the cooperation of smart wireless headset products.
The TWS market size is growing rapidly. Before the release of Apple's AirPods in 2017, TWS headphones had a very small market share. According to GFK data, the shipment volume of wireless headphones in 2016 was only 9.18 million units, and the market size was less than US$30 million. In 2018, the market size exceeded US$5 billion. It is estimated that by 2020, the market size of wireless headphones will reach US$11 billion, and the market size of the entire smart headphone market will exceed US$19.5 billion.
The combination of watch + earphones can bring users quick operation and portable experience, especially in scenes where it is inconvenient to use . In addition, the linkage between watch and earphones, diversified and fragmented networking methods, breaks the monopoly of mobile phones on all networking time, and can alleviate the digital anxiety caused by mobile phones to a certain extent.
With the popularization of new mobile communication technologies such as eSIM one number for multiple terminals and future 5G commercial use, the cost of independent communication for users on AI wearables has been significantly reduced. AI wearables, especially the "wrist + ear" combination of smart watches and smart headphones, will truly replace smartphones and become one of the most important Internet terminals in people's lives.
02
High prosperity leads to tight production capacity, and new suppliers are added to expand production
As the leader of smart watches, Apple has a market share of nearly 50%. Since the release of the original model in 2015, Quanta has been the main manufacturer of Apple Watch. In the second half of 2018, Quanta has been producing the new generation of smart watches, Apple Watch 4, at full capacity, but it is still in short supply. For this reason, Compal was later added as its new supplier; Apple Watch supplier Compal expanded its factory in Chongqing, China in June last year and is expected to start production in the second half of this year to fully sprint for wearable device orders.
Compal's non-PC shipments grew strongly last year, with one of the main driving forces being Apple Watch orders from Apple, but production capacity is still insufficient. Due to the rapid growth of Apple Watch, Luxshare and Foxconn will be added this year. Smartwatch sales have achieved rapid growth, with the market size increasing from 1 billion yuan in 2014 to 18.3 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 106.83%. In 2019Q1-Q3, the year-on-year growth rates of smartwatch sales were 48%, 44% and 42% respectively, maintaining a high growth .
Source: China Industry Information Network, TrendForce, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
In the past, Apple Watch shipments were small, so maintaining one or two foundries was a reasonable strategy. In Q2 2019, Apple Watch’s second-quarter revenue set a historical record, with more than 75% of Apple Watch buyers in that quarter making their first purchase.
(1) As Apple Watch shipments continue to grow rapidly, it is necessary to introduce new foundries to increase production capacity, so it intends to introduce Luxshare and Foxconn as the third and fourth generation foundries.
(2) In terms of display screens, Apple Watch displays have been mainly supplied by LG in the past. This year, JDI will be added as a second supplier, and Changxin Technology will be the exclusive supplier of OLED screens to start shipments.
Apple's wearable device OEM factories are currently mainly Taiwanese factories. Apple Watch is mainly produced by Quanta Computer, and the second supplier is Compal. This year, Luxshare and Foxconn were added to prepare production capacity for the subsequent rapid growth of the smart watch market.
In addition to Apple's orders, Quanta Computer has also won a number of smart watch orders from the Android camp. Quanta Computer is also the leading smart watch OEM in the Android camp. As for Inventec, it is the main OEM factory for Fitbit.
As for component manufacturers, AUO and Innolux focus on flexible AMOLED screens used in smart watches, while RiTong and Wisechip ship PMOLED screens for use in smart watches or other wearable devices.
Source: International Electronic Business Information, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
Smartwatch supply chain components and suppliers
Source: International Electronic Business Information, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
The smartwatch market is growing rapidly, with its value reaching 1/3 of that of mobile phones.
In terms of value, the supply chain involves a large number of chips, including Bluetooth, WiFi, RF chips, power management chips, etc. In addition, it also includes components such as sensors, screens, and touch screens.
Smartwatches have been shipped in large quantities.
Compared with Apple Watch S5 and iPhone 11 pro Max, the BOM costs are $145.45 and $490.5 respectively
, and the value of watches reaches 1/3 of that of mobile phones.
In terms of the speed of value increase, the value of Apple Watch launched in 2015 was US$83.70, and the value of Apple Watch S5 increased by 73.78%; during the same period, the value of iPhone 6s Plus and iPhone 11 pro Max increased from US$236 to US$490.5, an increase of 107.84%.
Overall, the value of smart watches and smart phones is increasing rapidly. Due to the small size of watches, the demand for high-value screens (US$66.5) and cameras (US$73.5) is relatively small, so the value growth rate is relatively slow. Overall, we believe that the value of smart watches is showing a rapid growth trend, the value of the supply chain is increasing rapidly, and the supply chain has benefited significantly; taking USI as an example, the rapid growth in sales of Apple watches is the main .
SiP packaging has been used in Apple Watch before. In addition to watches, the number of SiP in smartphones is also increasing. Smartphones are becoming thinner and lighter, 5G, and wearable products such as Apple Watch all require electronic products to be lighter and lighter, and SiP packaging is an important technology to achieve this trend. SiP technology has a high process barrier.
As the exclusive supplier of Apple Watch, USI Electronics is a technological leader in this field.
Source: Yifei.com, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
In 2018, the growth of USI was mainly
related to Apple Watch.
For USI, its consumer electronics
revenue
reached 40% of the total revenue, accounting for a large proportion and one of the main driving forces for the company's development. The company's substantial increase in consumer electronics revenue in the third quarter of 2018 was related to the substantial increase in shipments of the new Apple Watch S4, and the SiP packaging and module assembly foundry business of Apple Watch is exclusively owned by USI.
At the end of the second quarter of 2014, Apple Watch's SiP substrate shipments were 2.5-3 million units, and in the third quarter it expanded to 14-15 million units. Shipments have grown dramatically in recent years. In the first quarter of 2019, USI's revenue increased by 23.27%, mainly benefiting from the rapid growth in Apple Watch sales.
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