Analysis of the value of the five major concept stocks in the integrated circuit sector

Latest update time：2021-09-07 06:17

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Great Wall Computer: In ancient times, the Great Wall protected sovereignty; today, the Great Wall protects safety

Category: Company Research Institution: Great Wall Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Zhou Weijia Date: 2015-02-11

Under the background of the great leap forward of the national information security industry, domestic manufacturers are facing huge development opportunities. With more than ten years of technological accumulation, relying on its own strong R&D and manufacturing capabilities, and with the strong support of China Electronics Group, Great Wall Computer is likely to rise again and become a mainstream manufacturer of information security. It is covered for the first time and given a "recommended" rating.

The information security wave is coming. According to the latest data released by Gartner, the global server shipments reached 2.53 million units in the third quarter of 2014, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 1%. However, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic server market shipments reached 15.63%, which is 15 times the growth rate of the global market, becoming the driving force of global growth. After the "Prism Gate" incident, the advantages of local brands in the Chinese server market have gradually emerged, and the share of local brand servers has gradually increased.

The company has entered the field of information security since 2000. Relying on its strong R&D and manufacturing capabilities and insisting on independent innovation, it currently has the independent R&D, design and manufacturing capabilities of secure computer motherboards and complete machines, and has mastered core technologies in multiple fields such as trusted computing, secure storage, computer bottom-level security protection, virtualization, etc., laying a solid foundation for realizing information security.

CEC is strong and provides solid support. CEC is a leading domestic provider of self-controlled software and hardware products and information security services. It has a controllable software industry chain from operating systems, middleware, databases, security products to application systems, and has formed a full life cycle information security service system from security consulting, system integration, security operation and maintenance. The group can provide strong support for the development of Great Wall Computer in the field of information security.

The existing main business is developing steadily and has great potential. From the perspective of the whole year, the company's operating efficiency has gradually improved since the second quarter. Since 2014, the company has started to invest in the construction of photovoltaic power stations and actively digest the inverter production capacity. The company's high-end power supply business has good profitability. The important subsidiary AOC Technology turned losses into profits in the third quarter. In addition, it is expected that the company's "China Power Great Wall Building" project will create 2 billion profits.

The market value is relatively small, so it is recommended to buy and invest. Compared with other information security companies, the company's market value is relatively small. The company is currently on the eve of change. Based on the company's existing business development, we estimate the company's EPS for 2014/2015/2016 to be 0.04/0.06/0.09 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 170/117/80 times.

Considering that the company's market value has not yet included expectations for its future development in the field of information security, there is still a lot of room for upward movement. We give it a "recommended" rating for the first time coverage.

Risk warning: The domestic server market expansion is lower than expected, and the company's server business progress is lower than expected

Tongfang Guoxin: Smart card and special IC design Leading enterprise

Category: Company Research Institution: Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Dong Ruibin, Chen Ping Date: 2015-02-15

Semiconductor industry macro environment: strong government support and rapid market expansion. (1) The state's support for the semiconductor industry will effectively promote the development of the entire industry. Specifically, it includes support for market space and industrial funds. The most obvious example is that all second-generation ID cards use domestic chips and a 120 billion yuan semiconductor industry fund has been established; (2) China's semiconductor market is developing rapidly, and the expansion of external demand will effectively stimulate the growth of the domestic semiconductor industry; (3) The company is a high-quality domestic chip design company, and we are optimistic about the company's development prospects under the background of government support and the rapid growth of the domestic semiconductor market.

Master the core competitive barriers in the chip design link: strong R&D capabilities and relevant product supplier qualifications. (1) The traditional core competitiveness of chip design companies includes market strategy and R&D capabilities; (2) The key to R&D capabilities lies in professional design talents. At present, domestic chip design companies are seriously lacking in talents, while Tongfang Guoxin has relatively leading R&D team resources in the industry; (3) From the perspective of the smart card and military markets, they mainly involve monopoly industries, and market strategy is relatively unimportant. The key lies in obtaining supplier qualifications; (4) The company's government background is integrated with the scientific research strength of universities, and it has won many supplier qualifications in the field of military special integrated circuits and smart card chips.

From the specific focus, we are optimistic about the localization of smart card chips and military FPGAs in the short term, and optimistic about the military-to-civilian market of the company's smart card-related smart terminal chips and programmable devices in the long term. (1) In the short term: We are optimistic about the localization of financial IC cards and SWP-SIM card chips, as well as the growth in shipments of 4G SIM cards, resident health cards, and second-generation resident ID card chips; at the same time, military special integrated circuits benefit from the policy promotion of military informatization construction and independent and controllable military procurement, and are expected to maintain rapid growth; (2) In the long term, the market for smart terminal chips (such as POS machines, etc.) related to smart cards, power devices , and the military-to-civilian market of programmable devices have greater potential.

We give an "overweight" rating. We estimate that Tongfang Guoxin's sales revenue in 2015-2017 will be 1.521 billion/1.898 billion/2.438 billion yuan, and the corresponding net profit will be 426 million/499 million/638 million yuan, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.70/0.82/1.05 yuan. We use the divisional valuation method to give the company a 12-month target price of 36.26 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 51.8 times in 2015 and a market value of 22 billion yuan. We give an "overweight" rating.

Major uncertainties: Valuation errors caused by the opacity of SMIC's military product business.

Sevenstar Electronics: Revenue growth of equipment products sends a positive signal

Category: Company Research Institution: Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Wu Na Date: 2015-03-12

Report Summary:

Performance declined severely, lower than market expectations. In 2014, the company achieved operating income of 962 million yuan, an increase of 11.89% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 41.87 million yuan, a decrease of 59.38% over the previous year; basic earnings per share was 0.12 yuan. The main reason for the decline in net profit was the decline in gross profit of equipment products and the increase in management expenses due to the completion of major special projects.

The equipment business has reached a turning point and is expected to continue to grow. Benefiting from the growth in revenue from photovoltaic equipment and TFT equipment, the equipment products achieved revenue of 464 million yuan in 2014, a year-on-year increase of 23.68%. Since 2014, the photovoltaic industry has begun to pick up, the investment scale of the domestic integrated circuit , TFT and lithium battery industries has expanded, and the market demand for related equipment has increased, creating a good market environment for the company's equipment products. We believe that with the increase in sales, the gross profit margin of equipment products is expected to improve.

Electronic components The business has grown steadily. Thanks to the support of the localization policy of military electronic components in recent years and the gradual launch of the company's new component research and development results in the market, the scale of product sales has expanded, and the electronic components products achieved revenue of 416 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.72%. Among them, the proportion of military product revenue in electronic components revenue reached 73.83%, which was 307 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.09%.

As a leading semiconductor equipment company, it has long benefited from policy support and domestic market demand. Under the favorable conditions of domestic market demand and strong government support, the focus of the integrated circuit and flat panel display industries is shifting to the mainland, providing good development opportunities for equipment companies. In 2014, the import value of single crystal equipment, FPD equipment and semiconductor equipment in the mainland was US$571 million, US$2.991 billion and US$4.443 billion respectively. The advanced equipment developed by the company has broken the long-term monopoly of foreign manufacturers and is expected to gradually replace foreign equipment and become an important supplier in the domestic market.

Earnings forecast: The company's revenue is expected to be 1.126 billion yuan, 1.310 billion yuan, and 1.519 billion yuan in 2015, 2016, and 2017, with EPS of 0.26 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.37 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a dynamic PE of 109 times, 88 times, and 75 times respectively.

Considering the company's industry position and long-term investment value, we maintain the "Buy" rating.

Risk warning: 1) The company's equipment business sales continue to be sluggish; 2) The growth of the military electronic components market is lower than expected.

Changdian Technology: Established Chip Intelligence and divested its materials plant

Category: Company Research Institution: Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Qin Yuanyuan, Liu Liang Date: 2015-02-13

Investment Points

On the evening of February 12, Changdian Technology announced that Changdian Technology (51%), Xinchao Group (39%), and Xinzhilian Investment (10%) (Xinchao Group holds 89.5%) jointly invested to establish Xinzhilian, which is engaged in the research and development of new integrated circuit advanced packaging and testing technologies; the research and development, production, and sales of integrated circuit advanced packaging and testing materials.

Comments:

Divesting the material plant will help accelerate the industrialization of MIS substrates: Divesting the material plant will help accelerate the pace of industrialization of MIS substrates, achieve economies of scale and realize profitability as soon as possible. At the same time, since it is still in a loss-making state, the divestiture will have a positive impact on the performance of the listed company.

We are optimistic about the company's potential to become a global leader and reiterate the logic of the recommendation: 2014 is the year of the company's comprehensive layout. The cooperation with SMIC and the strong combination of the industrial chain shocked the Taiwanese industry; the company achieved the turning point of performance and entered the upward channel; completed the additional issuance and expansion of high-end packaging; acquired STATS ChipPAC, obtained first-class technology and customers, and jumped to the third place in the world. The focus of 2015 is on the integration of STATS ChipPAC. We are full of confidence in this. When the integration is effective, Changdian will take off again. Backed by the Chinese market, after the integration with STATS, the technology and customers will complement and cooperate, and will have global competitiveness. China is also creating a good external environment for the birth of world-class semiconductor companies, with strong support from national policies, the rise of terminal brands, and the overall strengthening of the semiconductor industry chain. With the right time, right place and right people, we believe that the company has the courage and potential to impact the world's No. 1.

Earnings forecast and investment advice: As detailed financial information has not yet been announced and the acquisition has not been fully completed, it will not be included in the consolidation of STATS ChipPAC for the time being. We maintain the company's earnings per share forecast of 0.16, 0.44 and 0.56 yuan for 2014-2016, and maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk warning: downstream demand is lower than expected; short-term impact of acquisition costs on performance; acquisition integration is lower than expected.

Tongfu Microelectronics: Performance has reached a turning point, and the long-term development trend is positive

Category: Company Research Institution: Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Liu Xiang, Liu Xun Date: 2015-03-16

matter:

Recently, we conducted a survey of Tongfu Microelectronics and had a full exchange with the company's secretary on the production and operation status of the company's various businesses.

Comment:

Core Viewpoint

China's integrated circuit industry is in the superposition and resonance of the industry's rising cycle and the national policy support cycle, and the economy will be prosperous in the next 3-5 years. From the perspective of the industrial chain, packaging and testing is the link with the smallest technological gap between China's integrated circuit field and foreign countries, and is expected to be the first to make a breakthrough. Against the background of the great development of the national integrated circuit industry, the flexibility of the packaging and testing link is also the greatest. As one of the three major packaging and testing manufacturers in China, the company has achieved rapid endogenous growth through the adjustment of product structure and customer structure. In terms of product structure, the proportion of high-pin business (FC/BGA/QFN) with higher profitability continues to increase, driving the company's overall gross profit margin to rise steadily; in terms of customer structure, the company has recently focused on expanding the Taiwan and Korean markets, gradually introducing major customers such as MTK, and growing together with major customers. Driven by the above two major forces, we expect the company's 15-year performance endogenous growth rate to reach about 60%. On the other hand, the company is also actively considering external expansion, with the direction mainly focusing on high-end packaging, and further promoting the adjustment and transformation and upgrading of product structure through external expansion.

In the long run, the company plans to build two production bases with sales revenue of US$1 billion. One is in Nantong. After the completion of this private placement, it is expected to be built in 2 to 3 years, focusing on high-end packaging and testing. The other will be located in the central and western regions, focusing on mid-to-low-end packaging and testing. After the completion of the two major production bases, the company's business layout will be more complete, and it will strive to become a world-class packaging and testing company in 5 to 10 years.

The company has been hidden behind Changdian and Huatian, and the market has not paid much attention to it. We believe that after its high-end packaging process breakthrough, with the continuous introduction of customers, the company's performance will usher in a turning point, and there will be strong certainty in the next two years. The company has a clear long-term development strategy, and its market value is expected to be on par with Changdian and Huatian. We maintain a "buy" rating.

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