SEMI Julong: Equipment, materials and killer applications drive the semiconductor boom in 2018

According to statistics, in the first quarter of this year, global semiconductor revenue reached 111 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 21%. Among them, memory revenue reached 23 billion US dollars, accounting for about 25% of the total semiconductor revenue in the quarter. In addition, the non-memory market in the first quarter was also very impressive. Among them, semiconductor equipment hit a record high, with shipments increasing by 28% in the first quarter.

Ju Long, president of SEMI China and global vice president, said: "Since 2017, semiconductor investment has hit new highs in both plant construction and equipment investment. This year and next year, it will continue to grow, and the pace of plant construction is also accelerating." The fastest growing investment is in semiconductor equipment. According to statistics, in 2017, the total investment in the equipment industry reached US$56 billion, an increase of 38%, and this year's total investment will reach at least US$61 billion.

SEMI released its mid-year forecast at the annual SEMICON West show last month, noting that global sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment are expected to increase 10.8% to $62.7 billion in 2018, surpassing the all-time high of $56.6 billion set in 2017. The equipment market is expected to set another record in 2019, with an expected increase of 7.7% to $67.6 billion.

The SEMI mid-year forecast states that wafer processing equipment will grow 11.7% to $50.8 billion in 2018. The other front-end segment, which consists of fab equipment, wafer manufacturing and mask equipment, is expected to grow 12.3% this year to $2.8 billion. The packaging equipment segment is expected to grow 8.0% to $4.2 billion in 2018, while semiconductor test equipment is expected to grow 3.5% this year to $4.9 billion.

In 2018, South Korea will maintain its position as the largest market for equipment demand for the second consecutive year. China will rise in the rankings, ranking second for the first time, and Taiwan will slip to third place. All countries and regions except Taiwan will see growth. China will lead with a growth rate of 43.5%, followed by the rest of the world (mainly Southeast Asia) at 19.3%, Japan at 32.1%, Europe at 11.6%, North America at 3.8%, and South Korea at 0.1%.

SEMI predicts that equipment sales in China will grow 46.6% to $17.3 billion in 2019. China, South Korea and Taiwan are expected to remain the top three markets in 2019, with China topping the list. South Korea is expected to become the second largest market at $16.3 billion, while Taiwan is expected to achieve $12.3 billion in equipment sales.

In the semiconductor materials market, SEMI statistics show that China's share of the global market increased by more than 12% in 2017, which reflects the improvement of China's production capacity. However, the supply of Chinese domestic material manufacturers only accounts for 5% of the global total. Although there are also domestic material companies that are growing, there is still a big gap with international leading companies.

Ju Long said that looking back at the 40-year history of semiconductor development, we can find that killer applications emerge every 10 years. As smart applications gradually develop in a diversified and diverse direction, AI and 5G will be the driving force for semiconductor growth in the future.

At present, AI has a place in all processors, such as TPU, CPU and GPU. According to the data, the amount of global venture capital invested in the AI ​​industry last year has reached 15 billion US dollars, and the growth rate is very fast. From the perspective of the AI ​​industry chain, Ju Long believes that the most basic is the chip. Whether it is TSMC, Intel or Samsung, they have a lot of R&D investment in CPU and GPU every year.

In addition to traditional processors, many AI companies are also working on ASICs, algorithms, and accelerators. The data they generate is also a huge driving force for the development of the semiconductor industry. It is worth noting that in the ASIC market, the United States is undoubtedly the leader, but China is progressing very fast. At present, many domestic companies have received venture capital, including Cambrian, Horizon Robotics, DeePhi Technology, Unisound, and Bitmain.

Ju Long believes that AI will drive the next wave of development of the semiconductor industry, and chips are an important carrier for achieving AI, because whether it is smart homes, smart phones, smart manufacturing, etc., they all rely on chips.

In order to highlight the importance of international cooperation in the semiconductor industry and implement the Chinese government's determination to reform and open up, the world's largest "International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI)", at the invitation of the organizer China International Import Expo Bureau and relevant departments of Shanghai, worked with the Shanghai Integrated Circuit Industry Association to promote international semiconductor manufacturers to participate in the China International Import Expo and set up an integrated circuit zone.

The advantages of participating in the IC exhibition as a group are as follows: centralized display of advanced technology and international collaboration in the semiconductor industry; attracting the attention and interaction of national leaders; mainstream location, easy and convenient.

Representative companies participating in the exhibition include Applied Materials (AMAT), TEL, ULVAC, Advantest, Schneider, etc. While displaying their products, they will also sign a series of cooperation agreements with well-known domestic users to promote further development of cooperation between the Chinese and foreign semiconductor industries.

The exhibits include semiconductor equipment, semiconductor materials, semiconductor discrete devices and application technologies, semiconductor optoelectronic devices, IC products and application technologies, integrated circuit terminal products, etc.

President Xi Jinping announced at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation that China will hold the China International Import Expo starting from 2018. This Expo is a major move by the Chinese government to firmly support trade liberalization and economic globalization, and will help countries open up economic channels and strengthen economic and trade cooperation.

The expo will be held at the Shanghai National Exhibition and Convention Center from November 5 to 10.

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