Semiconductor equipment giant, what do you think?

Latest update time：2024-02-04

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As we all know, the semiconductor industry is an industry with "cyclical + growth" attributes.

After experiencing the downward cycle in 2023, entering 2024, the semiconductor industry seems to still be facing challenges amid strong expectations of recovery and transition. Manufacturers in the industry have different opinions.

The semiconductor equipment hidden behind it, as the "cornerstone" of the industry, reflects the rise and fall of the market.

In recent times, major semiconductor equipment manufacturers have released their latest financial reports. Let's take a look at the financial performance of these industry giants, as well as their expectations and opinions on the future trend of the industry.

Semiconductor equipment giant, financial report released

ASML: Against the trend, growth exceeds 30%, EUV system is ushering in an explosion

On January 24, lithography machine giant ASML announced its Q4 and full-year financial reports for 2023.

ASML's fourth-quarter revenue reached 7.237 billion euros, with a gross profit margin of approximately 51.4% and a net profit of 2.048 billion euros. Among them, the total revenue of lithography machine systems was 5.7 billion euros, systems for logic chips accounted for 63%, and systems for memory chips accounted for 37%.

It is worth noting that ASML’s new order amount in the fourth quarter was 9.186 billion euros, of which 5.6 billion euros of growth came from EUV lithography machine orders. It can be seen that EUV lithography machines are ushering in explosive development.

ASML President and CEO Peter Wennink pointed out that both revenue and gross profit margin in the fourth quarter of 2023 exceeded expectations. ASML also delivered the first high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet lithography system (High NA EUV) to customers at the end of 2023. )——Part of the components of EXE:5000.

Source: ASML financial report

Looking at the whole year of 2023, ASML's total revenue will reach 27.559 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 30.16%, and the gross profit margin is approximately 51.3%; net profit will be 7.839 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 39.38%, and the annual new order amount will be approximately 20.040 billion. EUR.

ASML annual revenue data

(Source: ASML financial report)

From the product breakdown, we can see that EUV system revenue increased by 30% year-on-year, 53 EUV lithography machines contributed 9.1 billion euros in revenue, and DUV system revenue increased by 60% year-on-year, reaching 12.3 billion euros. Under such revenue performance, ASML still has a huge backlog of orders of 39 billion euros.

ASML Lithography System Revenue Classification

(Source: ASML financial report)

Of ASML's 27.6 billion euros in revenue in 2023, 21.939 billion euros are net sales of lithography systems, of which logic semiconductors account for the largest proportion of 15.985 billion euros. In terms of regional market distribution, the proportion from mainland China is as high as 29%, and this number will only be 14% in 2022. On the premise of an increase in total revenue in 2023, sales of lithography systems from mainland China have still doubled, second only to Taiwan, China at 30%, and surpassing South Korea.

Market sales share of terminal applications

(Source: ASML financial report)

The increase in mainland China's market share is due, on the one hand, to the fact that most of the equipment delivered to the mainland in 2023 is for orders in 2022 and before; on the other hand, the demand for equipment in the Chinese market remains stable after a round of growth.

Regarding the issue of export policy restrictions, ASML stated that because NXE:2000 and later DUV systems will not obtain export licenses, and the export of NXE:1970 and 1980 systems is also restricted for a few specific mainland wafer fabs. It is expected to have an impact of about 10% to 15% on the performance in mainland China in 2024.

However, ASML remains optimistic about revenue from mainland China in 2024, because the demand for mature process nodes remains strong. From this, it seems that mainland China will still become ASML's second or third largest regional customer in 2024.

Although the semiconductor industry is hovering at a trough, ASML still delivered outstanding results.

Talking about the prosperity of the industry, Peter Wennink said: "The semiconductor industry is still at the cyclical bottom, but some positive signals are clearly visible - the inventory level of the industry's end market continues to improve, and the utilization rate of lithography equipment has also begun to increase. In addition, Our strong order growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 also indicates future market demand.

ASML predicts that revenue from logic systems will be lower in 2024 than in 2023. On the contrary, under AI-related demand, DRAM process nodes will continue to advance to support DDR5 and HBM, and the storage market will usher in a wave of recovery.

ASML Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen further said that although it is clear that customers are passing through the trough of the cycle, uncertainty remains, and the trend and speed of market recovery are still unknown. However, the significant improvement in inventory levels in the end market and the nearly 9.2 billion euros in new orders received in the fourth quarter of 2023 are positive signs of good market development.

In addition, ASML also expects to achieve its ambition of gross profit margin of 54% to 56% in 2025, when the new High NA EUV system EXE:5200 and EUV upgrade services will bring more profits to it.

Overall, ASML has a conservative attitude towards its performance in 2024. They believe that the full-year revenue in 2024 may be similar to that in 2023, which is a year of smooth transition. In this year, efforts will be made to expand production capacity to achieve substantial growth in 2025. Lay the foundation.

2025 is considered an important year when market demand and performance will grow together. The "Year-End Total Semiconductor Equipment Forecast Report" released by SEMI predicts that semiconductor manufacturing equipment will resume growth in 2024, and driven by the front-end and back-end markets, sales in 2025 are expected to reach a new high of US$124 billion.

Applied Materials: Storage market continues to weaken

For the full year of fiscal year 2023 (ending October 29, 2023), Applied Materials achieved record revenue of US$26.517 billion, an increase of 2.8% from US$25.785 billion in fiscal year 2022. Gross profit margin was 46.7%, and operating profit was US$7.65 billion, accounting for 28.9% of net sales.

Applied Materials Fiscal Year 2023 Results

(Source: Applied Materials Financial Report)

Applied Materials is the world's largest semiconductor equipment manufacturer and is known as the "semiconductor equipment supermarket" in the industry. Its semiconductor business covers almost the entire semiconductor process, including thin film deposition (CVD, PVD, etc.), ion implantation, etching, and rapid heat treatment. , chemical mechanical leveling (CMP), measurement and testing and many other equipment.

The small growth in Applied Materials’ performance was mainly due to the continued weakness in the storage market.

Judging from various business indicators, Applied Materials has performed well in wafer foundry, logic and other semiconductor systems, with revenue accounting for 79% of total semiconductor system revenue, higher than 66% in the same period last year; in the field of memory chips Its business revenue is slightly weak, with DRAM equipment accounting for 17% of total semiconductor system revenue and NAND Flash equipment accounting for 4%. Applied Materials said its memory chip customers' spending is at its lowest level in more than a decade.

But the explosive growth of AI is benefiting related chip manufacturers. Applied Materials Chief Financial Officer Brice Hill said on the conference call that about 5% of Applied Materials’ wafer fab equipment is dedicated to the AI market.

Applied Materials revenue share by region

(Source: Applied Materials Financial Report)

In previous reports, Applied Materials mentioned that due to trade restrictions, revenue losses in fiscal year 2023 are expected to be as high as $2.5 billion. However, judging from the actual revenue situation, the impact is not significant at present.

Applied Materials' financial report for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023 (October quarter) shows that sales from mainland China have increased significantly, accounting for as much as 44%, compared with 20% last year. Applied Materials expects that over time, mainland China’s share will gradually return to the typical level of 30%. In the entire fiscal year 2023, revenue from mainland China accounted for 27%, and Taiwan, China, accounted for 21%.

展望2024年，应用材料预期需求依然强劲，但存在一些细分业务变化。未来公司将推动研发计划，进一步实现产品组合的差异化；投资于运营和供应链的改进；同时随着公司规模的扩大，继续减少对环境的影响。

泛林集团：中国大陆市场占比持续提升

1月24日，泛林集团公布2024财年度第二季（截至2023年12月24日为止）财报，营收季增7.9%至37.6亿美元。

从各区域营收占比来看，中国大陆占比高达40%（低于上个财季的48%），紧随其后的是韩国（19%）、日本（14%）、中国台湾（13%）、美国（5%）、欧洲（5%）、东南亚（4%）。

从该数据来看，泛林集团仍较大程度依赖中国市场。根据管理层的说法，这种依赖可能会保持在较高水平。相比之下，美国市场占比仅为5%。因此，如果施加严格限制，泛林集团在中国市场的业务或将面临风险。

展望后市，泛林集团CEO Tim Archer表示，随着AI等创新驱动半导体产业未来数年强劲成长，泛林集团有望因此而受益。同时，在存储芯片需求温和复苏的带动下，2024年晶圆厂设备（WFE）投资额预估将落在800亿美元区间的中后段。其中，DRAM厂设备支出将因HBM增产、制程转换而呈现成长，NAND厂设备支出将因技术升级而转强。

需要指出的是，泛林集团的主要营收来源于刻蚀设备，而在存储芯片当中，对于刻蚀制程需求更大。

但从目前来看，内存工厂利用率仍然较低，在泛林集团的业务构成中，DRAM占业务的31%，NAND仍然相对较低，为17%。服务费用为14.6亿美元约占业务的39%，因此工具销售仍然非常疲软。

基于此，泛林集团预估，2024会计年度第三季（截至2024年3月31日）营收将达37亿美元（±3.0亿美元）。同时，考虑到ASML的光刻设备与泛林刻蚀设备和薄膜沉积设备的产业链配套关系，预计泛林集团会在2024年下半年或年底看到订单增加。

东京电子：“两条腿走路”战略

根据东京电子公布的财报显示，2023年三季度，合并营收较去年同期大减39.7%至4278亿日元、合并营业利润暴跌58.7%至961亿日元、合并净利润暴跌59.2%至731亿日元

2023上半年，PC/智能手机等终端产品需求萎缩、存储芯片库存调整，导致存储厂商减产、修正设备投资，加上先进逻辑/晶圆代工厂设备投资也和存储厂商一样，进入暂时调整局面，拖累东京电子的合并营收、营业利润、净利润陷入大幅萎缩。不过这一系列数值仍优于东京电子此前的预期。

东京电子指出，尽管先进逻辑/晶圆代工厂的投资出现了延迟，但成熟制程部分以及中国大陆客户的投资大幅加速。其中，中国大陆市场占TEL整体营收的比重首次突破了四成大关。

在最近举行的日本半导体展览会上表示，东京电子表示，“当然，日本和美国的出口管制对我们企业造成了一些影响，但影响比我们预期的要小得多。”中国市场创造的营收占到东京电子今年第三季度公司总营收的43%，而去年同期这一比例仅为24%。

据美国《财富》杂志近日报道，面对出口管制，TEL日前表示，通过扩大向中国销售一些“不太先进制程”的半导体设备，该公司在很大程度上抵消了对华芯片出口管制的影响。

东京电子一直在中美芯片关系紧张阶段之间采取“两条腿走路”的战略，即在专注于为中国开发合规产品的同时，深化与其他关键市场尖端客户的技术开发。TEL 是全球半导体供应链中的关键参与者，也一直是中国半导体制造设备的重要供应商之一。

对于2024年，东京电子预估WFE市场将呈现微增，并且看好支持生成式AI的AI服务器的投资和发展，将有望提振设备市场的需求。

科磊半导体：WFE投资呈复苏趋势

晶圆检测设备制造商科磊（KLA Corporation）于1月25日公布了2024会计年度第2季（截至2023年12月31日为止）财报，该季度营收24.87亿美元，同比减少16.7%，环比增长4%。

图源：KLA官网

从上图也能看到，晶圆检测已成为KLA业务的最大份额，占47%，而图案检测约占其中的三分之一，占总收入的17%。图案化同比下降50%，环比下降21%，而晶圆检查同比下降7%，环比上升15%。今年总计，晶圆检测仅下降了5%，而图案化降幅达20%。

虽然这些业务从一个季度到下一个季度都不稳定，并且存在很大的变化，但长期模式毕竟明显的是，KLA在图案化方面的主导地位正在下降，而且增长正在显着放缓，尤其是与晶圆检查设备相比。

从地区营收占比来看，中国大陆市场营收占比自第1季的43%降至41%，仍存在风险。中国市场仍然是一把双刃剑，既是风险者，也是救世主。如果没有膨胀的中国业务，KLA（以及其他设备制造商）将会陷入困境。

然而，科磊表示，中国市场占据了公司积压订单的很大一部分，希望在任何制裁生效之前获得设备。“我们显然看到了其中的风险，并且仍然对中国在季度和积压方面所代表的巨大业务量感到担忧。”

从2023财年业绩来看，科磊全年收入接近97亿美元，同比下降8%。由于传统节点客户和半导体基础设施的实力抵消了逻辑和内存领域领先投资低于预期的影响，因此这一收入仍高于预期。

图源：KLA财报

尽管WFE业务去年有所下滑，但KLA业务的各个分部仍有增长，这些业务是充满挑战的需求环境中的亮点。

科磊在致股东的信件中表示，根据目前的晶圆厂时间表和科磊的出货计划，WFE的投资成长复苏时间预期在4-6月，将呈现季增且复苏势头将持续到年底。科磊预估，2024年WFE需求将达到800亿美元区间的中后段，大约相当于较2023年呈现持平至微幅上扬，下半年WFE投资预估将优于上半年。

具体来看：在内存方面，科磊预计WFE投资将从较低水平略有上升，投资重点是高带宽内存（HBM）容量和领先的节点开发。NAND和DRAM晶圆厂仍处于低利用率水平，因为消费市场尚未恢复到使工厂利用率恢复到过去几年高水平所需的增长水平。一旦客户消耗了这些过剩的容量并专注于节点迁移，预计会看到新的投资。

总的来说，尽管面临不确定性，但科磊仍对晶圆厂设备的未来需求保持乐观态度，并预测WFE投资将呈现复苏趋势。

展望未来，科磊预测本季度营收的中间值为23.0亿美元，上下浮动1.25亿美元。其中，代工/逻辑预计约占60%，内存预计占半过程控制系统收入的40%。在内存中，DRAM预计将占部分组合的85%左右，NAND占剩余的15%。

展望2024财年，3月季度是今年的低点，并预计随着我们在这一年的进展，业务水平将有所改善。

DISCO：季度出货量创历史新高

1月24日，DISCO发布的2023财年第三季度财报显示，该季度净销售额为770亿日元，同比增长了17%。

2023财年财报及盈利预测

（图源：DISCO财报）

同时，由于生成式AI和功率半导体用设备需求增加，预计Q4季度（2024年1-3月）净销售额将达到845亿日元，季度出货量将创历史新高纪录，整个2023财年同比增长1.3%。

此外，尽管美国和日本加强了半导体设备对中国出口管制，但DISCO在中国市场的收入暂时未受到影响。据悉，截至2022年3月，该公司约31%的收入来自中国，2023年7~9月增加至34%。

按应用构成产品占比

（图源：DISCO财报）

良好的业绩背后离不开DISCO在市场和技术方面的不断开拓。

DISCO于2023年12月推出全新的SiC（碳化硅）切割设备，可将碳化硅晶圆的切割速度提高10倍，首批产品已交付客户。

另一边，据外媒报道，DISCO预计投资超过400亿日圆新建广岛新工厂，计划最早于2025年开始兴建。新工厂将生产用于晶圆切割、研磨和抛光过程的切割轮。预计到2035年之际，公司整体的产能将提高14倍。

DISCO执行长Kazuma Sekiya表示，我们将采取先发制人的措施，应对预期中的需求成长。据统计，DISCO在晶圆切割、研磨和抛光机器方面的市占率居世界首位，在晶圆切割和研磨机领域占据70~80%市场份额，公司市值在2023年增长三倍，并且研发支出创下了250亿日元的新高。DISCO当前的重点是HBM和碳化硅晶圆切割设备。

此外，DISCO也计划在长野事业所茅野工厂附近取得建厂用地，计划在2025年度兴建新工厂，主要是由于应用于电动汽车等场景的功率半导体需求扩大，DISCO计划在今后10年内将切割/研磨芯片、电子零件材料的制造设备产能提高至现行的约3倍。

泰瑞达：制造业从中国撤出

近日，泰瑞达公布2023年第四季度收入为6.71亿美元，较上年同期下降8%。其中4.31亿美元来自半导体测试，8600万美元来自系统测试，2500万美元来自无线测试，1.29亿美元来自机器人。

图源：泰瑞达财报

Teradyne首席执行官Greg Smith表示，“由于内存测试系统的强劲需求和50%的季度增长，我们在2023年第四季度的收入和利润符合指导预期。机器人收入创历史新高，抵消了对SoC测试系统需求的减弱。”

2023财年收入为26.76亿美元，比2022财年下降15%

图源：泰瑞达财报

展望新的一年，泰瑞达预计测试仪利用率低将影响上半年的需求，但预计全年半导体测试需求将从2023年开始逐步改善。在机器人业务方面，预计在第一季度出现季节性疲软之后，后续在新产品、新应用和全球分销渠道改善的推动下，季度增长将持续。”

SEMI也预期，测试设备销售至2024年可望迎来新局面，预估将成长13.9%。2025年需求预估将进一步提升，测试封装设备可望成长17%。

图源：SEMI（单位：十亿美元）

但近日有消息曝出，泰瑞达表示，在美国出口法规导致供应链中断后，半导体测试设备供应商泰瑞达去年将价值约10亿美元的制造业从中国撤出。据报道，苏州的一家工厂是该公司半导体测试设备的主要制造基地，或将其分包给伟创力。

截至2023年10月1日，中国市场占泰瑞达营收的12%，而去年同期该比例为16%。

半导体设备市场，未来走势

能够看到，国际设备大厂由于自身业务和市场运营差异，2023财年业绩表现参差不齐，有的厂商订单快速增长，有些则仍相对疲软。但整体传递出一个信号，那就是半导体市场将在2024年作为过渡年，将实现温和复苏，预计2025年将迎来新一轮的快速增长。

对于半导体设备整体市场发展现状与趋势，SEMI表示，原始设备制造商的全球半导体制造设备销售额预计到2023年将达到1000亿美元，较2022年创下的1074亿美元的行业纪录下降6.1 %。半导体制造设备预计将在2024年恢复增长，在前端和后端领域的支撑下，销售额预计将在2025年达到1240亿美元的新高。

即2023年出现暂时收缩，2024年过渡，2025年将出现强劲反弹。

按市场和应用细分来看，半导体设备销售额分别表现如何？

按细分市场划分的半导体设备销售额： 继2022年创下创纪录的940亿美元销售额后，包括晶圆加工、晶圆厂设施和掩模/掩模版设备在内的晶圆厂设备领域，预计到2023年将下滑 3.7%，至906亿美元。这一收缩标志着较2023年的显着改善。由于内存容量增加有限以及成熟产能扩张的暂停，预计2024年晶圆厂设备细分市场销售额将在修订后的2023年基数基础上小幅增长3%。随着新晶圆厂项目、产能扩张和技术迁移推动投资接近1100亿美元，预计2025年增长将进一步增长18%。

而后端设备细分市场销售额从2022年开始下降，并持续到2023年。到2023年，半导体测试设备市场销售额预计将萎缩15.9%，至63亿美元，而组装和封装设备销售额预计将下降31%，至40亿美元。预计2024年测试设备和组装及包装设备领域将分别增长13.9%和24.3%。后端细分市场预计将在2025年持续增长，测试设备销售额将增长17%，组装和封装销售额将增长20%。

按应用划分的半导体设备销售额： 尽管终端市场状况较为疲软，但代工和逻辑应用的设备销售额占晶圆厂设备总收入的一半以上，预计到2023年将同比增长6%，达到563亿美元。随着成熟技术扩张放缓以及前沿技术支出增加，预计应用领域到2024年将萎缩2%。在产能扩张采购增加和新设备架构引入的推动下，代工和逻辑设备投资预计到2025年将增长15%，达到633亿美元。

内存市场则呈现较大波动，与内存相关的资本支出将在2023年出现最大幅度的下降。预计2023年NAND设备销售额将下降49%，至88亿美元，但2024年将飙升21%，至107亿美元，2024年将再增长51%，至162亿美元。DRAM设备销售额预计将保持稳定，2023年和2024年分别增长1%和3%。在持续技术迁移和高带宽内存 (HBM) 需求不断扩大的支持下，DRAM设备细分市场销售额预计将在2025年再增长20%，达到155亿美元。

图源：SEMI（单位：十亿美元）

SEMI还在报告中指出，预计到2025年，中国大陆、中国台湾和韩国仍将是设备支出的三大目的地。

随着设备需求继续飙升，预计中国大陆将在预测期内保持领先地位，扩大与其他地区的领先优势。需要注意的是，大多数跟踪地区的设备支出预计将在2023年下降，然后在2024年恢复增长，但中国大陆在2023年的大量投资之后预计将在2024年出现温和收缩。

写在最后

Recently, Semiconductor Industry Observation has sorted out the performance of domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers in the article "Semiconductor Equipment in 2023: Domestic Manufacturers Perform Brightly" . Interested friends can check it out by themselves.

As stated in the article: "In general, although the semiconductor industry will be in a downward cycle in 2023, both domestic and foreign semiconductor equipment manufacturers, except for the decline of individual manufacturers, will basically achieve growth in 2023." increase."

Looking ahead, semiconductor manufacturing equipment is expected to resume growth in 2024, followed by a strong rebound in 2025. This will also be a microcosm of the overall development trend of the semiconductor industry. At that time, the semiconductor market will come out of the trough and usher in a new round of upward cycle.

Reference material

1.SEMI: https://www.semi.org/en/news-media-press-releases/semi-press-releases/global-total-semiconductor-equipment-sales-forecast-to-reach-record-%24124 -billion-in-2025-semi-reports

2. Microelectronics manufacturing: Kelei announced its financial report and expects strong growth in WFE investment in the second half of the year.

3. Financial reports of the above equipment companies

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