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According to Yole Developpement, the global 3D imaging and sensing market was worth about $6.8 billion in 2020 and will see soft growth for a year or two. They further note that it will grow more strongly as secondary markets such as automotive and industrial take off, and is expected to grow to $15 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5%,
The report shows that this market mainly serves mobile and consumer, and is expected to still account for 46% of the entire 3D imaging and sensing market by 2026. By 2026, automotive and industrial combined will account for 22% of the market.
3D imaging and sensing market revenues from 2016 to 2026 (US$ million). Source: Yole
“In the mobile market, the growth of 3D sensing has been temporarily interrupted by the Huawei ban in the United States and the abandonment of the technology by the Android camp,” said Richard Liu, an analyst at Yole Development. “The 3D sensing product shipments recorded in 2020 were about 80% of the previous forecast. As sales stabilize, the gap with the previous optimistic forecast has widened.” He also emphasized that as under-screen camera technology matures, low-cost iToF sensing solutions are also increasing. These may drive higher 3D sensing adoption and resume growth around 2023.
There are multiple technical approaches to 3D sensing. Stereo vision, structured light, and time of flight are the three most common approaches. LiDAR, which is often used in autonomous driving, is still in its infancy.
Yole considers Apple to be the largest customer or 3D sensing, which has adopted structured light across its entire product line. Apple released a 3D rear camera in the iPhone 12 Pro.
Apple continues to use front-facing structured light in all iPhone series. It also introduced a 3D camera with a dToF array sensor in the iPhone 12 Pro, which is a step forward in the 3D sensing market.
They point out that in terms of mobile 3D sensing, Apple's supply chain is stable and growing. STMicroelectronics and Lumentum have the highest profits, followed by ams, II-VI and LG Innotek. However, the Android camp is not so healthy.
Yole said that neither transmitter component suppliers (such as Trumpf and Vertilite) nor receiver companies (such as Omnivision and PMD Technology) have benefited from this. But the good news is that they are already actively working on 3D sensing in non-mobile areas, such as Vertilite in automotive and PMD in consumer applications.
Yole specifically emphasized that in this 3D imaging and sensing ecosystem, Sony remains an exception. It is not only the leader in iToF sensor arrays, but also the only manufacturer that can provide dToF sensor arrays for consumer applications. This is very competitive. No matter how the market changes, analysts will not be surprised if it maintains the first position.
In Yole’s view, 3D imaging and sensing technology is an important means of perceiving and acquiring information in the real world. It provides the basis for detection and recognition as well as reconstruction of the true geometry of objects and subsequent 3D modeling. It is used in consumer biometrics, augmented reality, gaming, autonomous driving and a wide range of applications. ”
They pointed out that in addition to mobile phones, 3D sensing technology also has a wide impact in the consumer market, including tablets, VR/AR, robot vacuum cleaners and AIoT. Rising labor costs and manufacturing upgrades are accelerating the development of automation and machine vision, including 3D vision systems, increasing 3D vision penetration every year. While electric vehicles have risen rapidly in 2020, they have also developed advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), which are currently booming in the market.
Yole analysts believe that automotive will be an important part of the next wave of 3D sensing adoption. Automotive ADAS and AR will also become large 3D sensing application markets. In 2020, the rapid growth of electric vehicles with extremely high intelligence and ADAS has driven the adoption of LIDAR. This has attracted a wide range of players, including traditional industry LiDAR suppliers such as Valeo and Velodyne, as well as electronics giants Sony, Huawei, and startups such as Livox and XAOS.
The company expects the global 3D imaging and sensing market to grow from $6.8 billion in 2020 to $15 billion in 2026, a compound annual growth rate of 14.5%.
Among all 3D sensing markets, China is an emerging market. It has shown great vitality not only in the 3D back-end application market, but also in the 3D front-end supply chain. This is driven by China's policy of nurturing local supply chains amid the US-China trade conflict. Face payment is driven by Alipay and WeChat platform manufacturers and supported by technology provider Orbbec. In 3D machine vision, Hikrobot and Huaray are beginning to compete with companies such as Sick and Lucid.
In the automotive field, the entry of Chinese manufacturers has played a decisive role in the price reduction of lidar.
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