Is Japan's semiconductor policy doomed to fail?
Latest update time：2021-06-14
Reads：
Source: The content is compiled by Semiconductor Industry Observer (ID: icbank) from "
jbpress", author: Tang Shangshanglong, thank you.
(Photo courtesy: jbpress)
Global semiconductor boom
I joined Hitachi in 1987 as a semiconductor technician. I have been working in the industry for 34 years, but I have never seen semiconductors so hot as they are now. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun has published articles about semiconductors for several consecutive days. In addition, television frequently reports on the Suga administration, the semiconductor policy of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, and the semiconductor parliamentary alliance of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan.
On June 1, I was invited by the House of Representatives' Special Committee on Science, Technology and Innovation to speak as a semiconductor expert reference on how Japan's semiconductor industry should develop in the future (reviewing history, reflecting and analyzing).
The opportunity for semiconductors to attract attention began with the following: In January 2021, due to the problem of automobile manufacturers' suspension of production due to the global semiconductor supply shortage, the governments of Japan, the United States, Germany and other countries have asked the semiconductor foundry (Foundry) Taiwan TSMC to expand the production of automotive semiconductors through the Taiwan authorities.
Trends in countries around the world and in Japan
At present, countries around the world are making huge investments and strengthening the localization of semiconductors. According to a report by the Nikkei on June 3, the US government, which began to introduce TSMC to build a factory in the United States last year (2020), is discussing providing 4.3 trillion yen (about 253.7 billion yuan) in subsidies over five years to companies that build factories and set up research centers in the United States.
In addition, the EU's policy is to invest about 19 trillion yen (about 1.121 trillion yuan) in the digital field (including semiconductors) in the next 2113 years. In addition, China established an IC fund in 2014 and invested about 5 trillion yen (about 295 billion yuan, as far as I know, it should be 20 trillion yen, or 1.18 trillion yuan) in the research and development of semiconductor-related technologies, and local governments have also established funds of more than 5 trillion yen.
In addition, Taiwan, which has TSMC, has also begun to implement subsidies to attract investment back to Taiwan, with a total investment plan of about 2.7 trillion yen (about 159.3 billion yuan) centered on high-tech fields. In addition, South Korea, a major memory semiconductor country, is also conducting a "public-private partnership" and plans to invest about 50 trillion yen (about 295 billion yuan) in the next ten years to prepare a semiconductor supply network called "K Semiconductor Level" in South Korea.
Based on the above situation, the Japanese government has also begun to carry out semiconductor-related activities, such as introducing policies to strengthen semiconductors into the "Draft Development Strategy."
However, I do not fully appreciate the activities of the active Japanese government, the Liberal Democratic Party parliamentary coalition, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, etc. In addition, Japan's policies are not systematic, and the semiconductor boom is only temporary and may disappear by this time next year.
In this article, I will briefly describe the following: What actions has Japan taken around semiconductors since the beginning of this year (2021)? (Although it is a brief description, there is actually a lot of content)? Secondly, I will describe why Japan's semiconductor policy is unsystematic and why the semiconductor strengthening policy of the Liberal Democratic Party's parliamentary coalition is absurd.
Activities in Japan around semiconductors
At the beginning of 2021, there was a shortage of automotive semiconductors, which eventually led to the inability of automobile manufacturers to produce cars. Affected by this, the governments of Japan, the United States, Germany and other countries, which rely on automobiles as their backbone industries, asked TSMC to increase the production of automotive semiconductors through the Taiwan authorities on January 24. Let's take a look at how Japan is doing activities around semiconductors.
On February 9, the Nikkei reported that TSMC will set up a research and development center for semiconductor back-end processes in Tsukuba, Japan. The article mentioned that the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is committed to introducing TSMC, and TSMC will cooperate with Japan, which has advantages in semiconductor materials and semiconductor equipment, to develop "3D packaging (i.e. laminating various semiconductors)".
Newswitch released a news report on April 3rd that due to the fire at the Naka factory of Renesas Electronics, a manufacturer of automotive semiconductors, on March 19, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association asked TSMC to produce automotive semiconductors.
Before the Japan-U.S. summit on April 16, the Japanese and U.S. governments had already started cooperation in the supply chain of important parts such as semiconductors. In order to share the role of research and development and production systems, the relevant departments set up a "working committee." (Nikkei, April 2)
However, in the joint statement after the Japan-US summit, it was mentioned that "in order to counter the threat from China, based on economic security, Japan and the United States will invest a total of US$4.5 billion (approximately RMB 29.25 billion) in the research and development of high-speed, large-capacity 5G and next-generation 6G cutting-edge communication technologies." For the extremely important semiconductors, there is only one article titled "We must also cooperate in important supply chains including semiconductors."
On May 17, the Nikkei reported that the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan has formed a parliamentary alliance to discuss the way the Japanese semiconductor industry should be. The article said that Akira Amari, the chairman of the tax investigation committee that leads economic security, will serve as the chairman, and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, and Finance Minister, etc. have been nominated as top advisers. The first meeting will be held on May 21, and it is planned to make recommendations to the government this fall, with the goal of reflecting them in the 2022 budget.
On May 19, the Nikkei reported that the Japanese government has clarified its forward-looking strategy (to be announced in June) to promote concentrated investment in order to expand domestic production of cutting-edge semiconductors and batteries. Although Japan has a fund of about 200 billion yen (about 11.8 billion yuan), it is far less than other countries. Therefore, the Japanese government is significantly expanding its current support policies to promote the development of production technology for cutting-edge semiconductors, etc.
On May 27, the Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun reported that Sony Group and TSMC plan to cooperate to build a semiconductor factory in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, led by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Sony's CMOS sensor shipments for smartphones and other applications account for more than 50% of the global market share. The logic semiconductors of its CMOS sensors are outsourced to TSMC for production. The news report pointed out that the total investment is expected to be 1 trillion yen (or even more), and a new factory is planned to be built near Sony's Kumamoto factory in 2021.
On May 31, the Nikkei reported that the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan decided to support TSMC, which has set up a base in Japan. The support covers half of the total operating expenses (37 billion yen, about 2.183 billion yuan), and more than 20 companies are involved (such as Ibiden, Asahi Kasei, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Nagase Industry, Shibaura Machine Electronics Co., Ltd. and other Japanese companies), with the purpose of developing the most advanced semiconductor production technology. The purpose of cooperating with TSMC through "public-private cooperation" is to maintain and improve international competitiveness.
On June 1, the House of Representatives convened a special committee to promote science, technology and reform. The director of the RIKEN Institute, the professor emeritus (business administration) of Hitotsubashi University, and the author were appointed as "reference persons" and each gave a speech of about 15 minutes. The discussion on semiconductor-related policies lasted a total of about three and a half hours.
On June 2, the Nikkei reported that the Japanese government will release a draft of the forward-looking strategy within June to formulate a strategy for promoting the introduction of the semiconductor industry into Japan based on economic security. On the same day, at the forward-looking strategy meeting headed by Cabinet Secretary-General Katsunobu Kato, the strategic guidelines were revealed, and the cabinet's decision will be announced within this month through coordination with the ruling party.
On June 4, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced a new strategy to strengthen the foundation of digital industries such as semiconductors. With the goal of attracting overseas semiconductor foundries to Japan, support will be provided in the form of "special treatment measures (i.e., in a way different from general industrial policies)". At a press conference after the cabinet meeting, Economic Minister Hiroshi Kajiyama pointed out that "this is not a private business, but a national business", and also emphasized that "based on reflection on the [lost thirty years] and the current changes in geopolitics, we hope to change the relevant policies on semiconductors."
The Japanese government, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the Liberal Democratic Party, and the House of Representatives are unable to unite
Although we have reviewed the activities since 2021, they are limited to the above activities. After listing them one by one in the above order, we can see that the main activities around semiconductors are the Japanese government, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the Liberal Democratic Party, and the House of Representatives.
On June 1, I was invited to give a speech in the House of Representatives as a "reference person", but when I asked the relevant personnel, "What is the relationship between this Special Committee for Promoting Science, Technology and Reform and the Japanese government, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the Liberal Democratic Party, and the House of Representatives?" I was surprised to hear that they said, "There is no relationship at all!"
Perhaps, there is some cooperation between the Japanese government and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, but at least there is no relationship between the Japanese government + the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the Liberal Democratic Party's Semiconductor Parliamentary Alliance, and the House of Representatives committee. It is just a scattered "local war".
The activities of the Biden administration in the United States are completely different from those in Japan. In the United States, President Biden took the lead and held semiconductor conferences on April 12 and May 20. The goal of the conference was to solve the problem of insufficient semiconductor supply and strengthen semiconductor production.
Participants in the semiconductor conference included semiconductor manufacturers such as Intel, Google, Dell, TSMC, and Samsung, as well as IT companies, and automobile manufacturers such as General Motors and Ford. In addition, the White House, led by President Biden, and National Economic Council Director Brian Deese served as chairman, Jake Sullivan (US National Security Advisor), Raimondo (US Secretary of Commerce), and others attended the meeting. In short, the United States is led by President Biden, and the government and companies are working together to solve the problem of semiconductor shortages and strengthen US semiconductor production. Both Japan and the United States have claimed to strengthen semiconductor production, but their political directions are worlds apart.
The following are my comments on the Liberal Democratic Party's Semiconductor Parliamentary Alliance.
Semiconductor Parliamentary Alliance of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan
On May 25, ABEMA TIMES published a post titled "A·A·A (Three A)" using the initials of the Japanese pronunciation of the names of three senior figures in the Semiconductor Parliamentary Alliance of the Democratic Party, "Abe, Aso, and Amari". After seeing this, I thought it was a prank because the three people actually have no connection with semiconductors.
Do these three people know that the full name of semiconductor is "semiconductor integrated circuit"? Do they know that the essence of semiconductor is the "circuit" in "integrated circuit"?
In addition, Amari, the president of the Inter-Parliamentary Union, once said, "The semiconductor strategy will become a strategic war that affects the fate of the country in the future. It is no exaggeration to say that the country that controls semiconductors controls the world." I believe that the Japanese semiconductor industry has reached a point of no return (this is also the view I expressed in the House of Representatives) (Figure 1 below). Therefore, regarding Mr. Amari's remarks, I can't help but say, "What's the point of saying these things now?"
Figure 1: National projects, international associations, and joint ventures have all failed, and Japan's semiconductor industry has fallen into an irreversible state. (Image from: jbpress, semiconductor share data from Gartner, part of which is from the author's prediction)
In addition, more than 100 LDP members participated in this parliamentary alliance, and the top advisor Abe said: "I heard that they want to produce products of another dimension, so today Deputy Prime Minister Aso and the Minister of Finance gathered here. Most of the contents of this parliamentary alliance are being implemented." Then the question is, "Why can a large part of the contents be implemented when Taro Aso is here?" The author cannot understand this at all.
Furthermore, the four items that the IPU wants to strengthen are nonsense. As an author, I cannot understand them at all.
The LDP Semiconductor Parliamentary Alliance plans to strengthen four areas
Figure 2 below shows the four areas of semiconductors that the IPU plans to strengthen. The author states his opinions on each of them.
Figure 2: The four semiconductor fields that the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party's Semiconductor Parliamentary Alliance plans to strengthen. (Image source: The author made this figure based on the May 25th Nihon Keizai Shimbun)
(1) About memory semiconductors such as DRAM and NAND
As for Japanese companies that produce memory semiconductors, there is Japan's Kioxia, which is used in mobile phones and computers. First of all, Kioxia only produces NAND. There are no DRAM manufacturers in Japan. In this case, how to strengthen DRAM production?
In addition, as far as NAND is concerned, the product with the highest added value is SSD (Solid State Drive). From the Byte ratio, Kioxia's share in Enterprise SSDs used in servers in data centers and Client SSDs used in computers is not high. (Figure 3 below)
The byte ratio of Enterprise SSD and Client SSD shipments in the second quarter of 2020. (Image from: jbpress)
Whether it is enterprise SSD or client SSD, Kioxia lags far behind its biggest competitor, Samsung Electronics. In addition, Kioxia lags behind even WD (Western Digital) of the United States, which cooperates in operating the Yokkaichi factory.
The reason why Kioxia's SSD share is relatively low is that Kioxia cannot design the logic semiconductor (SSD Controller) that drives the SSD by itself, and its production is outsourced to companies such as TSMC. On the other hand, Samsung Electronics, which has a relatively high share of SSDs, designs and produces its own SSD Controller. In addition, WD outsources its production to TSMC and designs it by itself.
In short, whether or not one can design and produce SSD Controllers by themselves is directly related to the competitiveness of SSDs. In addition, Kioxia's competitiveness is relatively weak. Therefore, the key point of strengthening must be SSD (especially in the Enterprise direction). However, the IPU did not strengthen the above content.
(2) Logic semiconductors used to process data and control devices
Japanese companies in this field include Renesas Electronics and Socionext Inc. (Socionext), and end products include computers and mobile phones. The views of the IPU here are also intriguing.
For example, Renesas Electronics can produce microcontrollers (full name = Micro Controller Unit, MCU) for automobiles and industrial equipment, but it cannot produce CPUs for computers and smartphones. I don't understand whether Renesas Electronics should be listed here.
In addition, if Renesas plans to strengthen the production of CPUs for computers and smartphones, Renesas' current production capacity is 65 nanometers, and products above 40 nanometers are outsourced to TSMC. Nowadays, CPUs for computers and smartphones require the most advanced 14-nanometer to 5-nanometer processes, which Renesas cannot achieve despite its best efforts.
As shown in Figure 1 above, Japan's logic semiconductor competitiveness is extremely weak. The gap between Japan and the world is so large that it can circle the earth three times, and it is already irreversible.
(3) Analog semiconductors including sensors
Indeed, when it comes to CMOS sensors, Sony's shipments account for more than 50% of the world's total. However, even so, I am still worried about Sony's future. Here are the reasons.
Sony's strengths lie in people's livelihood. Sony's CMOS sensors have unique advantages, especially in high-end smartphones such as Apple's iPhone. However, after September 15 last year (2020), Huawei no longer has an advantage in the smartphone market due to US sanctions. This is also a disadvantage for Sony. The reason is that for Sony, Huawei is a major customer comparable to Apple.
In addition to Huawei, Chinese companies such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo are eager to try. However, since these Chinese smartphone manufacturers do not need high-end CMOS sensors like Huawei, Sony is currently unable to fill Huawei's orders.
In addition, today's CMOS sensor market has shifted from traditional consumer products such as smartphones to industrial equipment such as automobiles and surveillance cameras. However, Sony has almost no share in automobiles and industrial equipment, and is completely unable to compete with ON Semiconductor in the United States.
Considering the above, Sony's CMOS sensors should first be strengthened in the industrial field represented by automobiles. However, this is not reflected in the strengthening policy of the Liberal Democratic Party parliamentary coalition.
(4) Power semiconductors
As the IPU has shown, power semiconductors are widely used in railways, power plants, and other fields. In addition, they are also used in EV (electric vehicles), a market that is about to expand. The giant in the EV field is Germany's Infineon, and there are also some small suppliers in Japan, such as Mitsubishi Electric, Toshiba, Fuji Electric and other power semiconductor manufacturers. Therefore, it is understandable that policies are being strengthened in this field.
However, there is one thing I would like to emphasize: there was an outbreak of the coronavirus at Kaga Toshiba Electronics (Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan), which produces power semiconductors, but the government did not provide any assistance.
Why is Kaga Toshiba in trouble of production suspension?
In April last year (2020), a cluster infection occurred at Kaga Toshiba Electronics, which produces power semiconductors, so Toshiba had to suspend production for two weeks.
Based on public information, the author's analysis is as follows: The spread started with patients No. 134 and No. 136, who were infected on April 6 and April 7, as the core (see Figure 4 below). Here, No. 134 and No. 136 are the identification numbers of Ishikawa Prefecture.
Figure 4: Infected people at Kaga Toshiba Electronics. The author created this figure based on the "Incidence of COVID-19 Infections in Ishikawa Prefecture". (Image source: jbpress)
Next, with regard to the patients at Kaga Toshiba Electronics, the author made a chart showing the first people to be infected and when they underwent nucleic acid testing (Figure 5). It can be seen that patient No. 134 underwent nucleic acid testing nine days after infection, and patient No. 136 also underwent nucleic acid testing eight days later.
Figure 5: The cluster of infections at Kaga Toshiba Electronics. The author created this chart based on the "Incidence of COVID-19 Infections in the Prefecture" in Ishikawa Prefecture. (Image source: jbpress)
Recently, some people have been unable to receive nucleic acid tests even when they have symptoms of COVID-19, and this has become a social problem. Kaga Toshiba has become a complete victim. If employees No. 134 and No. 136 had received nucleic acid tests immediately when they showed symptoms, cluster infections might have been controlled and Kaga Toshiba would not have stopped production.
Industry groups and the government ignored my "petition"
In the above point, there are great differences between European and American semiconductor factories and Japan.
From April to May 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak was most severe in Europe and the west coast of the United States. However, for STMicroelectronics, a manufacturer located in Europe, the Italian and French governments "magnified" the negative impact of the shutdown of semiconductor factories, so they tried their best to prevent the factories from shutting down.
In addition, there are equipment manufacturers such as Applied Materials and Lam Research on the West Coast of the United States. In California, the technical personnel of the equipment manufacturers are protected as important employees and the greatest support is provided to prevent production shutdowns.
On the other hand, even if there are suspected cases of infection in semiconductor factories in Japan, they cannot receive nucleic acid testing. I think this is very important, so I asked the semiconductor industry associations SEMI Japan and SEAJ to "If there are suspected cases of infection in semiconductor-related companies, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare and the Japanese government need to quickly arrange nucleic acid testing", but I received a reply that "no special treatment can be given to certain companies", and I was turned down.
On May 8, 2020, I left a message on the Prime Minister’s website, “I hope that employees of semiconductor companies will be tested for nucleic acid.” In the letter, I not only explained the situation of Kaga Toshiba, but also proposed that if there are suspected cases among employees in the following two industries and companies, nucleic acid tests should be carried out quickly. The two items are as follows:
-
Without this company's products, the social system cannot be operated.
-
It takes hundreds or even thousands of employees to produce this kind of product.
Semiconductor companies meet the above two requirements. In fact, once the supply of power semiconductors produced by Kaga Toshiba and others stagnates, the operation of social infrastructure such as railways, power plants, and elevators will be in trouble. However, I did not receive a reply from the Japanese government. The Prime Minister at the time was Shinzo Abe, the top advisor of the Semiconductor Parliamentary Alliance of the Liberal Democratic Party. I would like to ask why Shinzo Abe ignored my message at the time.
What else is there to say now?
It has been a year since the cluster infection at Kaga Toshiba. The industry groups and the government ignored my message, and now they are strengthening power semiconductors? To be honest, my feeling now is "please be more serious!"
The reason why I mentioned at the beginning of the article that "I do not fully approve of the activities of the active Japanese government, the Liberal Democratic Party parliamentary coalition, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, etc." is because the Japanese government and the Liberal Democratic Party ignored the events that occurred a year ago and are now calling for "semiconductors, semiconductors, semiconductors."
The United States and China have officially begun to strengthen semiconductor production nationwide!
However, Japan's semiconductor craze is only temporary. By this time next year, people will surely forget today's semiconductor craze, as another craze will occur by then. Japan's craze is really flashy and superficial.
★ Click [Read original text] at the end of the article to view the original link of this article!
*Disclaimer: This article is originally written by the author. The content of the article is the author's personal opinion. Semiconductor Industry Observer reprints it only to convey a different point of view. It does not mean that Semiconductor Industry Observer agrees or supports this point of view. If you have any objections, please contact Semiconductor Industry Observer.
Today is the 2706th content shared by "Semiconductor Industry Observer" for you, welcome to follow.
Recommended Reading
★ Changes and constants in the analog IC market
★ Shortage of chips, semiconductor equipment supply is in crisis!
Semiconductor Industry Observation
" The first vertical media in semiconductor industry "
Real-time professional original depth
Scan the QR code , reply to the keywords below, and read more
Wafers｜ICs｜Equipment ｜Automotive Chips｜Storage｜United States｜Huawei｜Apple
Reply
Submit your article
and read "How to become a member of "Semiconductor Industry Observer""
Reply Search and you can easily find other articles that interest you!
Click to read the original text to view this article
Original link!
京公网安备 11010802033920号