U.S. Power Supply Market Forecast

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U.S. Power Supply Market Forecast [Copy link]

The commercial market for switching power supplies in the United States has developed in parallel with the market for desktop computers and telephone products. With the rapid, sustained and stable growth of computer communication equipment and the rapid growth of the new IT network product market, the future of the power supply market is very optimistic. Based on the analysis of VDC's research report "The US Commercial Market and In-Machine AC/DC Switching Power Supplies and DC/DC Converter Applications", based on the investigation of major decision makers of large and medium-sized OEMs in the main power application fields in the United States and the marketing personnel of large and medium-sized power supply manufacturers in the United States, as well as based on information from other channels, the literature [1] made a relatively comprehensive review of the past, present and future trends of the US power supply industry.

　　The current structure and distribution of the U.S. power supply industry market is shown in Figure 1.

　　Most power supplies produced by the power supply manufacturers shown in Figure 1 are shipped directly to OEMS and distributors. Value-added reseller sales are not yet large, but will become increasingly important.

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1AC/DC switching power supply market forecast (1) Rated power According to the rated power of AC/DC switching power supplies, the market share and annual growth rate of each type of power supply are shown in Table 1. In 1992, 251-500W power supplies accounted for 21.5%, but in 1996 it dropped to 15.8%. In recent years, the proportion of low-power and high-power power supplies has increased rapidly, among which 1001-1500W power supplies have the highest consumption growth rate, and the annual growth rate is expected to reach 16.5%. The main demand is for non-military and commercial use, requiring a large number of AC/DC switching power supplies with low output voltage and high output power. Table 1 Market (million US dollars) and annual growth rate of AC/DC switching power supplies classified by rated power Power range Estimated average annual growth rate 1996 1998 2001 Above 2000W 1501－2000W 1001－1500W 751－1000W 501－750W 251－500W 151－250W 76－150W 25－75W Less than 25W 261.1 189.4 239.5 196.7 300.8 425.2 426.3 274.8 232.6 125.3 328.2 234.8 324.7 251.4 384.0 542.7 534.5 347.4 291.1 152.2 456.6 325.2 514.7 364.4 554.8 785.4 752.2 495.8 408.4 204.1 11.8％ 11.4％ 16.5％ 13.1％ 13.0％ 13.1％ 12.0％ 12.5％ 11.9％ 10.2％ Total 2,671.7 3,389.0 4,861.6 12.7 (2) User application fields According to the user application fields of AC/DC switching power supplies, the market share and annual growth rate of various types of power supplies are shown in Table 2. From the data in Table 2, it can be seen that the vigorous development of long-distance communication and digital network cross-application fields, including the development of transmitters, dedicated exchange asynchronous transfer switches (ATM), remote access LAN equipment, and video conferencing equipment, will promote the demand for in-machine AC/DC switching power supplies. Therefore. The annual growth rate of AC/DC switching power supplies used in long-distance communication and data communication machines can reach 15.1%. The AC/DC switching power supplies used in computers and office automation will continue to maintain the largest consumption share, but the growth rate will not be as high as the former. In the industrial and instrumentation market consumption field, the demand for new and advanced medical and experimental equipment, including medical monitors, ventilation and blood test equipment, will increase day by day at home and abroad. In addition, power supplies for industrial process control machines, operating consoles, and test and measurement instruments will occupy a leading position in the field of industrial applications. Contrary to people's imagination, the demand for AC/DC power supplies in the military/aviation field has not decreased. In general, by 2001, the demand for AC/DC switching power supplies will increase by an average of 12.7% per year. Figure 1 Structure and distribution of the U.S. power supply industry market Table 4 Market share and annual growth rate of various types of DC/DC switching power supplies classified by user application fields User application fields Estimated average annual growth rate 1996 1998 2001 Remote and data communications Computer/office automation Industrial/instrument Military/aerospace 304.62 77.1 85.0 78.1 404.0 363.1 105.2 86.3 618.0 545.3 145.2 100.2 15.2％ 14.5％ 11.3％ 5.1％ Total 744.8 958.6 1,408.7 13.6％ Table 3 Market share and annual growth rate of DC/DC switching power supplies classified by rated power (million US dollars) Power range Estimated average annual growth rate 1996 1998 2001 Above 750W 501-750W 251-500W 151-250W 101－150W 51－100W 26－50W 16－25W 6－15W 1－5W Less than 1W 81.3 70.0 70.4 91.3 95.9 130.2 62.5 51.0 31.7 43.3 8.2 99.6 92.4 94.51 20.7 118.7 174.2 80.5 69.7 42.7 55.0 10.6 134.9 140.7 149.3 184.5 164.2 244.5 118.3 111.3 66.9 78.8 15.3 10.7％ 15.0％ 16.2％ 15.1％ 11.4％ 11.0％ 13.6％ 16.9％ 16.1％ 12.7％ 13.3％ Total 744.8 958.6 1,408.7 13.6％ Technology requirements Current level Estimated level in 2002 Cost 0.25～0.6 USD/W 0.15～0.5 USD/W Power density 2～4 W/cubic inch 3.5～6.0 W/cubic inch Output voltage 3.3～50 V 2.5～50 V Reliability (MTBF) 5×105 h (0.5 mega hours) 106 h (1 mega hours) Control 200 kHz, with PFC 400 kHz, with PFC Power topology Two-stage forward Single-stage PFC/integrated PFC Other switches: MOSFETS (GaAs), fast recovery diode reverse recovery speed is 3 to 10 times faster Magnetic materials: magnetic loss is reduced by two times, high temperature insulator Capacitors: plastic film capacitors for high power density, capacity density increased by 2 to 3 times Assembly: mixed assembly process, more use of surface mount technology Table 5500W or less AC/DC converter technology main development trends Table 2 Classification by user application field, various AC/DC switching power supply market (million US dollars) and annual growth rate User application field Estimated average annual growth rate 1996 1998 2001 Computer/office automation Remote and data communication Industry/instrument Military/aerospace Others 1,417.5 761.9 333.3 124.4 14.6 1,807.1 1,035.8 399.8 129.4 16.9 2,600.8 1,579.9 522.5 137.3 21.1 12.9% 15.1% 9.4% 2.0% 7.5% Total 2,671.7 3,389.0 4,861.6 12.7%

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2 DC/DC Converter Market Forecast (1) Power Rating According to the rated power of DC/DC switching power supplies, the market share and annual growth rate of each type of power supply are shown in Table 3. From the data in Table 3, it can be seen that 51-250W DC/DC switching power supplies have occupied the largest share in the past four years. Due to the high speed of microprocessors, the development of DC/DC switching power supplies from low power to medium power is an inevitable trend. Generally speaking, DC/DC switching power supplies have the fastest growth rate in the low power range, among which 16-25W DC/DC switching power supplies have the highest growth rate. This is because they are widely used in DC distributed power supplies, which are widely used in test and measurement equipment, computer display systems, rugged and reliable computers and military communication systems. The growth rate of 251-500W DC/DC switching power supplies ranks second. They are mainly used in service medical and laboratory equipment, industrial control equipment, remote communication equipment, multi-channel communication and other transmission equipment. 51-100W DC/DC switching power supplies accounted for the highest share in 1996, but the expected growth rate is relatively low. (2) User application fields According to the user application fields of DC/DC switching power supplies, the market share and annual growth rate of each type of power supply are shown in Table 4. From the data in Table 4, it can be seen that similar to the situation of AC/DC power supplies, the annual growth rate of DC/DC switching power supplies in the fields of remote communication and digital communication is the highest, reaching 15.2%. 2 Development trend of small power converters in the next five years Literature [2] made a comprehensive comparison of the technology, price status and future development trends of three types of converters in the United States: 10-25W and 50-200W DC/DC converters and AC/DC converters within 500W, respectively shown in Table 5, Table 6 and Table 7. From this, we can see that the main development trend of small power converters in the next five years is: in order to adapt to the rapid development of ultra-high-speed CPU chips, DC/DC converters will develop in the direction of low output voltage (the lowest will be as low as 1.2V), low cost, high output current, high frequency (400-500kHz), high power density, high reliability (MTBF≥106h) and high efficiency. 3 Technical Direction of Low-voltage and High-current DC/DC Converter As mentioned above, modern microprocessors and some ultra-high-speed VLSI chips, such as Intel Penitum Pro, require operation Figure 2 Schematic diagram of interleaved superposition type quasi-square wave ripple cancellation conversion topology diagram 6 Main development trends of 10-25W DC/DC converter technology Technical requirements Current level Expected level in 2002 Cost 0.25-0.5 USD/W 0.1-0.25 USD/W Input voltage 9-12V 1.5-12V Output voltage 3.3-12V -1.2,3.3V Reliability (MTBF) Several megahours Several megahours Control Synchronous rectifier Power topology Buck/linear synchronous Switched capacitor Efficiency 85%-90% >90% Other magnetic materials: ferrite mounted on silicon wafer, ferrite mounted on silicon wafer Capacitor: New plastic capacitor Assembly: Multi-chip assembly line in low voltage (2.4 ~ 3.3V), high current (> 13A) state, while the DC bus voltage is usually 5 ~ 12V. This poses new challenges to its power supply (voltage adjustment module - VRM), see reference [4]. VRM is required to have very fast load current dynamic response, while ensuring a small enough volume and high efficiency. Table 8 shows the requirements of modern microprocessors for VRM: Table 8 Requirements of modern microprocessors for VRM Current and future Output voltage 2.1 ~ 3.5V 1 ~ 3V Load current 0.3 ~ 13A 1 ~ 50A Allowable output voltage change ± 5% ± 2% Decoupling capacitor current change rate 1A/ns 5A/ns In order to make VRM have a fast load current dynamic response, the traditional solution is to connect many large capacity and small equivalent series resistance decoupling capacitors in parallel at the output end of VRM. Obviously, this method has the following problems: (1) The decoupling capacitor is very large, and modern microprocessors have strict requirements on the size of VRM; (2) The decoupling capacitor can only improve the initial stage of dynamic response, but has no effect on the later stage and the total dynamic response time. For this reason, reference [3] proposed a staggered superposition type quasi-square wave ripple cancellation transformation topology. Its principle is shown in Figure 2. Table 9 compares the results of this solution with the traditional solution using large-capacity decoupling capacitors. The results show that this structure can not only greatly reduce the capacity of the output capacitor while ensuring the required output ripple, but also Technical Requirements Current Level Estimated Level in 2002 Cost 0.25~1.0 USD/W 0.15~0.5 USD/W Power Density 54.3W/cubic inch (300W) >108.6W/cubic inch 29.6W/cubic inch (50W) >59.2W/cubic inch Input Voltage 24,48V 24V,48V Output Voltage 3.3,5,15V -1.5,2.2,3.3,5,15V Reliability (MTBF) 1~10Mh 20Mh Control 400~500kHz 400~500kHz Power Topology Forward with Active Clamp Forward with Active Clamp, Dual Forward Efficiency 85％~90％ >90％ Other switches: MOSFETS (GaAs), on-resistance is reduced by two times, lower gate drive voltage Magnetic materials: more integrated core capacitors are used: capacitance density is increased by 2 to 3 times Assembly: modularization is increased, multi-chip assembly can also greatly reduce the inductance of the output filter inductor of the VRM. Table 9 Comparison results with traditional large-capacity decoupling capacitor solutions Interleaved quasi-square wave VRM Traditional VRM Total capacitance 1520μF 7000μF Inductance of output filter inductor 320nH (×2) 3.8μH Dynamic voltage drop 100mV 150mV In addition, in order to improve the dynamic response of the VRM, it is also necessary to strive to reduce the lead inductance of the power supply bus. The most effective way is to make the VRM "mounted on a printed circuit board" and directly installed near the load instead of using a centralized power supply. On the other hand, the VRM itself is also required to have a very small lead inductance. In order to ensure that the VRM has a sufficiently high efficiency, synchronous rectification and a flat ultra-thin transformer with very small leakage inductance must be used [3]. At present, the main manufacturers in the United States that can produce this new type of DC/DC converter - VRMs (Voltage Regulator Modules) are Astec, Celestica and VXI. In addition, another rapidly developing trend in future switching power supply systems is the integrated power protection system - IPPS (Integrated Power Protection System). At present, the company that does the best in this market is Canada's Amsdell, whose new process reduces the cost to a level comparable to that of PS/2 power supplies.