Some analysis, collection and sharing on the automotive inspection industry[Copy link]
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If the past and future development of China's new energy vehicles can be roughly divided into four stages: ① A hundred schools of thought contend: mainly based on technological competition, the technical route is gradually clear, but the market space has not yet opened up; ② Accelerated penetration: technology, production capacity and other aspects have reached the threshold, cost-effectiveness has improved, a certain degree of competitiveness has been formed, and the industry has accelerated penetration; ③ Intensified competition: industry penetration has begun to slow down, but production capacity is still climbing, competition among car companies and auto parts has intensified, price wars have intensified, car companies have begun to differentiate, and production capacity has been cleared; ④ Maturity and stability: the industry reshuffle has ended and a relatively stable pattern has been formed. In contrast, when the industry is accelerating penetration, there are relatively few models that can be launched. After maturity and stability, car companies and production capacity have been cleared. In the stage of intensified competition, as multiple car companies come up with their own tricks, the number of car companies and models will reach a peak. The more intense the competition for downstream market share, the more automobile testing can benefit from it, and strong inspections in vehicle testing have extremely high barriers.
The above can be divided into four aspects for detailed introduction:
1. The basic market is stable, and the number of models per year shows a steady upward trend.
There are two types of new models, one is new products, and the other is changes/expansions. For example, the BYD Haiba BYD7006BEVA1 has been changed five times in two years, which means that not only new cars are launched, but also old cars that have been modified need to be re-tested.
The automobile inspection industry has a solid foundation. With the development of my country's automobile industry, the number of models and automobile companies is on the rise. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of automobile manufacturing companies in my country has nearly doubled since 2012, when data was first collected.
According to the Announcement on Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (only models that have passed the inspection can apply for access), the number of new model announcements has shown an upward trend year by year. From January to November 2023, the cumulative number of products exceeded 100,000, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%.
(2) Under the background of electrification, the increase in mandatory inspection items has led to an increase in the price of each vehicle.
Compared with traditional cars, new energy vehicles have added power batteries, motors, electronic controls, charging devices and other components, while reducing engine, gearbox and other components. From the perspective of the links that need to be tested, the new test items that need to be added include power battery system testing, motor and controller testing, charging system testing, electromagnetic compatibility testing, etc. The overall new energy vehicle testing unit price is higher than that of traditional cars. As the penetration rate of electric vehicles increases, the unit price will also increase. According to Guolian Securities' assumptions, the average project testing price for fuel vehicles is 4,000 yuan (including new cars and modified and expanded vehicles, among which the testing price for modified/expanded vehicles and commercial vehicles is lower), and the average project testing price for new energy vehicles is 6,000 yuan.
3. Intelligent development represents new opportunities for new technologies
At present, the domestic new energy vehicle technology is still developing at a high speed, and more projects will enter the mandatory inspection standards in the future. The most predictable is intelligence. The trend of mandatory inspection for intelligent networking will bring incremental space for both mandatory inspection and non-mandatory inspection.
On the eve of industrial transformation, intelligent network testing is expected to shift from a non-mandatory inspection market to a mandatory inspection market. Currently, there are more than 500 new energy vehicle models on the market, but there are only more than 20 models with high-level autonomous driving capabilities (mainly Tesla and models with lidar), and there is huge room for improvement in penetration. At present, car companies dominated by new forces have a relatively deep accumulation in the field of autonomous driving, and industrialization is just around the corner. Under the catalysis of industrial trends and the expected implementation of L3 policies, intelligent network testing may be reflected in mandatory testing in the near future, and the potential market space is huge.
On the other hand, China's intelligent network testing currently belongs to the "R&D testing" part, that is, non-mandatory testing. The market space in this field is related to the number of intelligent supporting facilities of automobile companies (such as the number of sensors configured) and the penetration rate of autonomous driving at different levels. The non-mandatory testing of intelligent network will release performance before the mandatory testing, but the outbreak period will have to wait until it is included in the mandatory testing. According to the "one test, multiple tests", it is estimated that the market space will be several times that of the mandatory testing.
At present, the industrialization of intelligent driving is accelerating. On November 17, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments issued a notice on the pilot work of intelligent connected vehicle access and road access, as well as the "Guidelines for the Implementation of the Pilot of Intelligent Connected Vehicle Access and Road Access (Trial)". Among them, the "Notice" clarifies the access management requirements at the national level, supports automobile manufacturers and their intelligent connected vehicle products that have been fully tested and verified and have mass production application conditions, and can further realize commercial applications after obtaining access permits through pilots. In the "Guidelines", intelligent connected vehicle manufacturers are required to have design verification capabilities, safety assurance capabilities, safety testing capabilities, and user notification mechanisms; requirements are made for product technology, process assurance, and testing and verification of intelligent connected vehicle products; and users are required to have operational safety assurance capabilities, responsibility-bearing capabilities, network security and data security assurance capabilities, and operational safety assurance capabilities. While promoting the commercialization of intelligent networking, the "Notice" and "Guidelines" directly point to the requirements for intelligent networking testing. The "Guidelines for the Construction of the National Internet of Vehicles Industry Standard System (Intelligent Connected Vehicles) (2023 Edition)" points out that in the first phase, by 2025, a system of intelligent connected vehicle standards that can support the combined driving assistance and general functions of autonomous driving will be formed, and more than 100 intelligent connected vehicle standards will be formulated and revised. In the second phase, by 2030, a comprehensive intelligent connected vehicle standard system that can support the coordinated development of single-vehicle intelligence and network empowerment will be formed, more than 140 intelligent connected vehicle standards will be formulated and revised, and an implementation effect evaluation and dynamic improvement mechanism will be established.
According to the official website of China Radio and Television Metrology (002967.SZ), China Radio and Television Metrology currently provides 14 intelligent connected testing services, with each service valued at around 10,000 yuan. Considering the future diversification of services and comprehensive standards, and based on the calculation of 800,000 new car model tests, it is conservatively estimated that it will bring about an incremental space of about 15% for new energy vehicles.
(IV) The consumption attributes of automobiles are highly personalized, benefiting from the intensified competition among downstream automobile companies
Compared with other industries such as food, medicine, and electronic appliances, automobile consumption attributes are highly personalized, and different consumers have different preferences for different performance, functions, interiors, etc. After the new energy technology route is formed, the focus of research and development will also shift to adapting to the diverse needs of consumers, actively launching new models to seize market share, and the research and development cycle of new models will also be greatly shortened.
Judging from the sales data, the current high sales of new energy vehicles are concentrated in a few popular models. This is related to the fact that most of the current research and development is focused on technology rather than launching new models. On average, each car company has 5.15 models of fuel vehicles, while each car company has only 2.6 models of new energy vehicles. Conservatively assuming that the average number of models of new energy vehicles is equal to that of fuel vehicles, the number of models will reach 324, and the total number of models in the market will be 700, corresponding to a 29.6% growth space. Considering the shortened R&D cycle and increased personalized needs, there is greater room for growth.
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