Analysis of China's new energy data in July & Shanghai's new energy vehicle registration remains high

This article aims to make some preliminary analysis of the Shanghai new energy vehicle registration status released in July, as well as the new energy vehicle data in various dimensions in July.

Since 2021, new energy vehicles have reached a very strong state, and there are many points worthy of our attention.

1. Registration of new energy vehicles in Shanghai

As shown in the figure below, the number of new energy vehicles registered in July was 18,181, an increase of 81% year-on-year, continuing to maintain a high level. The registration data last month was 20,833. Although it decreased month-on-month, it can be seen that the overall demand for new energy vehicles remains high. From January to July 2021, the total number of new energy vehicles registered in Shanghai reached a record high of 135,400, which has completely surpassed the 117,000 units in 2020. According to this demand trend forecast, the total number of new energy vehicles in Shanghai in 2021 will reach 200,000+.

Figure 1: Registration of new energy vehicles in Shanghai

Compared with the overall license data, the number of cars registered in Shanghai in July was 49,116, down 12.66% from June and 15.17% from the same period last year. We can see that there is a year-on-year differentiation between new energy vehicles and traditional cars, which objectively reflects that many consumers in Shanghai have failed to bid for license plates many times and have turned to new energy vehicles as their regular cars. This mentality of no longer focusing on buying traditional cars and consumption conversion is more obvious in Shanghai.

Figure 2 Overall registration situation in Shanghai

II. Overview of the overall data of the China Passenger Car Association and certificates of conformity

1. China Passenger Car Association data

Here we can refine the data of the China Passenger Car Association: wholesale sales were 246,000 units, retail sales were 222,000 units, and the export data showed a difference of 24,000 units between these two data. However, the detailed items include Tesla exporting 24,347 units and SAIC Passenger Car exporting 4,407 units, which adds up to 29,000 units. This data does not seem to match.

From the wholesale data of automakers, the top ones are BYD with 50,387 units, Tesla China with 32,968 units, SAIC-GM-Wuling with 27,347 units, SAIC Passenger Car with 13,454 units, and GAC Aion with 10,506 units. Correspondingly, BYD sold 45,782 units, SAIC-GM-Wuling sold 32,800 units, and GAC Aion sold 10,604 units in retail sales. It can be inferred that Tesla's retail sales in July were only 8,621 units, no wonder it did not hesitate to lower the price.

Figure 4 New energy vehicle retail sales in July 2021

2. Certificate data

The data given by the China Passenger Car Association is 265,000 units, which should include all production. The domestic certificate data is 220,800 new energy passenger cars, including 44,000 BYD (22,400 pure electric and 21,000 hybrid), 31,900 Wuling, and 12,400 Changan. Compared with the above data, BYD's wholesale sales are higher than the production in July, and retail sales are also higher than the actual production in July. Changan's cars may gradually increase in the future.

As shown below, 2021 is indeed different from previous years in terms of reliance on subsidies and various constraints. The total output of new energy vehicles in 2021 is 1.456 million units. Based on an estimate of 250,000 units per month, this year's conservative estimate is 2.7 million units. If we are more optimistic (currently there is still a shortage of batteries), we can expect a higher number.

Figure 5 New energy vehicle production from 2015 to 2021

summary:

I think the next thing to focus on is where are all these cars sold to? What is the driving force behind their purchase? Can they continue to grow steadily?