The timetable for the delisting of traditional fuel vehicles has been released. How should new energy vehicles take over?

As global environmental issues become increasingly prominent, fuel vehicles, as one of the main "manufacturers" of greenhouse gases, have finally received a "verdict" concerning their future survival. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a reply to the "Suggestions on Studying and Formulating a Timetable for Banning the Sale of Fuel Vehicles to Accelerate the Construction of an Automobile Power" (hereinafter referred to as the "Reply"), which clearly stated that "my country will support qualified places to establish pilot fuel vehicle ban areas, and on the basis of success, coordinate research and formulate a timetable for the withdrawal of fuel vehicles."

The “fuel vehicle withdrawal timetable” means that the withdrawal of fuel vehicles from the domestic market is no longer just a paper talk. This has triggered discussions in the industry on how to coordinate the development of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles. Whether fuel vehicles can smoothly “retire” and whether new energy vehicles can smoothly “take over” is related to the transformation and survival of the automotive industry, as well as the interests of the majority of fuel vehicle and new energy vehicle users.

It has a long history and a clear pattern

In fact, the ban on fuel vehicles is not a recent move. Currently, more than a dozen countries and regions in the world have issued timetables for banning the sale of fuel vehicles. In 2015, California, the United States, first proposed a plan to ban the sale of traditional fuel vehicles by 2030. Subsequently, countries such as Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands and India successively announced their own timetables for banning the sale of fuel vehicles.

As countries have successively released their "timetables for banning the sale of fuel vehicles", as early as 2017, my country's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a signal of "studying and formulating a timetable for the withdrawal of fuel vehicles". In March this year, Hainan Province issued the "Clean Energy Vehicle Development Plan", stipulating that the sale of fuel vehicles will be completely banned in the province from 2030, becoming the first region in the country to propose clean energy goals and roadmaps for all vehicle segments. According to the "Research on the Timetable for the Withdrawal of Traditional Fuel Vehicles in China" report, my country is expected to achieve a complete withdrawal of traditional fuel vehicles by 2050.

Currently, many cities across the country have also started to launch the "fuel ban" work in the fields of buses and taxis. According to the plan of the Ministry of Transport, all buses in key areas across the country will be replaced with electric vehicles in 2020. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Joint Conference, said in an interview with reporters: "After the official disclosure of the written information from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the ban on fuel vehicles in some fields will be accelerated. More and more fuel taxis and buses will be replaced by electric vehicles."

The scope is wide and the difficulty is high

By the end of 2018, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country exceeded 3 million, ranking first in the world for four consecutive years. Today, the focus of the auto market seems to have shown a good sign of gradually shifting to new energy. "Whether it is due to environmental problems, resource problems, or policies, there are more and more new energy models on the market, and consumers are becoming more and more aware of them. The policies on new energy models are also changing with the market," said Cui Dongshu.

But despite this, the internal combustion engine still has huge room for development, and "banning the sale of fuel vehicles" is still a very controversial topic, which concerns industry safety and user interests.

The impact of the ban on fuel vehicles on sales is self-evident. Car sales in the ban area may even drop precipitously. As the world's largest auto market, my country has huge production, sales, and car ownership. The resistance to the implementation of the ban on fuel vehicles can be imagined.

"When to set up the restricted zone, the area, time and rules are all issues that need to be carefully weighed and considered. Even the social problems caused by the public's resistance are very thorny." Cui Dongshu said, "Secondly, even if a fuel vehicle restricted zone is set up, how to replace the transportation in the restricted zone with other means, in addition to electric vehicles, whether the improvement of public transportation can meet the travel needs of ordinary citizens, these are all very serious problems."

In addition, judging from the data, although my country's new energy vehicles are in a period of vigorous development - from January to July 2018, my country's production and sales of new energy vehicles were 701,000 and 699,000, a year-on-year increase of 39.1% and 40.9% - but compared with my country's huge overall automobile volume, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles is even less than 5% of the total, which shows that it is very difficult for them to replace traditional fuel vehicles in the short term.

Adapt to local conditions and don’t be blind

my country's basic national conditions are "vast territory and uneven development" and the "ban on burning" pilot projects should also be adapted to local conditions and classified measures should be implemented.

In this regard, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology does not intend to "cut across the board". Judging from the "Reply", it mentions that it will support qualified regions to carry out pilot work, which can only be implemented after success, but these will be a bit difficult to achieve.

To break this deadlock, not only do car companies need to increase technology research and development, but the government and companies also need to improve various supporting measures to improve the driving experience of new energy vehicles. "This may be a very difficult process, requiring a lot of determination and cost, and countless problems will emerge in the process, but since the development direction cannot be changed, we can only try our best to do it well," Cui Dongshu said.

"In the future, new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles need to develop in a coordinated manner." Cui Dongshu pointed out, "Although my country is relatively prominent in the development of new energy vehicles, the energy conservation and emission reduction work of traditional fuel vehicles in my country has not been done well, especially hybrid vehicles, which are the 'main force of emission reduction' in the transition period, are still a shortcoming."

In addition, according to the information currently released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, before my country's comprehensive "ban on fuel", it is necessary to set up pilot no-drive zones for fuel vehicles. The pilot will inevitably involve evaluation and acceptance and other work. At present, this area is still a blank area in China. Therefore, the industry generally believes that my country's comprehensive "ban on fuel" will not be implemented until 2040 or even 2050, so there is no need to panic now.

It will take a relatively long time to set up fuel vehicle ban zones or ban the sale of fuel vehicles. At present, traditional fuel vehicles are still the main body of domestic automobiles, and as a pillar industry, the importance and influence of automobiles on domestic economic development are self-evident. Any relevant policy implementation needs to be cautious.