Analysis of the top 10 global power batteries in the first half of 2024

According to data from Gaogong Industry Research Institute (GGII), global new energy vehicle sales will reach approximately 6.836 million units in the first half of 2024 , driving global power battery installations to approximately 346.5G Wh .

The top 10 global power battery companies in the first half of 2024 are CATL , BYD , LGES, Panasonic, Sinovac, SK on, Samsung SDI, Gotion High-tech, EVE Energy, and Farasis Energy, with a total installed capacity of approximately 317.8GWh, accounting for 92% of the total installed power capacity.

Among them, Chinese companies occupy 6 seats in the world's top 10 power battery companies, with a total installed capacity of 214.1GWh, accounting for two-thirds of the total installed capacity of power batteries, further eroding the market share of Japanese and Korean companies.

Overall, the global TOP10 power battery market is becoming more stable, but it is no longer easy to maintain market share. Coupled with the wavering attitude towards electrification overseas and the start of new technologies such as solid-state batteries , the uncertainty of competition in the global power market has intensified.

TOP10: The pattern is gradually stabilizing, but the market share is declining

The global TOP10 pattern is stable in the first half of 2024, and the ranking remains unchanged from the end of 2023, but the total installed capacity share of the TOP10 has declined significantly, down 2pct from the end of 2023, with the declining companies mainly in Japan and South Korea.

Taking the overall growth of 14% in global power installed capacity as an observation indicator, all 6 Chinese companies among the TOP10 outperformed the basic market, while Japanese and Korean companies maintained their growth with difficulty.

Look at it in stages:

TOP1 CATL's position as the global leader has become increasingly solid, with its market share further increasing from one-third in the past to its historical high of 40% in the world, leaving the second place 23pct behind and continuing to lead the world.

Among the top 2-5, the top 2 BYD and the top 5 Sinotruk achieved year-on-year growth in installed capacity, while the top 3 LGES and the top 4 Panasonic saw a significant year-on-year decline in installed capacity. Sinotruk grew 34% year-on-year, while Panasonic fell more than 30%, and the gap between the top 4 and top 5 further narrowed.

Among the TOP6-10, Guoxuan High-tech and Yiwei Lithium Energy achieved year-on-year growth of more than 30%, continuing to expand their market share.

The installed capacity of "other" companies increased by 89% year-on-year, and the market share expanded by 2pct compared with the end of 2023, eroding the market share of the TOP10 companies, especially Japanese and Korean companies. The performance of Japanese and Korean companies in the TOP10 continued to decline in the first half of 2024.

Global electrification: more variables

The high growth rate of global new energy vehicle sales will only last for one year in 2023. In 2024, the variables in the three major electrification fields of China, the United States and Europe will increase sharply, and the uncertainty of Chinese lithium battery industry chain companies going overseas will increase.

China's leading position in the global new energy market remains unchanged. According to GGII data, domestic new energy vehicle sales in the first half of 2024 were about 4.279 million, a year-on-year increase of 41%, far exceeding the global growth of 16%.

After weathering the cold, the domestic auto market maintained a 40% growth in the first half of the year under the fierce "price-for-volume" strategy of auto brands. In July, the domestic terminal sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%, a record high. Combined with a new round of domestic "old for new" subsidy policies, it is expected that the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 will reach 11.5 million.

The turning point of the power battery industry chain has arrived. Especially in the peak season, orders for batteries and main materials have rebounded, capacity utilization has increased, and the pace of clearance has accelerated. The prices of batteries, diaphragms, and negative electrodes have stopped falling, while the prices of positive electrodes and electrolytes are still fluctuating due to the decline in lithium prices.

The direction of electrification in the United States is "in doubt." During the U.S. election, the Democratic Party represented by Hamas and the Republican Party represented by Trump have obvious differences in the development of new energy.

Specifically, the Democratic Party, holding high the banner of energy transformation, will strengthen the construction of new energy vehicle infrastructure in the United States; reduce taxes and fees on new energy vehicles in the United States to promote the penetration of new energy vehicles; but will tighten restrictions on non-local electric vehicles and lithium battery industry chains represented by China, and support the development of local electric vehicles and supply chains.

The Republicans criticized the Democrats' green policies for damaging the interests of the US auto industry . If the Republicans are elected, the US new energy vehicle policy is likely to be "overturned" or return to the fuel route.

Regardless of which party is elected, the United States will inevitably take measures to suppress the development of non-local electric vehicle industry chain companies in trade to catch up with the United States' backwardness in this link. However, the U.S. Department of Commerce disclosed that the high tariffs on a series of products including electric vehicles and batteries from China, which were originally scheduled to start on August 1, have been postponed for at least two weeks. The impact of the subsequent U.S. new energy policy remains to be seen.

The European new energy vehicle market is weak. Relevant data shows that in the first half of 2024, the European electric vehicle market will grow by only 1%, and the EU has issued corresponding policies for China's new energy vehicles and power batteries.

In terms of electric vehicles, on July 4, the European Commission officially announced the imposition of temporary anti-subsidy duties on electric vehicles imported from China; in terms of power batteries, the EU's "New Battery Law" will officially take effect on August 17, 2023, and from July 2024, it will require most batteries exported to Europe (including electric vehicle batteries , etc.) to provide carbon footprint declarations and labels. In addition, the regulations also strengthen battery recycling management, and plan to classify carbon emissions, set relevant thresholds, and require batteries to meet relevant carbon footprint limit requirements in July 2027.

Overall, the tightening of restrictions by the United States and Europe on China's power battery industry chain has increased uncertainty in both product exports and overseas factory construction. In particular, for battery companies that have already embarked on the road to overseas expansion, the time, investment cost, and compliance cost of overseas capacity construction are far higher than those in China. Based on the industry's views, the profit sharing cycle in overseas markets is longer, and during the turbulent period of overseas expansion, it is necessary to be cautious, asset-light, small-scale, and use technology licensing or joint ventures to avoid risks.

The starting point of global new technologies: solid-state batteries and sodium batteries

Undoubtedly, new technologies have become a new theme of global market competition. China has formed an absolute advantage in the field of liquid lithium batteries , and overseas countries are actively exploring new technologies such as solid-state batteries and sodium batteries, taking the initiative in the new track. Especially in the field of solid-state batteries, the world has its own advantages and is starting from the same starting point.

In terms of solid-state batteries, overseas countries, especially Japan, have patent advantages in the development of sulfides, and Japan and South Korea have invested a lot of talent and funds in material development and application development. China has basic advantages in the industrial chain, and while tackling technical problems, it is rapidly scaling up and has great room for cost reduction.

In terms of sodium batteries, there are already several sodium battery projects around the world. German battery developer Nacelle has launched a trial production line for sodium-ion batteries . In addition, Peak Energy in the United States has also received a large amount of financing to build a sodium battery factory. Another sodium-ion battery startup, Natron Energy, will invest $1.4 billion (equivalent to about 10.03 billion yuan) to build its first large-scale factory in North Carolina, USA.

In the long run, sodium battery technology has broad application prospects in energy storage, electric vehicles and other fields. As the global demand for clean energy and sustainable development continues to increase, sodium battery technology may gain more attention worldwide. The domestic sodium battery industrialization has been at the forefront of the world, and has achieved initial breakthroughs in three major routes in technology. At present, it has been exploring applications in energy storage, two-wheeled vehicles, start-stop power supplies and other markets.

CATL

CATL’s global market share is approaching 40%.

In the adjustment cycle of the lithium battery industry chain, CATL's manufacturing advantages and profitability have become increasingly prominent. CATL's 2024 semi-annual report disclosed that its net profit in the first half of the year was 22.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%; its overseas revenue was 50.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, accounting for 30% of the total revenue. The proportion of overseas revenue has slightly decreased compared with 2023, which is expected to be mainly due to the decline in the unit price of overseas battery cells and weak power demand.