Ouyang Minggao: Automotive power relies on the four modernizations to seize intelligence opportunities

On March 16, at the China Electric Vehicles 100 Forum (2024), Ouyang Minggao, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicles 100 and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, published "A powerful automobile country relies on four modernizations: electrification, intelligence, low carbonization, and globalization" "In response to various doubts about new energy vehicles" speech, he said: "New energy vehicles are actually an important part of the entire new energy technology system, and they are the core part and the leading part. I think plug-ins will come up. In the next few years, it is even possible that plug-in and pure electricity will account for half each. Of course, pure electricity will come back in 5-10 years. In the end, pure electricity will still be the main body, but in the near future we must see the periodicity and structure Sexual factors are very important."

"Ouyang Minggao, Vice Chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100 and Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences"

The following is a transcript of the content:

Dear Chairman Wan Gang, Chairman Chen Qingtai, Minister Miao, Minister Shan, distinguished leaders, academicians, experts, and colleagues:

good afternoon everyone! Just now, Chairman Wan asked me to talk about all-solid-state batteries, but I didn’t bring my laptop today, so I can’t change it at the moment. I’m not going to talk about a particularly technical topic today, but mainly to respond to the various doubts about new energy vehicles in the current society. .

Our conference, on the one hand, is within the industry. I think it is very important now that the whole society is paying attention to new energy vehicles, so related science popularization seems to be very important, because there are many people watching online and there are many media. I hope Through you, we will deliver a rational voice to our customers and consumers across the country. I chose a topic called "A powerful automobile country relies on four modernizations: electrification, intelligence, low carbonization, and globalization."

I would like to respond to a few questions below: First, regarding the issue of development strategy. Second, there are current technical issues. Third, there is the issue of future prospects.

First, the issue of development strategy.

Who is leading the charge in electrification? A large number of people on the Internet say that electrification is a trap set by the West. In fact, this is not true. The development of new energy vehicles is a major national strategy implemented by the Chinese government that comprehensively considers oil security, air pollution, and industrial upgrading.

There is a series of data showing that China is leading the electrification revolution. In 2015, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles ranked first in the world. This is the first time that China has successfully introduced high-tech civilian consumer goods on a large scale in the world. In the past, radios, televisions, etc. were first popularized abroad and then introduced to China. China, but not new energy vehicles. We are the first to successfully introduce new energy vehicles on a large scale.

When did foreign countries start to transform? It was 2016, and 2016 was a landmark year for the global "pure electric drive" technology transformation. This PPT was not made by me today, it was made before. This is history. After China's new energy vehicle market share exceeded 1%, various countries began to transform. These were some of their plans at the time. Seeing that China's new energy vehicle industrialization took the lead, foreign countries started to move from the product introduction period to the industry growth stage. Transformation, because this development trend is irreversible.

Regarding intelligence, China is also one of the leading countries in intelligence. Some people say that fuel vehicles can also drive autonomously. Why do we have to use electric vehicles? Electric vehicles have the inherent advantage of being intelligent. Autonomous driving of fuel vehicles cannot compete with electric vehicles. I come from an engine background, and I was engaged in engine control back then. Engine control is very difficult, and engine control is precise. The performance cannot be compared with motor control, and its response time cannot be compared. This is common sense, so we hope to convey this common sense to all consumers, and the current market performance is also that the popularity of automatic driving of new energy vehicles has greatly increased. higher than fuel vehicles.

There is another saying that electric vehicles are not new energy vehicles. Everyone knows that China is the world leader in new energy. According to the current power structure, electric vehicles will reduce carbon emissions during their entire life cycle by more than 40% compared to fuel vehicles. In 2030, according to the current development speed, China's wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 3 billion kilowatts. Last year, China's wind power and photovoltaic capacity exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, and 290 million kilowatts were added last year. In the next seven years, we can also add 2 billion kilowatts according to this figure. , in 2030, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power will be 2.5 times that of coal power, and the total power generation from non-fossil energy will exceed 60%. Therefore, electric vehicles will become new energy electric vehicles that mainly consume green electricity.

Nowadays, there is electrosynthetic fuel in the world, called E-FUEL. One logic is, why should I build an electric car? If I turn the internal combustion engine into E-FUEL, isn't it a new energy source? Yes, it can, because renewable energy itself can generate electricity and produce hydrogen. After producing hydrogen and then adding carbon, it is electro-synthetic fuel. Although the use end of synthetic fuel does not need to build infrastructure, the production end does. infrastructure. In addition, when we produce 1L of synthetic fuel, nearly 2.9-3.6 kilograms of carbon dioxide must be captured from the air, which consumes a lot of energy. There is also a view in China that instead of capturing the carbon dioxide from the air, we can just take the carbon dioxide from the coal chemical industry and use it. But this is not a carbon-neutral fuel, because the carbon already exists, and you have not reduced carbon, so it is not carbon neutral. of.

International oil companies that produce synthetic fuels predict that by 2050, the price of electro-synthetic fuels will be US$1 per liter. So the current mainstream view is that aircraft fuel needs to use E-FUEL, which is a must. Marine fuel oil may also use E-FUEL, but there is no need for cars. Comparing renewable energy power generation, hydrogen production, and fuel production, this is an EU report. The data is based on Shell. The efficiency of direct electrification in the entire life cycle of electric vehicles is 77%-81%. It is 77% now and 81% in 2050. %; if hydrogen is produced to produce hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the current efficiency is 33% and will be 42% in 2050; if diesel is produced to produce diesel-engine vehicles, the current efficiency is 20% and the efficiency will be 22% in 2050. If it is produced with gasoline, it will be even lower. 16%, 18% in the future. So in this sense, electric vehicles are far ahead and have the highest cost performance, because low efficiency means high cost. Therefore, electric vehicles are the mainstream technical route for low-carbon automobiles, while electrosynthetic fuel internal combustion engine vehicles are not.

Another thing that internal combustion engines using electrosynthetic fuels cannot do is interact with new energy electric vehicles. Electric vehicles can interact in real time to eliminate medium and high-frequency fluctuations in the power grid. Internal combustion engines using electrosynthetic fuels cannot do this. . New energy vehicles are actually an important part of the entire new energy technology system, and they are the core part and the leading part, because our smart energy systems require vehicles, such as the integrated optical storage, charging and discharging system deployed along the highway, or the optical An integrated hydrogen storage, charging and discharging system has now begun to be developed in Inner Mongolia. There is also vehicle-to-road-cloud integration, which we do in the south; there is also RV-to-road-to-cloud integration. Our team has a smart low-carbon construction engineering center in Shenzhen of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, which is engaged in RV-to-road and cloud integration. The Group, China Construction Science and Technology, and China Construction Science and Technology worked together to do this.

In addition, most energy storage technologies come from electric vehicles. Hydrogen energy vehicles have driven the development of the entire hydrogen energy chain. In the future, hydrogen energy will be the main means of long-term energy storage. Our current power plants are coal-fired, and photovoltaic and wind power are gradually becoming more and more popular. As more and more coal power is produced, it no longer needs to generate so much electricity, and it becomes a regulated power supply. Nowadays, when building large-scale photovoltaic and wind power bases, a coal power plant must be built for regulation. Now it burns coal, but in the future, photovoltaic and wind power will be used to electrolyze water to produce hydrogen. This is the so-called hydrogen energy storage, and the most important long-term large-scale hydrogen storage Energy, so a completely zero-carbon system can be built in the north because of hydrogen energy storage. Without hydrogen energy storage and long-term energy storage, it is impossible to build a pure zero-carbon energy system. The second type, the current medium and long-term energy storage, is within 10 hours, which can rely on electrochemistry, that is, batteries. This is also developed from car batteries. It will become the main body of mid-cycle energy storage, and of course there are many others. As we all know, no matter how much pumped hydro storage can do, reaching 100 million kilowatts in 2030 is already at its peak, but our battery energy storage can produce 100 million kilowatts in one year, which is incomparable. Last year, more than 30 million kilowatts of electrochemical energy storage were built, and more than 50 million kilowatts of pumped hydro energy storage were built after so many years. The third type, short-cycle energy storage, within 2 hours, will definitely be electric vehicles in the future, because the energy storage of electric vehicles is too large. In 2040, there will be 300 million vehicles with 20 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity installed on them, half of which will be used for storage. 10 billion kWh, very huge. Therefore, the three mainstream technical routes for full-cycle energy storage are all related to new energy vehicles. This is something that electro-synthetic fuel vehicles cannot do, and it is simply impossible to do, so this is a strategic issue.