Sodium batteries usher in the "first year" of mass production, and many listed companies disclose layout progress

Recently, news about the mass production of sodium batteries has once again aroused market discussion.

At the "Second National Sodium Battery Seminar" held recently, the industry's first sodium-ion battery test vehicle jointly built by Jiangxi Automobile Group and Zhongke Haina was publicly unveiled. Sodium-ion batteries have entered the fast lane in the field of new energy vehicle applications. .

At present, our country has taken the lead in realizing the mass production of sodium-ion batteries. More and more companies have begun to disclose the relevant layout and performance indicators of their sodium-ion batteries. The supporting positive and negative electrode materials , electrolytes and other industrial chains have also begun. form. According to Qidian Research, 2023 will be the "first year" of mass production of sodium batteries, with annual shipments expected to reach 12GWh.

01

Many listed companies disclose layout progress

Recently, a number of listed companies have disclosed the related layout progress of sodium-ion batteries.

On March 14, Chuanyi Technology stated on the interactive platform that the commissioning of the company's sodium-ion battery phase I project production line has been completed, supporting facilities are ready, and trial production is about to begin.

According to China Securities Journal, Tianci Materials’ first sodium battery material project has received project registration and is currently being accelerated. The company has been able to systematically provide sodium-ion battery electrolyte solutions, including core electrolytes, additives and supporting solutions.

Midland New Materials and Qicai Chemical announced that they plan to acquire Huihong Technology to promote the industrialization process of Prussian blue route sodium-ion batteries.

Looking at the timeline, in terms of battery manufacturers, CATL , Honeycomb Energy, Sunwanda , etc. have also released news about the loading of sodium-ion batteries. According to China Business News, CATL will officially mass-produce sodium-ion batteries this year and will be the first to be used in A00-class vehicles. The first vehicle is the facelift of SAIC Kelaiwei, and the project has been designated.

Honeycomb Energy's second-generation sodium-ion battery product is under development. It is expected to complete the design and finalization in the first quarter of 2023, with an energy density of 135Wh/kg. It plans to complete the development of a 160Wh/kg sodium-ion battery in the fourth quarter of 2023, with an estimated cycle life of more than 2,000 week.

Sunwanda stated on the investor interaction platform that the company is currently developing sodium-ion batteries, and the overall product development progress is in line with our expectations. According to previously disclosed information, Sunwanda sodium-ion battery samples are already undergoing testing and verification, and the specific launch plan will be determined based on customer demand.

According to incomplete statistics, at present, Zhongke Haina, Huayang Co., Ltd., Penghui Energy, Duofuoduo, Funeng Technology , Sunwoda, and Midland New Materials have publicly announced that they will form sodium-ion batteries as soon as 2023. Mass production capability.

Zheshang Securities pointed out that at present, companies such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech , Yiwei Lithium Energy , and Xinwangda are in the stage of sodium-ion battery research and development and technology reserve; companies such as Peneng Technology and Baichuan Co., Ltd. are in the small trial stage; Penghui Energy, Tongxing Environmental protection, Chuanyi Technology, etc. have entered the pilot stage; CATL, Veken Technology, and Funeng Technology have clear production capacity plans and are in the early stages of mass production layout.

02

Sodium batteries have broad application prospects

The overall performance of sodium batteries is close to that of lithium batteries , with slightly lower energy density, but outstanding low temperature, safety and rate performance.

In terms of energy density, under the current technical conditions, the cell energy density of sodium-ion batteries is about 70-200Wh/kg, which is higher than the 30-50Wh/kg of lead-acid batteries and compared with the 200-350Wh of ternary lithium batteries /kg is inferior, but it overlaps with the 150-210Wh/kg of lithium iron phosphate batteries , and there is still a lot of room for technological progress.

In terms of low-temperature performance, compared with the operating temperature range of lithium-ion batteries from -20°C to 60°C, sodium-ion batteries can operate normally in the temperature range from -40°C to 50°C, with a capacity retention rate of nearly 90% in a -20°C environment. Better high and low temperature performance.

In terms of safety, thanks to higher internal resistance, sodium-ion batteries instantly generate less heat under short-circuit conditions, and their thermal runaway temperature is higher than that of lithium-ion batteries, making them safer.

Data source: Warner New Materials, Bridge Capital industry analysis

此外，钠电池成本优势也格外显著。原料端碳酸钠提炼简单、价格远低于碳酸锂。据中科海钠测算，当超过100GWh的大规模生产实现后，每生产1GWh钠离子电池的直接材料成本比磷酸铁锂电池低30%~40%。

Overall, sodium electricity has a large potential demand, and it can be the first to enter the low-speed electric vehicle and communication backup energy storage tracks. It can be applied in the direction of power batteries + large storage in the medium and long term.

In the short term, areas with low battery thresholds such as low-speed four-wheel vehicles and communication backup energy storage are expected to be the first to apply sodium power. Tianfeng Securities predicts that the node for industrialization will be Q2 of 2023, and the time point for scale-up will be H2 of 2023. , the shipment scale of sodium batteries in 2023 is expected to be 5-10GWh.

In the medium and long term, the core of the development of the sodium battery industry lies in the continued development of application fields. It is expected that based on the current mature layered oxide cathode system, sodium batteries are expected to be put into large quantities in low-end passenger cars in H1 in 2024 . However, the layered oxide system has certain limitations in terms of cycle life. The development of large-scale storage requires the further maturity of polyanion cathodes and electrolyte systems. It is expected that sodium electricity will gradually penetrate the large-scale storage field after H2 in 2024. Tianfeng Securities predicts that the total space for sodium power in 2025 is expected to be around 100GWh.

03

What impact will it have on the lithium battery industry?

If sodium-ion batteries are successfully scaled up, their cost advantages will inevitably have an impact on the lithium battery industry. At present, the mainstream view in the market is that sodium batteries are more about supplementation and balance.

First of all, sodium batteries must be industrialized to reduce costs. The production cost of sodium-ion batteries at the current stage is still relatively high, and the time point for industrialization and mass production has not yet arrived. In the next two to three years, a certain amount of production capacity can be gradually released, and the cost-effectiveness will be highlighted.

Secondly, the number of cycles is the biggest shortcoming. In terms of cycle times, sodium-ion batteries are generally 2000-4000 times, while lithium-ion batteries are generally more than 4000 times. The short battery replacement cycle of sodium batteries will be a major constraint.

In fact, the future market space of sodium-ion batteries is mainly in the field of energy storage. According to a research report by Caitong Securities, the demand for sodium-ion batteries in the energy storage field will grow from 0GWh in 2021 to 48.74GWh in 2025. In 2025, more than 66% of sodium-ion batteries will be used in the energy storage field.

However, the competition between sodium batteries, lithium batteries, and lead-acid batteries is dynamic. If you sail against the current, you will retreat if you don’t advance. Qidian Research CEO Li Zhenqiang believes that sodium battery is not a supplement to the lithium battery industry, but a substitute. Comparing with lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate batteries upwards , and replacing lead-acid batteries downwards. If the old forces in lithium batteries and lead-acid batteries do not go all out, they will be cut off by the new forces in sodium batteries.