Who will be the ultimate winner in the global competition of the power battery industry?

There are two main tracks in the development of the new energy vehicle industry. The first mover is electrification, and the second mover is intelligence. As a disruptor of the traditional oil industry and the core technology of electrification innovation, power batteries have become the "outlet" of the new energy vehicle industry. The global automotive industry has a strong trend of new energy, and power batteries with continuously iterating technologies are becoming a booster for industrial transformation.

As the "heart" of new energy vehicles, power batteries determine many key vehicle performance parameters. Overall, power batteries are developing along the two technical routes of high specific energy and high safety. With the continuous iteration of various subdivided technologies, future new energy vehicle power batteries will fully meet the needs of car owners in terms of driving range , charging time, driving safety, etc.

Against the backdrop of the explosion of the global new energy vehicle sales market, global power battery-related companies have ushered in unprecedented development opportunities. In early June 2022, iResearch officially released the "2022 Global New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Development Research", which comprehensively analyzes the technical principles of power batteries, the current status of the global market, and classic corporate cases, and conducts multi-dimensional research and interpretation of the current competitive landscape of power battery companies, and provides insights and predictions on the future development trends of the power battery industry.

Global sales of new energy vehicles and installed capacity of power batteries have seen explosive growth

In 2021, a total of 6.5 million new energy vehicles were sold worldwide, of which 3.52 million were sold in China, accounting for 54%. At the same time, the global lithium power battery industry has maintained rapid growth with the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry. In 2021, the global installed capacity of power batteries reached 297GWh, doubling year-on-year, with an average installed capacity of 45.7KWh per vehicle.

iResearch predicts that by 2025, the total global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 25.8 million units, and the global installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries will reach 1,485GWh, and the average installed capacity per vehicle will also increase to 57.6KWh.

Power battery companies are frantically expanding production in the three major new energy vehicle consumption regions of China, Europe and North America

According to the production capacity planning of major global power battery companies, the total output of power batteries is expected to be about 1TWh in 2022 and will exceed 3TWh in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 51% from 2021 to 2025. During the same period, the compound growth rate of the North American market was 72%, and its production capacity accelerated to catch up with China and Europe, which already have large volumes; iResearch believes that the production area of ​​power batteries overlaps with the core areas of new energy vehicle production and consumption, reflecting the principle of proximity.

Among the leading power battery companies, CATL's main production base is in China, its German factory will soon supply Europe, and its US factory is under planning. LG Energy Solution, Panasonic and SK On have already deployed production capacity in China, Europe and North America. BYD (Fudi Battery) has all its production capacity in China. By 2025, the overall production capacity of power batteries can fully meet the needs of automakers, but E-IO think tank believes that the supply of high-quality production capacity is still relatively tight.

CATL is a quasi-"hexagonal warrior" among power battery companies

E-IO Intelligence selected the top companies in the world in terms of installed capacity of power batteries from 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, and used the SPC model to analyze the competitiveness of companies that have entered the existing power battery industry. Currently, the power battery company in the core area is CATL, and there are three companies in the secondary core area, namely BYD, Panasonic and LG Energy Solution. The three companies have performed well in terms of strategy and values, product and technology drive, and customer and business capabilities. The four core companies in the A and B central areas have become important promoters of the transformation of the global power battery industry, and other competitors are also catching up in their respective advantageous areas.

Core area: CATL is a benchmark company in the global power battery industry with an excellent strategic layout. Its products cover both ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate . Its customers also cover many domestic car companies. The only drawback at this stage is that it has not proven itself with sales in overseas markets.

Secondary core area: BYD's long-term investment in the field of power batteries has demonstrated its corporate value, and its blade batteries have opened up the market at the product level; Panasonic's cylindrical batteries are a representative of its technological research and development capabilities, and its cooperation with Tesla has enhanced its brand reputation; LG has won the cooperation of many car companies with its excellent management capabilities and rapid global layout.

Future technology outlook: 4680 power battery reduces costs and increases efficiency, and its share will reach 30% in 2025

The large cylindrical 4680 power battery relies on the innovative structural design of "no pole ear" to effectively solve the problem of heat generation, making the mass production of high-nickel low-cobalt or high-nickel cobalt-free batteries possible. At the same time, the 4680 battery brings a series of technological innovations and extensions. The high consistency ensures the safety of high-voltage charging, and the extremely high degree of standardization facilitates mass production. It is compatible with CTC technology and integrated die-cast body, which greatly reduces the overall manufacturing cost.

The technological breakthrough of large cylindrical 4680 power batteries is expected to drive the rapid growth of the relevant market from 0 to 1 to N in the next five years. The investment of enterprises in related technologies will be rewarded in the application of mid-to-high-end new energy vehicles. Companies that have invested in research and development include Tesla, Panasonic, EVE Energy , Samsung, CATL, and BAK Battery. EO Intelligence predicts that the market share of cylindrical power batteries will reach about 30% by 2025.

Future ecological outlook: lithium imports peak in 2030, domestic lithium self-sufficiency in 2040, lithium resource recycling in 2050

Lithium resources are key raw materials power batteries and battery energy storage , and are also a necessary condition for achieving an energy revolution. In the short term, China mainly relies on imported lithium resources to ensure adequate supply; in the medium term, iResearch predicts that by 2040, China's lithium resources will be self-sufficient in domestic mining and use; in the long term, by 2050, the demand for lithium salts for power batteries, energy storage, etc. can be met by lithium resource recycling alone, forming a self-sufficient internal cycle of lithium and "zero" mining.

Looking at the entire industry chain of lithium resource recycling, due to the huge differences in battery status, complex processes, numerous upstream and downstream companies, and consumers' lack of experience and knowledge, relying solely on power battery companies to promote or establish regional battery recycling centers will not be able to meet the needs of the power battery recycling market and policy and regulatory requirements in the long run. E-IO Intelligence believes that establishing an efficient information-based trading platform for retired batteries will greatly improve the problem of poor circulation of physical resources and information resources, effectively enhance the ability to integrate lithium resources and promote market-oriented transactions.

The new energy vehicle power battery market is entering a rapid development stage. With the continuous development and advancement of power battery technology, power battery products with higher ease of use, higher energy density and higher safety will be gradually installed in future new energy vehicles and even become part of the smart power network.

The world is moving fast. The global automotive industry chain has undergone tremendous changes due to the rapid rise of power battery companies. The combination of battery + motor has replaced the traditional internal combustion engine + gearbox. The new global supply chain system has taken shape, but the introduction of new technologies in the future will continue to bring tremendous vitality and progress to the entire industry.

In the fiercely competitive power battery market, companies that rely on their technical strength can be invincible, which is the right way to win. However, looking at the development of the entire industry chain, companies that have a global vision and pattern, actively expand their "circle of friends", and boldly implement strategic goals will dominate other players, which is the way to win.

Who will be the ultimate winner in the global competition of the power battery industry? From 2025 to 2030, let us wait and see.